U.S. Open quarters are set. Who’s taking it all?

(1) Aryna Sabalenka vs. Marketa Vondrousova
(4) Jessica Pegula vs. Barbora Krejcikova
(11) Karolina Muchova vs. (23) Naomi Osaka
(2) Iga Swiatek vs. (8) Amanda Anisimova

Now, here comes prediction time.

First up, we have defending champion Aryna Sabalenka, who hasn’t dropped a set in her first four matches against Marketa Vondrousova. In her last 11 Grand Slams, she’s made the quarterfinals in all of them and is 10-1 in that round. When the going gets tough, she’s the easiest to bet on. However, Vondrousova is a giant killer, especially at Grand Slams. This tournament alone she’s knocked out No. 32 McCartney Kessler, No. 7 Jasmine Paolini and No. 9 Elena Rybakina in her last three matches respectively and her lone set dropped was against Rybakina.

This will be the tenth meeting between the pair, with Sabalenka currently leading 5-4. They’ve met twice this year with Vondrousova grabbing the upset on the grass in Berlin, while Sabalenka got revenge a few weeks ago in the Cincinnati second round. While the Czech has the game and serve to outcraft Sabalenka, I think the World No. 1 is on autopilot when it comes to Grand Slams and she’ll find herself in another semifinal.
Prediction: Sabalenka in straight sets

The next quarterfinal we have is Jessica Pegula facing off against Barbora Krejcikova, who both many didn’t have reaching this stage. For Pegula, last year’s runner-up, she hasn’t had the most ideal summer and was entering New York with a lack of confidence. For Krejcikova, she had to save a U.S. Open-record eight match points in her incredible comeback win over Taylor Townsend in the fourth round. The Czech missed a chunk of the season with injury but has found some recent form with a fourth round showing in Cincinnati and now her second career U.S. Open quarterfinal with wins over Montreal champion No. 22 Victoria Mboko and No. 10 Emma Navarro. It will be Krejcikova’s all-court game against the counterpunching Pegula brings and I think this could be a fun tussle. Both have a lot to gain with a win for different reasons but I believe the New York crowd will be the biggest intangible here, which greatly benefits Pegula.
Prediction: Pegula in three sets

The third quarter of the draw got completely decimated by the second round and I was extremely curious who would emerge here. Why I’m surprised third Czech Karolina Muchova is one of the players is beyond me. Whenever she’s back from injury, she will find a deep Grand Slam run and she’s had to take all four of her matches in a third set. She was on the ropes against Venus Williams in the opening round and then proceeded to defeat Cleveland champion Sorana Cirstea, No. 21 Linda Noskova and then No. 27 Marta Kostyuk. She also loves New York as she’s made the semifinals at the previous two editions, however someone who also enjoys it is her opponent, Naomi Osaka.

The two-time champion is re-inspired with a new coach and a fun fact is, whenever she’s made the quarterfinals of a major, she’s left with the trophy. The former World No. 1 has only lost one set in her four matches – to No. 15 Daria Kasatkina – but her fourth round win over No. 3 Coco Gauff could be the start of a big breakthrough back. Muchova has all the tools to win, but I think the amount of tennis she’s played, plus the confidence Osaka is running on won’t be enough.
Prediction: Osaka in straight sets

Lastly, we have Iga Swiatek facing off against Amanda Anisimova in the final quarterfinal and a rematch of this year’s Wimbledon final. The final that saw Swiatek stun with a 6-0, 6-0 demolition over the American. Anisimova became only the sixth American player within the last 20 years to make the quarterfinals in all four Majors with her win over No. 18 Beatriz Haddad Maia, while Swiatek made her third career quarterfinal in New York after knocking out No. 13 Ekaterina Alexandrova. Both have dropped a set en route to their matchup, but Swiatek is riding high on confidence following her titles at Wimbledon and Cincinnati.

Ansimova will look to do better in their second meeting, but I guess you can only go up if the only time you played was a double bagel? This can be an exciting encounter because of the New York atmosphere and the change in court surface. However, Swiatek has recaptured the form that took her to No. 1 and dominated much of the last few years. I don’t see an upset happening here at this time, but it will be closer than Wimbledon.
Prediction: Swiatek in two sets

From there? Who knows. I do think we’ll have a Sabalenka-Swiatek showdown and it’s honestly a toss-up but my draw at the start of the tournament had Sabalenka taking it all so I’m sticking there.

On to links!

This Week in Women’s Tennis

Taylor Townsend found herself in the press after she upset Jelena Ostapenko, who said some unsavory comments at their handshake. Townsend would make the fourth round and have eight match points to make the quarterfinals but it’s been a long journey from the American – at the same tournament where she hit her professional rock bottom over a decade ago. Could this be the start of a Taylor Townsend that could be a force in both singles and doubles?

Billie Jean King sat down to discuss where women’s sports is right now and where it can and should go.

Loved this from Sloane Stephens:

Hailey Baptiste is a name to continue to watch out for as she continues her career-best year.

While the college tennis preseason rankings were unveiled, lots of alums (and current students) were making waves at the U.S. Open.

Congrats to former Doubles World No. 1 Anna Kournikova, who is expecting her fourth child with husband Enrique Iglesias.

Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi hopes to be the next breakthrough for Indian tennis as she competes in this year’s U.S. Open junior tournament.

Professional Kelly Keller, like me, hates cooking, so she shared some Trader Joe’s finds that can fuel you to hit the ITF circuit, too.

As a queer tennis player, I truly appreciate the USTA’s efforts to be inclusive at the U.S. Open and having Brian Vahaly at the helm of the board does help.

Former pro Louise Allen shares how tennis and her career taught her about pivoting and persevering through adversity.

INTENNSE is a new professional tennis league that could blow up within the next year or two.

Tweet of the Week

Five at The IX: U.S. Open Week 1

“I love to be the defending champion. For me, it’s motivation. I want to do well. I want to do the same that I did last year. I want to feel those emotions. I really worked hard for that.” — Aryna Sabalenka

“Maybe I’m crazy or something, but I always feel like you have to imagine it, and then you have to believe it for it to actually come true. But you’re also speaking to the kid that visualized playing Serena [Williams], too. I feel like there’s a lot of power in dreaming and believing.” — Naomi Osaka

“I think more than anything, I gained the respect of everyone in the tennis world and put a lot of my competitors on notice.” — Taylor Townsend

“I don’t think it gets much better than Ashe, a night match, just with the energy and the atmosphere. I don’t think you can beat it being in New York City. It’s just very electric, rowdy, fun, a little bit chaotic. I feel like it’s just kind of New York in a nutshell.” — Jessica Pegula

“The biggest thing that I have come to really appreciate about my job is all of the little kids that we get to see and inspire. Just the little moments of walking through the airport and having someone run up to you and want an autograph. It really just kind of puts everything into perspective.” — Madison Keys