We’ve gone over teams who have long odds at making the playoffs. We’ve gone over teams who have nearly punched their ticket to the playoffs. Now we’ve got the teams fighting it out for the final playoff spot: Ottawa Charge, Toronto Sceptres, and New York Sirens. Ottawa has 28 points with 10 games remaining, Toronto has 28 points with nine games remaining, and New York has 27 points with nine games remaining. It’s about as close as you can get two thirds of the way through the season. This might be the final playoff spot available, barring a collapse from one of the teams above them.
The Ottawa Charge
If you’re not a fan of the three teams, this is about as entertaining of a playoff race as you can ask for. Narratives abound! With the slight edge on Toronto and New York is Ottawa. They’re looking to finish what they started last season, when they lost in the Walter Cup final. It’s fair to describe their attempt to get back into the playoffs as magical. They might be playing some of the most disorganized, chaotic hockey we’ve ever seen, but they’re winning. In fact, they’ve won 11 games, only one fewer than Minnesota. So, why are they eight points behind Minnesota?
Six of those 11 wins have come in extra time. They have more overtime/shootout wins than they do regulation wins, which you just never see. You can look at the history of the CWHL and PHF. You won’t find teams winning more games in regulation than OT/SO. That’s how they’ve needed to win, though: by playing hero hockey. It starts with Gwyneth Philips. She’s in net facing the toughest workload in terms of quantity of shots against (31.74 SA/60, 576 shots against). Plus, the highest quality of shots against based on each team’s individual shots against heat maps. Through all this, Philips has maintained a 0.722 Quality Starts %. This gives her team plenty of chances to win.
Ottawa is the worst team at preventing shots on goal (31.11 SA/60). And, they’re the worst at getting shots on goal (25.28 SF/60). For the first time since New York in the inaugural season we have a team with a sub 45% shot share. Yet despite every indication that Ottawa should be floundering around with Vancouver and Seattle, they’re in the fourth playoff spot. It’s ugly hockey, but Ottawa is finding hero hockey working for them. Their offence is currently shooting at 9.5%, which is rather high. Only Minnesota has a higher shooting%. This team is held together by duct tape and dreams, but it’s been working for two thirds of the season. They just need to hold on for 10 more games.
The Toronto Sceptres
New York and Ottawa aren’t running away with the fourth seed. The Toronto Sceptres have put their hat into the ring. Up until the post-Olympic part of the season, Toronto had yet to win back-to-back games. They’ve managed to keep the losing streaks short and pick up some OT/SO points. Coming out of the Olympic break, Toronto is on a five-game point streak. They have three regulation wins, an OT loss, and a shootout loss.
There has always been concerns about Toronto’s play and Troy Ryan’s coaching. Still, they always play with a structure that, while not lending itself to offence, can keep games close. This leads to some hero moments, giving Toronto the edge to rack up wins. This worked in 2024 and the 24/25 season. But, this current run to put Toronto back in playoff contention feels flimsier.
There’s no red-hot PP keeping them afloat, for one thing. Watts is having a great season, but nothing like Spooner’s 2024 run. Plus, their shot share numbers are concerning. Their all strengths shot share through five games is at 44.76% and at even-strength 44%. Potentially the biggest red flag of all is that their three wins have come against Seattle twice and Vancouver once. A win against any PWHL team is not easy. Their only wins being against the two worst teams in the league, though, leads to questions about Toronto’s ability to consistently win against teams above them. One third of their remaining games are against Ottawa. If they have any magic left, that’s when it’ll be helpful.
The New York Sirens
A team in need of magic is the New York Sirens. They’ve been one of the better process teams in the league. They sit second in all strengths shot share (52.91%) and second in even-strength shot share (51.93%). They’re the third best shot suppression team at all strengths (26.56SA/60) and at even-strength as well (21.15 SA/60). Offensively, they’re generating shots on goal with the best teams in the league. As mentioned previously, their shots on goal heat map is quite similar to Minnesota’s red hot offence. Why doesn’t New York, then, have some kind of advantage when it comes to the fourth seed?
Without getting too into the weeds, it’s simply that the puck is going in a lot more than it should be. They’re also not being rewarded with the goals you’d typically see with the shooting profile they’ve been putting up. They sit second last in the PWHL for PDO (98.8), second last in team SV% (0.910), and fourth in team SH% (7.83%). That doesn’t look bad, but Minnesota is getting the same shot areas with a conversion rate of 10.69%. New York’s hope right now post-Olympics is some of that young roster inconsistency coming through. Once they tighten it up a tad more and get some puck luck, it’ll be smooth sailing.