Howdy, y’all and Happy Tennis Tuesday!
We’re in the second week at the Miami Open and the women’s draw at Hard Rock Stadium has delivered everything a tennis fan could ask for. Fresh off the desert heat in Indian Wells, there was chaos in the early rounds — No. 2 Iga Swiatek was ousted in her opening match for the first time since 2021 — and now a quarterfinal slate that ranges from heavy favorites continuing to dominate to surprise Cinderella runs.
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Here’s what to watch as four matches determine who plays for the title:
(1) Aryna Sabalenka vs. Hailey Baptiste
The defending champion walks into this quarterfinal in the form of her life, having just edged out Rybakina in a three-set Indian Wells final. She’s still chasing the Sunshine Double, a feat no woman has pulled off since Iga Swiatek in 2022. Sabalenka’s power game on the Miami hardcourts is borderline suffocating, and the pressure she puts on any opponent from the first ball tends to only increase as a tournament goes deeper. Though you can tell there’s a slight hangover from Indian Wells, she hasn’t dropped a set on South Beach.
But let’s talk about Baptiste for a second. The 24-year-old from Washington, D.C., is ranked 45th in the world and has been absolutely sensational this week. Her upset of 9th-seeded Elina Svitolina in the fourth round was only her second career Top 10 win. Remarkably, she has also yet to drop a set through the entire tournament. She is not here by accident, but Sabalenka is a different level of opponent, and the margin for error shrinks considerably. Still, get a chance to watch the American’s variety on display because you’re going to see a lot more of her this year.
Pick: Sabalenka in straight sets
(3) Elena Rybakina vs. (5) Jessica Pegula
This is the most compelling matchup of the quarterfinals on paper, and the one most likely to produce the round’s best tennis. Rybakina has been a machine in 2026 — she is now ranked No. 2 in the world and has met Sabalenka in three straight top-tier finals. She’s a two-time runner-up at the Miami Open and also came within a match of the Sunshine Double in 2023.
Pegula, meanwhile, is having a career year. She’s off to a 16-3 start in 2026, including a WTA 1000 title in Dubai. She’s made a final, two semis, and a quarterfinal at the Miami Open over the past four years. Nobody in this field is more comfortable on this court than the American. The problem is the head-to-head: two of Pegula’s three losses this season came as straight-sets defeats at the hands of Rybakina, including at the Indian Wells quarterfinals. Rybakina knows how to close out this particular matchup. Until Pegula shows she can solve that puzzle, it’s hard to pick against the Kazakh.
Pick: Rybakina, likely in straight sets
(4) Coco Gauff vs. (12) Belinda Bencic
Gauff reached her first-ever Miami Open quarterfinal with a 6-3, 4-6, 6-2 win over Sorana Cirstea and the local flavor matters here. She trains 20 minutes from the site and has talked openly about wanting a deep run in what amounts to her home tournament. She’s been up-and-down this year, dealing with arm trouble at Indian Wells, but when she’s locked in mentally, few players on tour are more dangerous.
Bencic punched her ticket by impressively beating Amanda Anisimova, and at 9-3 on the season she’s been one of the more consistent players in the draw. The Swiss veteran brings a varied, flat game that can neutralize Gauff’s heavy groundstrokes. Still, Gauff’s defense and court coverage on these courts feel like a significant edge, and this reads like the moment she finally makes some real noise in Miami.
Pick: Gauff in three sets
(10) Victoria Mboko vs. (13) Karolina Muchova
Saving this one for last because it might be the most intriguing match of the day. Mboko, the 19-year-old Canadian, took down Mirra Andreeva 7-6(4), 4-6, 6-0 to reach the quarterfinals, continuing a breakout year in which she has established herself as a legitimate top-10 force. All five of her losses this season have come against top-20 competition and she has been essentially flawless against everyone else. I also need to shout again that SHE MADE HER WTA MAIN DRAW DEBUT HERE A YEAR AGO AND IS TOP 10! It’s kind of insane.
Muchova, on the other hand, is perhaps the most dangerous player in this quarter of the draw. She demolished Alexandra Eala 6-0, 6-2 in the round of 16 and comes in at 14-3 on the year with a WTA 1000 title in Doha already in her pocket. Her unpredictable, all-court game is the kind of thing that gives younger players nightmares. This is the quarterfinal that feels most genuinely 50-50. Go with the experience and variety of Muchova — but don’t be shocked if Mboko makes another statement.
Pick: Muchova in three sets
Like I mentioned last week, it’s really hard to bet against Aryna Sabalenka. I still think she’ll be able to take the Sunshine Double. That Sabalenka-Rybakina winner will be quite the heavy favorite and if I had to guess, we’ll see them defeat Coco Gauff in the final.
On to links!
This Week in Women’s Tennis
After having her 73-opening match winning streak snapped by compatriot Magda Linette, Iga Swiatek announced she’s parted ways with coach Wim Fissette:
As someone who buys too much of Lululemon’s tennis-specific line and just had more arrive yesterday, I enjoyed this dive into their explosion into tennis.
The Sunshine Double catapults players into new heights and this year’s stars are Talia Gibson and Hailey Baptiste.
Ons Jabeur made it clear that she’s planning to come back once she gives birth to her son.
Francesca Jones was able to defeat one of her idols in Venus Williams in her Miami opener and she’s hoping to use that to bounce back from a tough year with injury struggles.
Jennifer Brady was out for 848 days with multiple injuries and surgeries and she’s just appreciating being able to come back and compete.
Daily Danielle Collins appreciation post(s):
Growing up wanting to be a ballkid at the Miami Open, Amanda Anisimova revels in being able to play in her backyard.
This week’s episode of The Player’s Box Podcast delves into their Miami Open memories:
A year after her breakthrough run, Alexandra Eala continues to focus on being grounded even though she’s gone through a meteoric rise up the rankings.
Alycia Parks learning from the GOAT and keeping the potential comeback a bit mum:
Will we have another future Wozniacki pro on our hands?
Jeff Coetzee, coach of the No. 1 WTA doubles team in the race of Anna Danilina and Aleksandra Krunic, discusses their rise, tactics and more.
The Top 4 players of the world are all signed up to play in the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix in Stuttgart next month.
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Tweet of the Week
I mean, who doesn’t love these full circle moments:
Five at The IX: Miami Open Week 1
Q. There have been some unexpected or disappointing losses for yourself over the last month or two months, et cetera, so how important was winning Indian Wells for you, looking ahead for here and beyond?
ARYNA SABALENKA: Yeah, that was very important win. Was very important win. I just didn’t want to lose third final in the row to Elena. And also, I’m super tired of losing those big finals.
I feel like, you know, in all of those matches I had my chances, which I didn’t use. And then I just gave a lot of opportunities to the players. They played incredible tennis. It’s very disappointing, leaving the court knowing that you had your chances and you didn’t take it.
That match was very important for me. I wanted to prove to myself that it’s okay, you can lose tough matches, but you can come back stronger and get the win.
Also, for the future, it just gave me extra confidence that it’s okay. I’m there. It was tough losses, but they gave me so much. I’m stronger mentally, and yeah, mentally it was very important win.
Q. Given that you are from and live in Delray, curious what it feels like somewhat of a hometown tournament and to have the crowd, family, friends, and if it affects your routine at all being closer to home?
COCO GAUFF: Yeah, I mean, only thing is just the distance. I choose to stay at home just because it’s only about a 20-more-minute commute from Brickell. So I’d rather just spend the extra 20 minutes in the car driving and be home.
So that’s the only difference in routine. Also, I forget I can get my laundry done here, so I keep taking my laundry home just out of habit. And then also just seeing my brothers. Today I threw some footballs, throws with my brother before the warm-up, and hearing my other brother’s voice, he was really loud today. At one point he, like, scared me.
They do know tennis etiquette, but I guess they don’t care because they have been around tennis their whole lives. He just screams really loud.
No, I think the biggest thing is just wanting to do really well in front of your family, and I had to remind myself today that they’re always watching, regardless if they’re in person or not, so I tried to take that pressure off.
Q. This question is a little bit off-topic, but you are open to talk about any kind of subject like sometimes politics and stuff. I was wondering where that kind of knowledge or where that kind of belief came from, from your family or can you talk a little bit about that?
COCO GAUFF: Yeah, I think from my family, I think — you know, you just grow up I think with strong influences in your family. My grandmother actually integrated a public school in Delray Beach. She was the first Black student to attend that school.
So I think when you have someone like that in your life, you just naturally, that’s just how I was raised. We talk about tough things in our household. We talk about basically everything.
My parents have never told me to shy away from what I believe in. Yeah, I think I try to always approach these things more on a moral level than a political level.
I think, for me, some people view it as political. I view it more as humane, so I’m always going to advocate for the moral, good thing to do. Want to talk about taxes and stuff like that, then that’s up for discussion, but when it comes to human rights and equality, I think that’s just something, it’s very easy for me to talk about, because morally, I think that’s the right thing to do.
Q. I was going to go back to your response about, so your team didn’t want you to play and you kind of wanted to prove them wrong. Do you kind of feed off that sort of energy of proving people wrong a little bit? Like, is that something that not that you like to do, but you kind of feed off that energy?
COCO GAUFF: Yeah, I think so. I mean, even last year my team didn’t want me to go to China and then I semi’d and won there. I don’t know. I guess it’s a thing.
My parents will definitely tell you I’m stubborn, and I will stand on my heel, I’ll die on my heel. I think I’m just that type of person. Maybe it does make me play better.
No, I obviously take the considerations of my team, and I did consider it. You know, life happens and you just realize, you know, if I had the opportunity to play this tournament, I’d rather take it up, because you don’t know what’s gonna happen.
Tomorrow is not a promise. I just want to make sure I make decisions that I know I won’t regret in the future. I think I would regret not playing more so than playing, because at least if I played and did bad, well, I guess I have time to train for clay season, whereas if I didn’t play, I’m just going to be watching the tournament and be, like, I want to be out there for three weeks. I’d rather torture myself maybe for one day than three weeks.
Q. Throughout various press conferences you like to mention the phrase ‘spoonful of gratitude’, how you’ve embraced that. You made your big breakthrough moment here. When you mention that phrase, where does that gratitude come from?
ALEXANDRA EALA: I think the fact I recognize that I’m also blessed to be living my life, or the life that I live. Of course, I’ve earned it. I’ve definitely earned it. I’ve put in the work. That’s not to be questioned.
Then again, I think it’s so important to be grateful for what you have. I’ve witnessed poverty in surroundings, in my surroundings. I don’t take for granted anything, especially family and my team and just the opportunities I’m able to have. So that’s why I make it a point to always be grateful.
“Becoming Caitlin Clark” is out now!
Howard Megdal’s newest book is here! “Becoming Caitlin Clark: The Unknown Origin Story of a Modern Basketball Superstar” captures both the historic nature of Clark’s rise and the critical context over the previous century that helped make it possible, including interviews with Clark, Lisa Bluder (who also wrote the foreword), C. Vivian Stringer, Jan Jensen, Molly Kazmer and many others.
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