Wimbledon’s wacky opening — Who will win?

One week later, only one Round of 16 match lived up to their projected matchup — No. 7 Mirra Andreeva vs. No. 10 Emma Navarro. Still, on a selfish front, I’m still proud that I correctly guessed half of the quarterfinalists last week but I have absolutely no idea how the rest of the tournament will unfold. One thing guaranteed is that we will have a first-time Wimbledon champion emerge from SW19.

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Here’s where things stand:

(1) Aryna Sabalenka vs. Laura Siegemund
(13) Amanda Anisimova vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
(7) Mirra Andreeva vs. Belinda Bencic
(8) Iga Swiatek vs. (19) Liudmila Samsonova

To me, this is Aryna Sabalenka’s title to lose, plain and simple. She’s yet to drop a set, but has been tested just enough in each of her four previous matches to not be too comfortable. She’s the most consistent player on tour and the stat of the week is that she’s now reached her eleventh consecutive Grand Slam quarterfinal — she’s really at another level compared to the rest of the field. She plays Laura Siegemund, who upset No. 6 Madison Keys en route to her second career Grand Slam. The German does have the game and temperament to challenge Sabalenka with her craftiness and doubles prowess complimenting the grass, but I just can’t see her completing the upset.

The second quarterfinal has Amanda Anisimova against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, a matchup you likely wouldn’t have expected at this round if asked even a month ago. It’s the second Wimbledon quarterfinal for Anisimova, who also reached the Roland Garros semifinals in 2019. For Pavlyuchenkova, this will be her tenth quarterfinal at a major and it’s the second time in her career she’s made at least two in a single season. While Pavlyuchenkova has much more experience at this stage of a Slam, she is 1-8 in those quarterfinals so could that poor record be a big intangible. Both are big hitters, but I think Anisimova’s flat shots — especially on the backhand — will be a big reason we should see her make the semifinals here.

On the bottom half, Mirra Andreeva continues to impress at such a young age. She reached her second major quarterfinal and like Sabalenka, has done it without losing a set. Her scorelines have been impressive, most impressively her 6-1, 6-3, win over Emma Navarro. Armed with 1994 champion Conchita Martinez in her corner, this could be the real breakout moment for the Russian. She has an all-court game and I also think her consistent doubles success has been something to elevate her to the world’s best. Stopping her from a second Grand Slam semifinal is Belinda Bencic, who is surprisingly in her first Wimbledon quarterfinal. Bencic is a former junior champion and her flat shots and her attention to taking the ball on the rise is beyond complimentary for the grass. This, to me, is my favorite matchup of the quarterfinals and I think we’ll see Andreeva squeak out a three-setter here.

Lastly is another former junior champion with not the best success in the seniors, Iga Swiatek. A year ago, she was ranked No. 1 coming off a Roland Garros title. Now? She’s No. 8 and hasn’t won a title since. However, she’s been able to find a little bit of form on the grass where she made her first final on the surface in Bad Homburg and now in her second quarterfinal at the All England Club. She takes on first-time major quarterfinalist Liudmila Samsonova. The Russian hasn’t lost a set, but you could argue she didn’t have the toughest draw en route to this stage. Samsonova has the power to knock out Swiatek, but the Pole is used to the big moments on the big stage and I think that will help out the five-time Grand Slam champion

For predictions, I’ll keep my Sabalenka defeating Anisimova that I had last week but the bottom half is so up in the air. My gut says Andreeva will knock out Swiatek, but I could see the reverse happening (and also Bencic surprising either or both). Only time will tell!

On to links!

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This Week in Women’s Tennis

Professional women’s tennis is returning to Newport, Rhode Island this week and the women will receive the same prize money as the men and offering the largest purse out of any WTA 125 event.

We finally saw the first error with AI taking over line judges when there was a Hawkeye error during Anastasia Pavlyuechenkova’s fourth round match against Sonay Kartal.

Mccartney Kessler is continuing her rise to the top and the University of Florida grad is looking to stay there as she gets more experience.

Cristina Bucsa and Solana Sierra are using their luck to their advantage and having career-best tournaments at Wimbledon.

Lindsay Davenport thinks Naomi Osaka is at an important crossroads in her comeback following maternity leave.

Zeynep Sonmez continues to make history for Turkey, becoming the first player to reach the third round at a Grand Slam.

Liudmila Samsonova is superstitious with her draw and so far it’s working following her maiden Grand Slam breakthrough.

Last year, Emma Navarro reached the quarterfinals of Wimbledon to really announce her breakthrough and she’s still adjusting to being amongst the world’s best.

Oklahoma State’s women’s program received a three-year probation and some other penalties after coach Chris Young was found to have violated recruiting rules and withholding information from investigators.

Tweet of the Week

Transparency matters. Good on ya, Naomi

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Five at The IX: Wimbledon Week 1

“That’s why we have a chair umpire. Otherwise, I think soon let’s just play without them, right, and then we’re going to have everything automatic…I think we losing a little bit of the charm of actually having human being, ballboys. Like during COVID, we didn’t have ballboys. It just becomes a little bit weird and, like, robot sort of orientated.” – Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova

“This place holds the best memories I could wish for…I never dreamed of winning a Wimbledon and I won it twice. This is something very special.” Petra Kvitova

“It just hasn’t been an easy journey, really at all. So I’m really excited to be here and it really gives me a high level of gratitude…..There have been so many things this year that have been giving me an opportunity to sit back and reflect. And gratitude keeps coming up.” – Taylor Townsend

“As I said after big wins before, I have this game and this maybe boldness—I don’t know if that’s the right word in English—to take out big names. I’ve always had that…Just maybe because I don’t care who is on the other side. In a positive, respectful way I don’t care.” – Laura Siegemund

“I lost in the third round of qualies, so we already changed like three times—the apartment. Now we’re gonna change again because I won…but like we say, it’s a good problem.” – Solana Sierra