Death, taxes and the Minnesota Lynx — Cheryl Reeve talks blowout win

Welcome to Basketball Insider, presented by The BIG EAST Conference. Back in 2011, the Minnesota Lynx led the WNBA in net rating, held the best record, and were coached by Cheryl Reeve. That year, the Lynx won it all, something the vast majority of general managers (or observers at large) did not predict. Current member of the Lynx, Olivia Miles, was eight years old.

After defeating the Phoenix Mercury, 111-77 on Monday night, the Minnesota Lynx lead the WNBA in net rating, hold the best record and are coached by Cheryl Reeve. Not one general manager (and no observer I know) predicted the Lynx would win it all. This October, member of the 2011 Lynx, Taj McWilliams-Franklin, turns 56 years old. (Sorry, Taj.)

So while it is fashionable in many circles to simply dismiss the small sample size here of the first nine games of the WNBA season, or point to some legitimately valid concerns about how the Lynx can continue to play like this, allow me to ask a counterpoint: just what do we think is likely to derail them?

A scan of the Minnesota statistics so far doesn’t produce much in the way of obviously out-of-character numbers, candidates to regress to the mean. The primary concern, beyond figuring out how the Lynx would compensate for the loss defensively of bigs Alanna Smith (to Dallas) and Napheesa Collier (to injury) was perimeter shooting. Well: Courtney Williams and Nia Coffey are shooting the lights out from three, both north of 40 percent, but Williams is a career 37.7% shooter from deep, and Coffey has a pair of 40%+ seasons under her belt.

If anything, the likeliest regression candidates from beyond the arc are Kayla McBride and Olivia Miles. But let’s specify: McBride’s at 28.6% from three in 2026, a career 37.1% shooter from three who was north of 39% each of the past two seasons, and Miles checks in at just 11.1% after hitting 35.1% and 40.6% of her threes over her final two collegiate seasons. (She’s also at 91.3% from the free throw line, an excellent predictor of 3-point shooting.)

Miles is viewed as underachieving only if we measure her through that lens. In every other way imaginable, she has taken on the role of franchise point guard/must-watch performer that the Lynx hoped she’d become. Even Reeve is surprised by the speed with which she’s assumed that mantle, though.

“I don’t think it’s what you expect,” Reeve said following Monday night’s game. “…I guess whether it’s in high school, whether it’s college, or whether it’s pros, a pick and roll is a pick and roll. And that’s her, that’s what she does. And her ability to manipulate defenses — there were audible gasps on our bench from our coaching staff and our support staff at some of the passes that she made.”

The interior defense, anchored by Natasha Howard and recently reinforced by the addition of Teaira McCowan, has been more than just patchwork — third in the WNBA in points allowed in the paint, atop the league in defensive rebounds.

But while the Lynx aren’t going to bring back Smith or Jessica Shepard this season, now signed in Dallas, Collier is expected to return. That will obviously be an adjustment, and one that carries some clear unknowns with it. But if the early results have told us anything, it is that the pressure on Collier won’t be that of savior. Instead, Minnesota can work her into the rotation gradually. And it sure won’t hurt to have Miles feeding her the ball.

I couldn’t help but recall that the Lynx had a similar first-world problem back in 2015, when midseason, they acquired Sylvia Fowles, then needed to fit her into an existing team. There were growing pains. But led by then-Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve, Minnesota managed to win a WNBA championship, Fowles earning WNBA Finals MVP in the process.

The month Reeve acquired Fowles, now retired and an assistant with the Portland Fire, current Lynx center Emma Čechová turned 11 years old.

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This week in women’s basketball

Terrific from Julia Poe on what’s gone wrong for the Chicago Sky.

Fun from Danielle Lerner on the active WNBA players who are also broadcasters.

Been loving Jordan Robinson’s weekly newsletter.

How to root for multiple teams.

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Five at The IX: Cheryl Reeve

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Soccer: Annie Peterson, @AnnieMPeterson, AP Women’s Soccer
Tennis: Joey Dillon, @JoeyDillon, Freelance Tennis Writer
Basketball: Howard Megdal, @HowardMegdal, The IX Sports
Softball: Maren Angus-Coombs, @Maren-Angus, The IX Sports
Golf: Marin Dremock, @MDremock, The IX Sports
Hockey: @TheIceGarden, The Ice Garden
Gymnastics: Jessica Taylor Price, @jesstaylorprice, Freelance Writer