With all the rules and intricacies out of the way, let’s get to the 2026 PWHL playoff race itself! As of the writing of this article, each team has around two thirds of the season remaining. That means there’s about 30 points available for each team to earn. While there’s no one eliminated from playoff contention just yet, the clock is counting down on a few teams. For some teams, the light at the end of the tunnel isn’t the playoffs, but their introduction to the Gold Plan standings.
The Longshots
There are two teams we can all agree are on a Gold Plan path rather than a path to playoff contention: the Vancouver Goldeneyes and the Seattle Torrent. Both teams currently sit with six wins apiece in 19 games played. While Vancouver sits with two more points than Seattle, both still sit under 0.400 points%. That’s a tough hole to climb out of it, but not impossible. After all, they haven’t been eliminated from playoff contention.
Vancouver and Seattle fans will be asking: what exactly does each team need to do to make the playoffs? How high is the mountain each team needs to climb? The history of the PWHL is a bit tough to glean where exactly the bar is. There are only two seasons played and both those seasons only featured six teams. We’re going to have to do some educated guessing here. We’ll see at the end of the season if our logic made any sense.
Where is the Bar?
Right now, the Ottawa Charge have the inside track on the last playoff spot. They’re are on pace for about 42 points. That’s a 0.467 PTS%, which would be the lowest PTS% to make the playoffs in the PWHL’s very short history. In the PWHL’s first season, Boston and Minnesota made the playoffs with a 0.486 PTS%. In the second season, Ottawa and Minnesota made the playoffs with a 0.489 PTS%. To put this into perspective, the fourth seed has made the playoffs both seasons being a single point under 0.500 PTS%.
It’s interesting that Ottawa is on pace to end up three points below the 0.500 PTS% mark, which is more points below that PTS% mark than the previous two seasons. Ottawa has 28 points in 20 games, and then there’s Toronto with 28 points in 21 games. They are neck and neck for the final spot, with three matches against each other remaining on the schedule. That’s nine points that have to go to either team. They are right in the mix for a playoff spot. Whoever comes out with the most points out of those three games is probably going to put themselves on pace to end up with more than the 42 points that Ottawa is currently on pace for.
What Will it take to Make the Playoffs?
Theoretically, until the end point of the season comes more into focus, let’s say the bar is at 45 points to make the playoffs as the final seed. With 11 games left in the season for Vancouver, there are 33 points available while needing 24 points to hit that 45-point marker. That requires Vancouver to play at a 0.727 PTS% pace the rest of the way. It’s a thin margin. Three regulation losses will all but mathematically eliminate them from the playoffs. For Seattle it’s an even thinner margin of error. Under the 45-point assumption, they’ll need 26 points out of a possible 33 points left to grab during the season. They can only afford two regulation losses and an OT loss or two.
For Seattle it looks like an even larger hill to climb. They’re without Hannah Bilka for the rest of the season. Plus, Hilary Knight has been on Long Term Injured Reserve since coming back from the Olympics. Despite having missed five games, Bilka still remains fifth in team points, and Knight is fourth. Those two being out of the line-up renders a roster that didn’t go after many offensive players down two great ones with no replacements available. Lexie Adzija or Natalie Snodgrass are bad players, but putting them in top six roles is asking too much. Alex Carpenter, Julia Gosling, and Danielle Serdachny can only do so much. Serdachny has started to produce more, but more is needed from a roster where the fourth healthy forward with the most points is Adzija with four.
Vancouver is mostly in the same boat as Seattle. Neither team is getting dominated possession-wise, they’re playing close games, and there’s no offensive consistency. They are playing close games without the firepower to take the edge. For Seattle it’s injuries taking away their elite offensive players and for Vancouver it’s a case of just not having them. At the time of writing this, Vancouver is not only the only team without a 10-point player, but every other team has multiple 10-point players. They banked on a forward corps with a lot of good offensive players and one or two elite ones, depending on your opinion of Hannah Miller. The result is that no one could step up while Sarah Nurse was out.