The 2026 Australian Open’s Elite Eight

Now, this edition of Tennis Tuesday was written before the first two quarterfinals, so bear with me in case you looked at the results first.

In the first quarter, we have No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka against No. 29 Iva Jovic. The Belarussian is aiming to reach her fourth consecutive Australian Open final, while the American in her maiden quarterfinal. While Jovic was impressive in her third-round upset over No. 7 and then only losing a game in her Round of 16 encounter with Yulia Puntintseva, it’s really hard to bet against Sabalenka. The World No. 1 has now reached 13 consecutive quarterfinals at Grand Slams and that experience comes in handy, especially against a newcomer. While Jovic has the game to test Sabalenka, I can’t see an upset happening.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 2 sets

No. 3 became the youngest player since Maria Sharapova (2006-08) to advance to three consecutive Australian Open quarterfinals with a three-set win over No. 19 Karolina Muchova. While she aims for a return to the semifinals, she has a tall task in No. 12 Elina Svitolina. The Ukrainian is not only undefeated so far in 2026, she’s been stellar at the 12 majors since her maternity leave by making the quarterfinals or better in half of them. Svitolina hasn’t dropped a set, while Gauff has been tested thus far, so you can put this one on your radar for a potential upset. While both counterpunch well, Gauff has a bit more firepower in her arsenal and I think that will be the big difference maker in this matchup.
Prediction: Gauff in 3 sets

We are guaranteed at least one American semifinalist with No. 4 Amanda Anisimova facing No. 6 Jessica Pegula. Of the four quarterfinals, I’m most looking forward to this one. Anisimova completed the career set of Grand Slam quarterfinals and has looked mighty impressive so far, not dropping a set. However, I’m most impressed with Pegula, who has only lost 17 games in her four matches to reach her fourth quarterfinal Down Under. The Players Box podcast host ousted co-host and reigning champion Madison Keys in the fourth round in quite impressive fashion. Pegula’s serve, not usually a huge weapon, bailed her out in many big points, so I’m curious to see how that specifically will hold up. Pegula’s consistency against the Anisimova aggression (and the backhand, arguably the best on tour) has the makings for a really great match. Pre-tournament, I predicted that Anisimova will continue her dominant displays at the majors, but I think Pegula will emerge to make her first semifinal in Melbourne.
Prediction: Pegula in 3 sets

Lastly, No. 2 Iga Swiatek is playing in Australia with the Career Grand Slam in potential reach for the first time. Next up in her path is a marquee matchup against No. 5 Elena Rybakina. The Pole did drop a 6-1 second set to No. 31 Anna Kalinskaya, while 2023 runner-up Rybakina continues to fly under the radar even though she’s the hottest player on tour with 17 wins in her last 18 matches. The Kazakh won their last meeting at the WTA Finals, 3-6, 6-1, 6-0, but Swiatek holds the lead in their overall head-to-head 6-5. I truly can’t decide which player will advance here, but I did originally pick Swiatek here, so I’m just going to commit to that pick.
Prediction: Swiatek in 3

From there, I think Sabalenka will take out Gauff in straight sets and Swiatek is more likely to take the matchup over Pegula. Truly, it’s Sabalenka’s to lose and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the World No. 1 win without the loss of a set throughout the complete fortnight. She’s that good not only in Australia, but on hardcourts in general. However, anything can happen so again, take these with a chunk of salt.

On to links!

This Week in Women’s Tennis

Congrats to former Doubles No. 1 Latisha Chan, who formally announced her retirement in Melbourne this week. She last played at the 2024 Paris Olympics and won the 2017 U.S. Open and three majors in mixed doubles.

It’s been announced that Rafael Font de Mora, the new coach of Peyton Stearns, will be under investigation by the WTA after multiple misconduct claims were brought to their attention.

More content like this:

Again, Ben Rothenberg is delivering amazing content in his Bounces newsletter, with interviews with the Australian Open chief medical officer and father of Iva Jovic as stellar options to check out.

Vera Zvonareva is showing that age is just a number as the 41-year-old is into the quarterfinals of the doubles event in just her fourth tournament following a 19-month layoff.

Congrats to Garbine Muguruza, who gave birth to her first child:

Karolina Pliskova had a nice couple of wins in Melbourne, but is still unsure how her ankle will react to the demands of the tour as she comes back.

ESPN gets a thumbs down for their moneygrab with a new tier system to watch matches. That’s not how you’re going to rake in new fans.

Wearable technology Whoop is usually allowed on tour and had a partnership with the WTA, but players were forced to take them off at the Grand Slams.

Big news in college tennis:

What a tour-level debut for refugee Oleksandra Oliynykova, who embraced the big moment in her opening round loss to Madison Keys.

Jana Fett has been provisionally suspended by the ITIA following a failed drug test from the 2025 Billie Jean King Cup playoffs.

Aryna Sabalenka is the latest tennis player to sign a deal with fashion house Gucci:

From Janice Tjen waving the Indonesian flag to Zeynep Sonmez’s inspiring run, the globalization of tennis is such a beautiful thing.

Australian qualifier Maddison Inglis had a dream run into the second week of a major for the first time and the first purchase with the largest check of her career? A toaster.

Friends Victoria Mboko and Iva Jovic continued to make deep waves Down Under with impressive runs in both singles and the doubles draw together:

Coco Gauff added onto her support to HBCU tennis players by donating another $150,000 to the United Negro College Fund.

Tweet of the Week

Hmmmm

Five at The IX: Australian Open Week 1

“As nerve-racking and as stressful as that can be, I’m still reminding myself of just how few people get to be in that moment, and being able to walk out today and have the crowd be as welcoming as they were. I’ll take the stress any day.” – Madison Keys on being defending champion

“That sounds crazy and surreal, to be honest. Just never thought that people will kind of like compare me to these names, even though I’m really far away from their achievements. Of course it sounds incredible and sounds like really – it motivates me to keep doing my thing. It just means for me that I’m on the right way.” – Aryna Sabalenka, who made elite company winning 45 of her last 50 sets at Grand Slams

“Today in the morning, it was a tough day. I said to myself, ‘you haven’t smiled once since you got up. Smile a little bit because if not, you step on court and you play bad’. For me, it’s important to enjoy my tennis, enjoy being on court, so sometimes I force myself to smile more.” – Jasmine Paolini on enjoying the moment

“I had a lot of great experiences last year … going into this year, I’m just thinking about how I can get that extra edge … yeah, there are expectations, but I use them as motivation.” – Amanda Anisimova on wanting to improve on her 2025 breakout season

“Yeah, so the inspiration was obviously the jellyfish, then butterflies, which kind of ties back to the butterfly moment I had here a long time ago, in 2021.” – Naomi Osaka breaking down her viral outfit for the tournament