The month we have all been dreaming about is finally here: March. Today, the power conferences begin a five-day mad dash to crown conference champions. There will be upsets and elite matchups. All of it will determine who gets the auto-bids to the Big Dance. Going forward over the next 11 days, until Selection Sunday, you will have a daily bracketology from me. So, let’s look at how the last week of the regular season created this bracket.
We will start at the top and work through some of the key points that led to the shape of this bracket:
The top four overall seeds remained unchanged. The committee said these are the four one-seed teams, and none of them has done anything to change that. The conference tournaments may change this, but only time will tell. For now, UConn, UCLA, South Carolina, and Texas remain at the top.
Welcome to the hosting world, Minnesota. The Gophers have been on the rise, winning 10 of their final 11 games. Due to this success, the committee rewarded them with a hosting spot in their release on March 1. They also had Michigan State in their top 16, but after their almost 20-point loss to Ohio State, I had them falling to a No. 5 seed. Their replacement is North Carolina after their big win over Duke on Sunday.
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The bubble saw some big changes this week. Virginia Tech’s win over Virginia pushed the Hokies out of playing in the first four and dropped the Cavaliers down. Also, Colorado finished the regular season losing their final two games, which dropped the Buffaloes out of the field. Stanford replaces them as they ended the season on a three-game win streak, including a 35-point drubbing of Clemson on Sunday.
The biggest climber on the bracket over the past week was Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish finished the regular season winning their last five games, including a huge win Sunday over Louisville. It’s been an up-and-down year for Notre Dame, but they are peaking at the right time and move up to a No. 6 seed in this projection.
The biggest fall of the week was USC. The Trojans, like the Fighting Irish, have had a rollercoaster season. They won six straight in the early part of February but finished the regular slate losing their last three. One of those losses was to Penn State, which has a NET ranking in the 80’s. The struggle has the Trojans down to a No. 7 seed.
Five power conference games that will have the greatest impact on the bracket today:
Texas A&M vs Auburn
Arizona St vs Arizona
Kansas vs UCF
Miami (FL) vs Stanford
Nebraska vs Indiana
One mid-major game that will most impact the bracket:
Green Bay vs Detroit Mercy
Bracketology methodology
Here are some basic bracket rules that help influence my bracket:
- The top four seed lines in each region shall be from different conferences unless a conference has more than four teams in the top 16 (making this rule impossible to follow, as is the case with the SEC and Big 10 in my bracket).
- Teams from the same conference shall not be projected to meet until the Elite Eight if they met three times during the regular season, or the Sweet 16 if they met twice. Because we don’t know what will happen in conference tournaments, I am assuming every conference team will face each other one more time than what is on their schedule. I was able to keep conference teams apart until the Elite Eight.
- In order to comply with bracket rules, it is acceptable to move a team up or down one seed line. I did not have to do that with this bracket.
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Bracket Breakdown
Multi-Bid conferences:
Big Ten: 12
SEC: 11
ACC: 10
Big 12: 6
Big East: 2
Ivy League: 2
Last four in:
Princeton
Virginia
Mississippi St
Stanford
First four out:
Colorado
Utah
Fairfield
Richmond
Next four out:
Arizona State
South Dakota State
Texas A&M
Kansas
Next Update: March 5th
