Every year the NCAA Tournament is a master class in showing us the joy of winning and the heartbreak of defeat. Only four programs wake up today knowing their season continues. Players, coaches and support staffs are frantically packing and coordinating with family, friends and university leaders about tickets, sendoffs and alumni events. For the 358 other basketball programs across the country, each person associated with them now feels the reality of having their season and/or career be over. There have been tears of joy and tears of sadness that sprinkled the dance floors to Phoenix โ every cry in the locker room tells a story of someone who left it all on court.
The path to the 2026 Final Four began three weeks ago with a field of 68 teams that each had their own unique story and journey to the NCAA Tournament. There were twists and turns, injuries and healthy returns, blowouts, buzzer-beaters and individual performances that we will be talking about for years to come. As the womenโs basketball world descends on the Arizona desert for the final encore of this yearโs Big Dance, we wonder who has the right song picked out to be the last team with their dancing shoes still on.
To be the team standing on the podium with the trophy and confetti cannons, you need talented players who play as a cohesive unit, and possibly a little bit of luck. Here atย The Weekly Fast Break,ย weย know that the teams in the 2026 Final Four must spend the next three days pushing away the distractions and fanfare, turning off the notifications on their phones, and preparing to win a championship. We land in the โValley of the Sunโ to see who has one last number left on their dance card. On Sunday, April 5, one team will rise above the rest and bask in the celebratory sunlight โ who has the most left to be crowned national champions?
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National Semifinal No. 1 โ UConn vs. South Carolina 6 pm CST on ESPN (April 3)
Many would say that if you are a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, you arrive at the Big Dance with a target on your back. No one has had a bigger one this season than the defending national champions. UConn is riding a 54-game winning streak, and the Huskies fully understand that this time of year, you get everyoneโs best shot. For just the second time in NCAA history, the same four teams that were in the 2025 Final Four are on their way to Phoenix for another showdown in 2026. The semifinal matchups look different, but the stakes are at an all-time high and UConn arrives as the team to beat.
(Photo credit: Chris Jones | Imagn Images)
The Huskies are at their third straight Final Four as the champions of the Fort Worth 1 Regional. They scored over 90 points in their first two NCAA Tournament games, blowing out No. 16 seed UTSA (90-52) and then blasting No. 9 seed Syracuse in the Round of 32 (98-45). UConn then took care of the fourth-seeded UNC Tar Heels, led by North Carolina native Sarah Strong. The sophomore sensation had 21 points and 10 boards in the Sweet 16 victory, setting up a showdown with No. 6 seed Notre Dame in the regional final. The Fighting Irish peaked at the right time to get themselves to the Elite Eight for the first time since 2019 on the back of All-American guard Hannah Hidalgo. The junior posted a triple-double with 31 points, 11 rebounds and 10 steals in the Sweet 16 upset of No. 2 seed Vanderbilt, 67-64.ย ย
When these two teams met back in January, UConn handed the Irish a 38-point defeat, the most lopsided loss to the Huskies in the series between the two programs. The Elite Eight matchup was much closer as the Huskies took an eight-point lead into halftime (32-25). But the size and athleticism of UConn were too much for the Irish to match โ Strong finished with 21 points, freshman Blanca Quiรฑonez had 20 points and eight rebounds, and senior guard Azzi Fudd added 13 points. UConnโs defense caused 18 turnovers, and Hidalgo was the only Notre Dame player to reach double figures with 22 points in the 70-52 UConn win.ย
The balance and versatility of this yearโs version of the Huskies is what has made head coach Geno Auriemmaโs team so dominant. Unselfish play, relentless rebounding, and the top defense in the nation that allows 50.1 points per game is all part of the winning combination.ย ย The Huskies are arriving in the Valley of the Sun as the favorites to claim their 13th national title. There is no Paige Bueckers on the floor for UConn, but when you need big shots taken and elite plays made, Strong and Fudd are two All-Americans any coach would want on their team. Can the complement/role players, such as guards KK Arnold and Ashlynn Shade, be defensive stoppers and perimeter threats in the Final Four? Can 6โ4 Wisconsin transfer Serah Williams step up to not only protect the paint but score on the low block? Geno will have the game plans โ now his squad just needs to execute them.
When the brackets were revealed, we all realized that if the seeds held, we would be looking at a rematch of the 2025 national championship in this yearโs semifinals. South Carolina is headed to their sixth straight Final Four after emerging as the champions of the Sacramento 4 Regional. The Gamecocks scored over 100 points in their first two games of the Big Dance and then controlled the high-flying offense of No. 4 seed Oklahoma in the Sweet 16. The Sooners, who averaged over 85 points per game this season, were the only team to beat South Carolina during the regular season in the SEC. The Gamecocks got their revenge in a big way, taking down OU 94-68, led by 28 points from senior TaโNiya Latson, who was playing in her first Sweet 16.ย
The path to Phoenix for Dawn Staleyโs squad ran through the Big 12 regular season champions and a team in their second-straight Elite Eight, TCU. The portal reload for the Horned Frogs worked yet again in Fort Worth, and Mark Campbellโs squad found themselves one win away from the programโs first-ever Final Four. Transfers Olivia Miles (Notre Dame) and Marta Suarez (Cal) were unstoppable in their 79-69 win over No. 10 seed Virginia in the Sweet 16. Controlling tempo and creating easy shots the way they like in the pick-and-roll system against the Gamecocks is another story. South Carolina took a 35-27 lead into the locker room at half as TCU had Miles playing with early foul trouble and Suarez hobbling after an ankle injury in the second quarter. The second half saw South Carolina dominate on the glass and execute with ease for high-percentage looks. Sophomore Joyce Edwards posted a double-double (24 points and 12 boards), guard Raven Johnson had 10 points and 8 rebounds, and sharp-shooter Tessa Johnson went 3-for-3 from deep to put the game out of reach and seal a 78-52 Elite 8 victory.
In their first four games in the NCAA Tournament, the Gamecocks are holding teams to 53.8 points per game. Are the Gamecocks playing their best basketball of the year? They must continue to get the consistency they have had the past three weeks from their starters and a boost from their bench. Freshman Agot Mekeer has emerged as a key reserve for Staley as the 6โ1 stretch guard has been in double-figures every game of the NCAA Tournament, including a career-high 18 points against TCU. If the intensity and urgency travel with them to Phoenix, there is no question that this South Carolina squad is difficult to beat.
National Semifinal #2 โ UCLA vs Texas at 8:30 pm CST on ESPN (April 3)
Last year, it was a season of firsts for UCLA. The Bruins were embarking on their first run as members of the Big Ten and captured the conference tournament title. They rose to the ranks of No. 1 in the nation and advanced to their first-ever Final Four appearance in the NCAA era. The 2025-26 season has been one of near perfection for UCLA โ an undefeated Big Ten regular season, a conference tourney title to match it, and just one loss overall on the season. The one blemish on the 35-1 season just so happened to come against their next opponent as they return to the Final Four for the second time in program history. The Bruins won their first two games of the Spokane 1 Regional at home to advance to the Sweet 16 against Big Ten foe Minnesota.
The No. 4 seed Golden Gophers were down just five at halftime, but a run by the Bruins to open the second half put some distance between the two teams. The Bruins stymied any momentum Minnesota tried to generate, holding them to just 38% from the field for the game and riding their balance to an 80-56 victory. 20 assists on 32 made field goals speak volumes to how UCLA can spread the wealth. Senior guard Kiki Rice had 21 points while 6โ7 center Lauren Betts went 7-for-9 from the field for 16 points.
Standing in the way of a repeat trip to the Final Four for UCLA was No. 3 seed Duke, which advanced to the regional final by knocking off No. 2 seed LSU 87-75. The Blue Devils needed last-second heroics by senior guard Ashlon Jackson, who sank a three-pointer at the buzzer to send the Tigers packing. Defense had to be the name of the game for Duke if they wanted any chance of derailing the Bruins, and they held strong in the first 20 minutes. The Blue Devils were up eight at halftime and were holding on to a four-point lead in the third quarter before UCLA went on a 10-2 run. It was just the second time all season that UCLA trailed at halftime. Head coach Cori Closeโs squad turned the tables on Duke, holding them without a bucket for over six minutes in the second half and shutting them down from deep as the Blue Devils went just 1-for-13 from three for the game. Betts faced double teams all night from Duke but overcame a slow start to score 23 points and pull down 10 boards. Fellow senior Angela Dugalic logged 30 minutes off the bench for UCLA and finished with 15 points and six rebounds.
They say everything is bigger in Texas, and the 2025-26 version of the Longhorn womenโs basketball team has lived up to that billing. Vic Schaeferโs squad lost just three games and occupied a top-five spot in the AP Top 25 poll all year. They finished second in the SEC regular season standings and captured the programโs first SEC Tournament title by dispatching fellow Final Four team South Carolina in the finals. That victory helped them claim the No. 1 seed of the Fort Worth 3 Regional and the opportunity to play just 190 miles from home. They dispatched with Missouri State in Round 1 and dominated Oregon in the Round of 32, setting up a matchup with No. 5 seed Kentucky in the Sweet 16.
The two teams played just once during the SEC regular season and that was an 11-point win for the Longhorns in January. Texas controlled the game in Fort Worth from the tip with unmatched runs, including outscoring the Wildcats 29-11 in the first quarter. Texasโ relentless pressure defense led to a long day offensively for Kentucky, who turned it over 24 times and shot just 37% from the floor. Fifth-year senior Rori Harmon led the charge by stuffing the stat sheet for Schaefer with 11 points, seven assists, seven rebounds and six steals. Sophomore Jordan Lee had 18 points in 37 minutes, and junior All-American Madison Booker added 17 to push Texas into the Elite Eight.
This was the only regional to have the seeds hold and so the road to the Longhornsโ second consecutive Final Four would go through No. 2 seed Michigan. The Wolverines, who tied a program record for wins this season, dispatched No. 3 seed Louisville in the Sweet 16 to advance to their second Elite Eight in five years. Michigan came into the matchup averaging 82 points per game in the NCAA Tournament, but the physical pressure of the Longhorn defense was the difference from the jump. Texas also was unconscious in the first quarter, missing just one shot and racing out to a 22-9 lead. On the night, Michigan shot just 23% from the field, and their 41 total points were their lowest scoring output of the season.
Harmon set the tone for Texas in the 77-41 victory, dishing out 13 assists while four Longhorns scored in double-figures, led by Booker, who had 19 points and 7 rebounds. Schaefer, now in his sixth season as the head coach on the Forty Acres, is the only head coach to take multiple teams to multiple Final Fours (Texas and Mississippi State). The Longhorns leave their home state for the first time in this NCAA Tournament with very little dirt on their cowgirl boots as they two-step their way to Phoenix.
This national semifinal will be a rematch of the Nov. 26 tussle of UCLA and Texas at the Players Era Championship in Las Vegas. That game was completely controlled by the Longhorns, who handed the Bruins their only loss of the season 76-65. Texas led for almost 39 minutes and forced 20 turnovers by UCLA. They also held Lauren Betts, who battled an injury that game, to just eight points with quick-hit double teams and disrupting entry passes from the UCLA guards. Harmon was spectacular that night in Sin City, dropping 26 points and five assists. Can UCLAโs experienced guards play with pace and poise against the Longhorns defense and find a way to contain Harmon? How will Texas match up with Betts, knowing the balance for the Bruins is much better now than it was in November?ย ย Can you find a way to beat a team twice to get a shot at a national title? They will have to get by the wizardry of Westwood first to find out.
PREDICTION TIME
We have spent the season here atย The Weekly Fast Breakย guided by a quote from tennis legend Bille Jean King โย โpressure is a privilege โ it only comes to those that earn it.โ Our endless pursuit of offense rebounds and three-point makes has led us to find the stellar stories that make womenโs college basketball so special. We have witnessed outstanding team accomplishments, record-setting individual performances, fearless freshmen who became stars and sometimes even difficult topics. We talk constantly about the growth of the game, but with growing pains comes the reality that college athletics is changing and so is womenโs basketball.ย
This yearโs Final Four will be a showcase of players, coaches and teams who have embraced the pressure on their way to this moment. We spent the regular season shying away from game predictions, only to tell you who you should keep an eye on throughout the year. But the songs have now been selected, and our dance card is full. Enjoy the final moments in the desert sun of the 2026 college basketball season. And remember โ to be the best, you must beat the best.
National Championship Game: UConn vs. UCLA on Sunday, April 5
2026 National Champions: UConn Huskies
*All statistics cited in this column are sourced from university and conference-provided statistics
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