SACRAMENTO, Calif. – Cinderella wants to keep dancing. For No. 10 seed Virginia, that would mean a third consecutive upset. For No. 3 seed TCU, it means a response after nearly falling victim to an upset against Washington last round.
Overall, the Cavaliers (22-11) and Horned Frogs (31-5) meet up in one of the more fascinating — and least-projected — games in March. Virginia upset No. 7 seed Georgia after winning a play-in game against Arizona State, then stunned No. 2 seed Iowa to become the first 10-seed to advance to the Sweet 16 since 2022.
TCU, still hungry off the Big 12 championship defeat to West Virginia, has had a shaky open to the tournament with an overtime win over No. 6 seed Washington.
Both teams finished last in their respective conferences just four years ago, and have gotten to this moment in much different ways. TCU’s entire starting lineup are transfers while Virginia has built around junior Kymora Johnson…. and a bunch of transfers around her.
“She committed to a program that was coming off a season before we got there of 5-22 and dead last in the ACC,” said Virginia head coach Amaka Aguga-Hamilton. “She believed in the vision. We talked about the vision. We talked about this moment. And I didn’t know when it was going to come. She didn’t know when it was going to come. It was just kind of leading with blind faith.”
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As many differences as there are in team building there are similarities to what the programs have faced. While Virginia didn’t play in any postseason a year ago, TCU was in a worse position not much longer ago.
It was only 2024 when the Horned Frogs had to hold open tryouts and forfeited games due to injury. Since then, head coach Mark Campbell has built with the portal, bringing in stars Sedona Prince and Hailey Van Lith last season and the slew of transfers this year.
“There is a blueprint,” he said. “There is a formula. Finding the right people. At the end of the day, you need elite talent and elite people to win at the highest level. So we have been very strategic with the talent we’ve added, the people we’ve added.”
TCU was a popular pick to upset Iowa in this round, but with the Hawkeyes out of the mix early, the Horned Frogs now find themselves as a favorite once more.
In the three seasons since Campbell took the helm, TCU has won the seventh-most games (86) of any Division I program and notched 20 AP Top 10 rankings over the last three seasons.
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The heart of the Horned Frogs comes from Olivia Miles and Marta Suarez. Miles could have gone pro last season as a projected WNBA lottery pick out of Notre Dame but elected to play one last season in Fort Worth.
Suarez spent the past two seasons at Cal and was instrumental to the Bears’ return to the NCAA Tournament a season ago before opting to spend a grad season at TCU.
“So I think with Marta and Olivia, they’re just old veterans that have been in so many big-time battles,” Campbell said. “I think that’s the greatest asset going into this game. Those two are just excited, they don’t want their journey to end. They’re ready to get after it.”
But even with a slight size mismatch against TCU, Virginia has been dominant defensively in the paint all season. The Cavaliers are 11th in the nation in defensive rebounding and third in blocked shots.
The Horned Frogs, who rank 19th in the nation in scoring from 3-point distance, might have to rely on it.
“I think this Virginia team, in recent years, has a lot more size and a lot more depth,” said Miles, who faced Virginia often in her first four years with Notre Dame in the ACC. “I think they’ve been together for a while, so I think they’re getting used to playing with each other more and more. I think their chemistry, out of all the times I’ve played them, their chemistry looks nails this year.”
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In a tournament where zero mid-majors won a game, Virginia has gotten to this point the hard way with three wins against power conference foes already.
“This is what I came here to do,” Johnson said. “This is what they came here to do. And seeing it come to fruition has just been amazing. Truly a blessing.”
Virginia is used to being the underdog by now. In a way, TCU has a chip on its shoulder, too. The Frogs are just 9.5 point favorites against a team that nearly no one expected to be on this stage.
“I think it gave us a lot of energy,” Suarez said. “Like, okay, we did that and we know we’ve had some ugly games during the season. We pulled this one off. On to the next one. And you kind of then learn from it and keep growing.”