This draft is a bit of a Rorschach test, to quote my colleague Lincoln Shafer. Three players are locks for top-five picks in Awa Fam, Azzi Fudd and Olivia Miles, but even the order they’ll go in is unclear. And then there’s a group of as many as five players who could fill out the lottery around them. Things haven’t been this unsettled this late since 2021, with each class from 2022-25 having had consensus on the first two, and usually the first three, picks heading into draft night.
Team needs and player-development philosophies will dictate how this shakes out even more than usual. The cases for Fam, Fudd and Miles are fairly straightforward: Fam has the highest ceiling in the class and may be the best player by the end of Year 2, but she’s also 19 and may take just as long to adjust to the W; Fudd is the best pure shooting prospect the league’s ever seen and a perfectly cromulent team defender, but offers little upside and next to no creation; Miles is, offensively, the second-best pure point guard prospect of the 2020s but whether she either can’t or won’t lock in defensively is an open question.
The other five contenders for lottery selection? Their cases are a bit more complicated.
Players listed alphabetically
The candidates
Lauren Betts, center, UCLA
The case for Betts in the lottery: Lauren Betts is still 6’7, and unless Betts is the first ever shrinking WNBA player, height tends to be regression-proof. She’s a dominant defensive force in the paint, to the point that teams largely just avoid attacking her altogether — and that’s not just attributable to her size, because Betts moves through short areas in a way few centers consistently can. If WNBA free agency ever happens this year, and a team misses out on what many still argue is the most important position in the women’s game, this may be their last chance to swing for a star center for some time.
The case against: Between continued struggles against top post defenses and quality helpers, finishing that looks better on paper than in game, a poor jump shot (she’s 13-43 on all jumpers this season, including 8-29 on catch-and-shoots when unguarded, per Synergy) and little improvement as a screener, Betts could realistically be a mediocre offensive player. Even if the defense translates, when was the last time a mostly defensive big was an All-Star? Before Angel Reese in 2024, it hadn’t happened since 2017 with both Elizabeth Williams and Rebekkah Brunson. Why swing in the lottery for someone who could so easily be sub-All-Star-level?
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Flau’jae Johnson, wing, LSU
For: Flau’jae Johnson can lock down the opponent’s best wing, block the hell out of bigs half a foot taller than her, and is a plus movement shooter who can break ankles off the dribble. Even including the trio of lottery locks, there’s no one in this class who can do all of that in the same game for 33 minutes as loudly as Johnson. The upside is a straight-up two-way star wing, potential that no one else in this tier offers.
Against: How confident can you be that Johnson is going to show up as her best self every night? Because the player who was breaking ankles and creating in the midrange as a sophomore and junior has shown up about five times this season, one fewer than the six times Johnson has scored single digits on sub-50% shooting in SEC play. She’s also shooting just 31.9% on 3-pointers for her career against conference opponents, and the intensity of her defense seems to drop off when the shots aren’t falling. The latter isn’t necessarily abnormal, but a lottery pick is a building block who’s gotta have that dawg in ’em — even at low points.
Raven Johnson, point guard, South Carolina
For: While far less likely to be selected within the first five picks than anyone else in this tier, high-level play is more of a guarantee with Raven Johnson than anyone else. She’s arguably been both the best point-of-attack (POA) and wing defender in college over the past four years, has gotten increasingly comfortable with a good stationary three and has more ways to score now than in past seasons when her efficiency was only marginal. And she’s done this all while performing just as well against elite matchups year after year. What else is there to prove?
Against: A significant amount of Raven Johnson’s success this year is attributable to her outmuscling opponents on both ends. And while she’s always been quick and exceptionally strong for her size, she’ll be matching up against veteran pros in the WNBA instead of players three years younger. Better opposing athletes also means fewer wide-open 3-pointers and less exploitable mismatches to score against. For a player who’s already maxed out in her skill set, it’s mostly downside by lottery standards and almost no star upside.
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Ta’Niya Latson, off-ball guard, South Carolina
For: Who else in this class has ever averaged over 25 points a game in a power conference on decent efficiency, as Latson did a year ago? Who else even could? This game has always been and always will be about buckets, and Latson gets a ton of buckets — and/or whatever you call driving into the lane and drawing a foul. She’s been a solid defender in Columbia, too, and a quality volume scorer who can defend is rare. If Rickea Jackson was a solid lottery pick off that profile, why not Latson?
Against: Have you seen how Latson’s played against real competition this year? Against power conference opponents, she’s averaged 12.1 points, 2.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.4 steals. That is a perfectly good if unexceptional line, but the problem is her 43.9/20.0/76.8 shooting splits in those games. That’s not too dissimilar to how Latson shot as a freshman at Florida State (43.1/31.1/87.1 against power conference opponents), but her act-first, think-later scoring approach has improved little over four years, with any variance in her 3-point shooting staying on the negative side. What does Latson do that Kiki Rice doesn’t do significantly better?
Kiki Rice, point guard, UCLA
For: Except being as elite a passer as Miles or teammate Charlisse Leger-Walker, Kiki Rice is everything and anything you’d want out of a true point guard. She’s a three-level scorer on and off the ball who can create her own shot in bunches and get to the line. She’s a quality playmaker who rarely makes bad passes. She’s a standout POA defender with size enough to switch. Oh, and she’s demonstrably improved offensively every year. Take Rice top four or regret it.
Against: Rice’s improvements from last year to this may not be that sticky, and many teams in the W still prefer pass-first point guards over scorers. Her first step and handle also aren’t nearly good enough to project any significant upside in the midrange or for greater creation of pull-up threes, so the offensive star potential is limited compared to some of the other options in this tier.
Dang, who would you pick then after the top 3?