Howdy, y’all and Happy Tennis Tuesday! The 2026 Australian Open kicked off on Sunday and the final day of opening round action took place overnight, but we’ve already had some upsets. At submission, the highest seed to fall thus far has been No. 11 Ekaterina Alexandrova, but No. 15 Emma Navarro and most surprising to me was No. 20 Marta Kostyuk falling in three tiebreak sets. Still, per my routine, lets break down the draw and predict how things will unfold.
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First up is World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka. Arguably, the Belarussian is the best player on tour and that’s a fact on the hardcourts. She’s aiming to reach her fourth consecutive final at Melbourne Park and reclaim the title she won in 2023 and 2024. She had a heartbreaking loss in the final last year to Madison Keys, but rebounded well to take a second consecutive U.S. Open crown. She again began the season by taking the WTA 500 title in Brisbane and feels quite at home on the fast courts in Australia.
No. 2 Iga Swiatek is always a player that is among the favorites to take the title, but the Australian Open is the lone Grand Slam she doesn’t have following her Wimbledon victory last year. Earning the Career Grand Slam is a pressure-filled situation she’s never had to face before, so I’m really curious how things will unfold throughout the fortnight here.
Right behind the Pole are two Americans in Coco Gauff and Amanda Anisimova. Last year, Gauff took the Roland Garros title, while Anisimova was the true breakout story of 2025 when she cemented her comeback from sabbatical to make back-to-back Grand Slam finals. To me, Anisimova is the one to watch throughout the next two weeks. She has the game to knock out Sabalenka, Swiatek and Gauff and looks to be in great shape, too. She didn’t do very well last year and can earn quite a bit of points to narrow the gap on Swiatek.
Other players that can contend for the title include No. 5 Elena Rybakina. The Kazakh, in my opinion, completely turned her career back around with her run in the fall that ended with the largest paycheck in women’s tennis history at the WTA Finals. Like Anisimova, she’s one that can beat anyone on any day, but her health — both mental and physical — has been the gatekeeper. No. 9 Madison Keys finally broke through a year ago to capture her maiden Grand Slam, but injuries and inconsistency plagued the American the second half of 2025. A large majority of her ranking points came from the Australian swing last year, so keep an eye on how she can handle the pressure.
Other former Grand Slam finalists Jessica Pegula and Jasmine Paolini looked impressive in their first round matches, but do they have the depth in their toolkit to have consecutive upsets? What about a teen star like Mirra Andreeva or moms Belinda Bencic, Elina Svitolina and (two-tie champ) Naomi Osaka?
Below are my predictions and I know I always poke fun at them not coming to fruition, so continue to take with a trunk of salt:
Round of 16
(1) Aryna Sabalenka def. (17) Victoria Mboko
(7) Jasmine Paolini def. (20) Marta Kostyuk
(3) Coco Gauff def. (15) Emma Navarro
(12) Elina Svitolina def. (8) Mirra Andreeva
(6) Jessica Pegula def. (9) Madison Keys
(4) Amanda Anisimova def. (13) Linda Noskova
(5) Elena Rybakina def. (10) Belinda Benicic
(2) Iga Swiatek def. (16) Naomi Osaka
Quarterfinals
(1) Aryna Sabalenka def. (7) Jasmine Paolini
(3) Coco Gauff def. (12) Elina Svitolina
(4) Amanda Anisimova def. (6) Jessica Pegula
(2) Iga Swiatek def. (5) Elena Rybakina
Semi-Finals
(1) Aryna Sabalenka def. (3) Coco Gauff
(4) Amanda Anisimova def. (2) Iga Swiatek
Final
(1) Aryna Sabalenka def. (4) Amanda Anisimova
The “Happy Slam” brings an insane atmosphere, but the brutal Australian sun/heat, on top of the faster court speed, can deliver some Cinderella runs. Of the four Slams, the Australian Open tends to produce a surprise semifinalist more than the rest and with the depth the WTA is producing, don’t be shocked to see that continue. The question is whether it’s a “lower” seed or someone completely unexpected. Still, this tournament is Sabalenka’s (and to a very minor degree, Anisimova’s) to lose. Let the games begin continue.
On to links!
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This Week in Women’s Tennis
Mirra Andreeva kept things simple to take the WTA 500 Adelaide International over Victoria Mboko, while Katerina Siniakova and Zhang Shuai won the doubles crown over Desirae Krawczyk and Lyudmyla Kichenok.
Surprise winners at the Hobart International continued with Elisabetta Cocciaretto becoming the fifth qualifier to win the title in Tasmania. The Italian defeated Iva Jovic in the final and the doubles crown was won by Janice Tjen and Katarzyna Piter, who defeated Magali Kempen and Anna Siskova.
The 2026 Billie Jean King Cup Qualifiers were announced:
Get a small recap of all of this year’s Australian Open qualifiers with this thread in honor of the late Damian Kurst, who would do this for the men every Grand Slam:
Ben Rothenberg continues to deliver some amazing coverage that includes Naomi Osaka leaving the agency she co-founded, as well as Oleksandra Oliynykova on Oleksandra Oliynykova going from refugee to the Grand Slam stage.
Sloane Stephens last played Grand Slam qualifying in 2011, but the former U.S. Open champion took it in stride as she continues to embrace this phase of her career.
Another former U.S. Open champion, Bianca Andreescu, could have played qualifying in Melbourne but decided to step down to the ITF World Tour and captured the W35 title in Bradenton, Florida.
After losing in women’s qualifying, Joanna Garland entered the qualifying for the Australian Open’s 1-Point Slam and made it all the way to the final to narrowly miss out on the $1 million prize.
Also get to know players making their Australian Open main draw debut, including No. 17 Victoria Mboko.
One story to watch in Melbourne is Daria Kasatkina navigating her first Australian Open as an Aussie citizen.
Led by intense support, Alexandra Eala is continuing to be the sport’s biggest young star as she headlines a wave of Asian players looking to break through.
Maria Sakkari might’ve hit the shot of the year, but even the WTA couldn’t post the insane return because of broadcasting rights. To be honest, that’s a bit embarassing.
Emma Raducanu spoke out about the scheduling at Grand Slams, wondering why women have to play after men during the night sessions.
Junior tennis extraordinaire Colette Lewis discusses all of the changes the United States will see for the 2026 ITF Junior World Tour.
Many players have made apparel switches during the off-season, including Emma Navarro and Donna Vekic.
Alison Riske-Amritraj details why the Australian Open is loved by so many players:
University of Florida player India Houghton penned about spending her winter break traveling across the globe to play in New Zealand and where tennis has brought her.
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Tweet of the Week
Coco Gauff delivering this gem and caption with the AO 1-point Slam winner:
Five at The IX: Adelaide International
Q. What does this win do for your confidence entering Melbourne, and what do you hope to achieve there? You really think you can go deep in that tournament obviously, but, yeah.
MIRRA ANDREEVA: Yeah, of course it’s a great preparation to go into Melbourne and to play in the Australian Open. You know, of course it gives me a lot of confidence to see myself play well on the court, and it’s just, in two days basically I’m going to play another match in Melbourne.
You know, I just have to bring the same level of my game and the same mindset into Melbourne. I think I’m going to play well there as well. Obviously I feel more confident after this win. Also winning a title is super special to me as well.
So, yeah, I just have to kind of, maybe today and tomorrow I relax a little bit, we practice, and then we have to get to work again.
Q. Similar type of question. You had the United Cup last week, and then you had more matches in Adelaide this week. Is that the kind of preparation, are you happy with that preparation? And would you, do you think that that’s the sort of style of preparation you’ll look to do in future years for the Australian swing?
VICTORIA MBOKO: Yeah, I mean, I like how it was, the format. I think starting United Cup was a very fun event, a team event. And then going into this, which is like a normal, actual tournament, tournament style of play.
So, yeah, I can’t complain with how things went. I generally like getting a lot of matches in before a really important tournament. I feel pretty content with how things went. Going into the Australian Open with a lot of matches under my belt feels pretty nice, and I guess it can give me a bit more confidence going into the tournament. So, yeah, I like how things went.
Q. What are your main positives to take out of the week into AO, apart from the performances, but what does it do for the confidence and mentality?
KIMBERLY BIRRELL: Yeah, yeah. I think it’s just so important to start the year on a positive note. I think that I’m really just proud of my attitude. I’m glad that my body has held up really well. I think that’s huge. Especially after a long match yesterday, I actually felt pretty good waking up this morning. Sometimes you don’t really know how you’re going to feel when you first wake up. Apart from like the usual little bit of stiffness, I was actually totally fine.
I’m so stoked with that. I think it just goes to show how much I put into my pre-season, and that that work’s really paying off now. So, yeah, lots of positives to take into next week.
Q. You alluded to it there, talking about when you were previously that younger player, now you’re obviously the veteran. In some ways how does being the veteran help you enter these matches against Victoria and Valentova today?
MADISON KEYS: I think that experience definitely helps. It’s one of those things where they’re obviously incredibly talented players, and at any moment can beat anyone.
But I also remember being their age and learning so much from playing the older players when I had those kind of matchups. And whether I won or I lost, I learned so much from them.
So I think, looking back, you think about how much you learned from each year on tour, and then being the veteran you get to have already experienced that. So I think it’s just one of those things where you definitely try to use your learning experiences to the best of your ability and kind of use that to the advantage. But at the same time, they’re also very good players, so tennis is tough that way.
Q. Personally, are you a goal setter? What are your ambitions and hopes for the new year?
AJLA TOMLJANOVIC: Would just love to stay healthy, honestly. I get scared every time something pops up, like a niggle. Just because I’m like, No, I just need a full year of nothing. I still feel like I have a lot to give. I still feel like my best is around the corner.
What’s never sort of wavered for me is just still the love for the game. That’s pretty much why I’m still here. So I don’t like setting any sort of goals, ranking-wise or anything like that, just because it’s never worked for me. It always puts this pressure. Yeah, for me the way it worked always is just that I like to take every week like a new goal and new opportunity to do well.
Obviously the slams are the ones where I love to make runs, and I think that’s the best feeling in tennis. Yeah, if I can just kind of keep going. I’m in the gym a lot just to not, just to stay healthy. So I feel like I’m doing everything I can.
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| By: Annie Peterson, @AnnieMPeterson, AP Women’s Soccer |
| Tuesdays: Tennis |
| By: Joey Dillon, @JoeyDillon, Freelance Tennis Writer |
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