Day two of the Power Four conference tournaments brought all the chaos. We had upsets, wild finishes, and epic performances. The results led to some changes to the bracket. While many teams didn’t move up or down seed lines, we have opportunities opened up for teams to improve their seeding with only quality opponents left to be played.
We will start at the top and work through some of the key points that led to the shape of this bracket.
The top of the bracket didn’t change at all from yesterday. All of my projected top 10 overall teams will take the court tomorrow.
The top 16 was not changed, but there is a significant chance it will. Kentucky, Baylor, and West Virginia all will have opportunities to grab the last hosting spot after Maryland’s loss to Oregon on Thursday. Kentucky’s win over Georgia was good, but it wasn’t enough to pass the Terrapins based on their head-to-head loss to Maryland in November. However, all three teams will have the chance with their games tomorrow and possibly beyond. Also, Michigan State is most likely out of contention for a top 16 seed after its loss to Illinois.
The bubble was also affected by Thursday’s action. There wasn’t a new team that jumped into the field after Thursday, thanks to Colorado’s win over Kansas. However, Arizona State and BYU both put themselves one win away from grabbing a spot in the big dance after upset wins. BYU’s win over Utah probably also eliminated the Utes from making the field of 68. If either of those Big 12 teams gets one more upset win, they will be in. Quarterfinal Friday in the Big 12 will really shake up the bubble.
The biggest beneficiaries of Thursday were Arizona State, BYU, Clemson, and Illinois. The Big 12 schools got wins, taking them so close to the NCAA field. Clemson and Illinois both improved their seed lines by one with their upsets on Thursday.
Friday games with greatest bracket impacts
- West Virginia vs Arizona State
- NC State vs Notre Dame
- Oklahoma vs LSU
- Minnesota vs Ohio State
- South Carolina vs Kentucky
- Iowa vs Illinois
Mid-Major game with greatest bracket impact
- Chattanooga vs Furman
Bracketology methodology
Here are some basic bracket rules that help influence my bracket:
- The top four seed lines in each region shall be from different conferences unless a conference has more than four teams in the top 16 (making this rule impossible to follow, as is the case with the SEC and Big 10 in my bracket).
- Teams from the same conference shall not be projected to meet until the Elite Eight if they met three times during the regular season, or the Sweet 16 if they met twice. Because we don’t know what will happen in conference tournaments, I am assuming every conference team will face each other one more time than what is on their schedule. I was able to keep conference teams apart until the Elite Eight.
- In order to comply with bracket rules, it is acceptable to move a team up or down one seed line. I did not have to do that with this bracket.
Bracket breakdown
Multi-Bid conferences
- Big Ten: 12
- SEC: 10
- ACC: 9
- Big 12: 7
- Big East: 2
- Ivy League: 2
- MAAC: 2
- Last four in:
- Colorado
- Fairfield
- Virginia
- Nebraska
First four out:
- Arizona State
- Richmond
- BYU
- South Dakota State
Next four out:
- Utah
- Mississippi State
- Stanford
- Kansas
Next Update: March 7th
