We got our first set of answers this week when it comes to the bracket. The committee did its first top 16 reveal of the season, and it was a doozy. There were some answers, but mostly questions. However, it took just one day for all their hard work to be thrown into chaos. Here is my projection in this week’s edition of Bracketology after another wild week of women’s college basketball.
We will start at the top and work through some of the key points that led to the shape of this bracket:
The top three overall seeds didn’t change this week. The committee did shake things up, though, by putting Vanderbilt over Texas after the Commodores beat the Longhorns on Thursday. I would have reflected that if it weren’t for the fact that Vanderbilt went on to lose on Sunday to Georgia. That loss pushed Vanderbilt back down to a No. 2 seed, but they definitely still will have chances at that one seed before Selection Sunday.
The second Kentucky got knocked out of a hosting seed, they pulled themselves back in. The Wildcats got two dominant wins this week, including one over Mississippi, which has them back as my final No. 4 seed. The committee showed in their release Saturday that head-to-head wins are heavily valued, and that’s why Kentucky’s win over Mississippi gives them the nod over the Rebels.
The free fall continues for the Stanford Cardinal, who have lost eight of their last 10 games. This is why they have fallen out of my bracket completely to the first team out. They got swept by the Virginia schools this week, two teams on the bubble themselves, and are now in danger of missing a second straight NCAA tournament. Also, welcome Princeton to the last four in. After Columbia’s regular season sweep of the Tigers, Princeton joins those on the edge of the bubble and pushed another team onto the wrong side of it.
The biggest risers of the bracket over the past week were the Kentucky Wildcats. Again, the two impressive wins this week, combined with some losses from teams around them, moved them up two seed lines and back into a hosting spot.
The biggest faller of the week was Nebraska. The Cornhuskers have been ice-cold in February. They haven’t won a game but have played the top of the Big 10 during this stretch, with losses to Ohio State, Michigan, Maryland, Minnesota, and Iowa. Nebraska sees itself just outside of my last four in and needs to win some games before the conference tournament to feel secure in the bracket.
5 games that will have the greatest impact on the bracket over the next week:
Arizona State vs Iowa State, Feb. 18
Baylor vs Texas Tech, Feb. 19
Nebraska vs Oregon, Feb. 19
Kentucky vs Vanderbilt, Feb. 22
Michigan vs Iowa, Feb. 22
One mid-major game that will most impact the bracket over the next week:
Ball State vs Miami (OH), Feb. 21
Bracketology methodology
Here are some basic bracket rules that help influence my bracket:
- The top four seed lines in each region shall be from different conferences unless a conference has more than four teams in the top 16 (making this rule impossible to follow, as is the case with the SEC and Big 10 in my bracket).
- Teams from the same conference shall not be projected to meet until the Elite Eight if they met three times during the regular season, or the Sweet 16 if they met twice. Because we don’t know what will happen in conference tournaments, I am assuming every conference team will face each other one more time than what is on their schedule. I was able to keep conference teams apart until the Elite Eight, except for one matchup that would require a last-four-in team to pull off an upset.
- In order to comply with bracket rules, it is acceptable to move a team up or down one seed line. I did not have to do that in this projection.
Bracket breakdown:
Multi-Bid conferences:
Big Ten: 12
SEC: 11
ACC: 9
Big 12: 7
Big East: 2
Ivy League: 2
Last four in:
Princeton
Clemson
Virginia
Colorado
First four out:
Stanford
Arizona State
Richmond
Utah
Next four out:
Fairfield
South Dakota State
Cal
BYU
Next Update: February 25th