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We’re a week down at the 2026 Wimbledon Championships and I honestly wouldn’t have predicted the Elite Eight we have in store:
(14) Naomi Osaka vs. (10) Karolรญna Muchovรก
(4) Jessica Pegula vs. (7) Coco Gauff
(12) Marta Kostyuk vs. (13) Jasmine Paolini
(9) Linda Noskovรก vs. (25) Elise Mertens
For the ninth year running, the All England Club will crown a first-time women’s champion. That streak was already alive heading into the second week, but by Sunday and Monday, Aryna Sabalenka, Iga ลwiฤ tek, Barbora Krejฤรญkovรก and Elena Rybakina had all exited before the quarterfinals. This will be the ninth consecutive Wimbledon without a repeat winner and the tenth different champion in ten years โ the longest such run in tournament history. No woman has lifted the Venus Rosewater Dish twice since Serena Williams in 2016.
The top half of the draw is juicy and I’ll be honest โ I really hope the winner emerges from that section. With her fourth round win, Coco Gauff completed the career quarterfinal set at all four majors, while Naomi Osaka finally got some revenge against Aryna Sabalenka to reach her first Wimbledon quarterfinal. Karolรญna Muchovรก is into her third quarterfinal at SW19 and her all-court game is simply divine on the grass. Jessica Pegula has been scarily under-the-radar this fortnight and is my darkhorse to take it all. I’ve had a slight gut feeling before the tournament and I think the draw is in her favor.
I knew there could be a sneak or two to evolve in the draw and especially in the bottom half. However, all four quarterfinalists that remain proved me all the way wrong. I was not expecting Alex Eala to upset ลwiฤ tek, Elise Mertens kn0cking out Rybakina or Naomi Osaka overcoming Sabalenka yet here we are. I do also want to give Jasmine Paolini a shoutout because I was ten toes deep thinking she was going to bow out to Robin Montgomery in the opening round and she came back from 0-6, 2-4 down to find herself as the player with the most Grand Slam singles experience. Linda Noskovรก and her power is a lightning bolt on the surface, while the consistency of Mertens is something that cannot be ignored, either. Lastly, Marta Kostyuk has barely lost matches since April and has the hottest form to possibly be in Saturday’s final.
Now, let’s discuss the match-ups.
(14) Naomi Osaka vs. (10) Karolรญna Muchovรก
Osaka’s run to her maiden Wimbledon quarterfinal is something that’s been on the cusp for so long, but the Japanese would fall short. The four-time major champion has yet to drop more than one set all fortnight and on Sunday she delivered the signature win: a straight-sets upset of world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, 6-2, 7-6(2), snapping an eight-match personal losing streak to the Belarusian that stretched back to the 2018 US Open. It also ended Sabalenka’s run of 14 straight Grand Slam quarterfinals. Osaka credited aggressive return positioning and a decision to attack first in rallies rather than wait โ grass rewarding the version of her game built on serve and take back power.
Muchovรก, for her part, is peaking at exactly the right time. The Czech beat 2024 champion Barbora Krejฤรญkovรก in a bruising three-setter, 7-5, 5-7, 6-3, saving the match with a late break after Krejฤรญkovรก surged to a 5-2 second-set lead. It’s Muchovรก’s third Wimbledon quarterfinal, following breakthrough runs in 2019 and 2021, and she arrives with real momentum. Nine days ago she beat Osaka in the Bad Homburg final, though that match ended early when Osaka retired with a precautionary foot issue.
The two will meet for a seventh career time, with the head-to-head tied 3-3.
My pick: This is the round’s toughest call, but Osaka’s clean ball-striking and the psychological lift of the Sabalenka win tip it. Osaka in three, but honestly? Don’t be shocked if it’s two.
(4) Jessica Pegula vs. (7) Coco Gauff
An all-American quarterfinal that doubles as a changing of the guard test. Pegula dropped the first set to fellow American Iva Jovic before rediscovering her serve and closing it out 4-6, 6-3, 6-1. It’s the 10th career Grand Slam quarterfinal for a player still chasing her first major title. Notably, Pegula played all of Sunday’s match without a single double fault. The serve will be key moving forward.
Which leads us to Gauff, whose path was more dramatic. She trailed Belinda Bencic a set and was still battling into the London night, eventually closing out her three-set win with her first match point at 10:58 p.m. โ two minutes before the All England Club’s 11 p.m. curfew. She hit 35 winners in the comeback but also racked up nine double faults, a number that will need fixing against a returner as reliable as Pegula. It’s Gauff’s first Wimbledon quarterfinal despite already matching Serena Williams’ Grand Slam win total at age 22.
The pair have split their two prior grass meetings, and Pegula leads the overall series 5-3, most recently beating Gauff in three sets at the WTA Finals in Riyadh last November.
My pick: Pegula’s serve is the difference-maker here. If she keeps her error count as low as she did against Jovic, her flat, heavy ball should trouble Gauff’s backhand return all afternoon. Pegula in three.
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(12) Marta Kostyuk vs. (13) Jasmine Paolini
Kostyuk has been the form player of the bottom half, reaching her first Wimbledon quarterfinal by beating Ashlyn Krueger 6-4, 6-4 in a match in which she out-hit Krueger 22 winners to 10 and committed only 13 unforced errors. The Ukrainian is chasing her maiden major title and has openly joked with tournament staff about saving her celebratory backflip for that moment.
Paolini needed a full three sets to see off Filipino breakout star Alexandra Eala, 6-4, 4-6, 6-3, with Roger Federer watching from the Royal Box โ a moment Paolini admitted rattled her early before she settled in. It’s her third career major quarterfinal, and she remains the only woman left in the draw with Wimbledon final experience, having lost the 2024 title match to Krejฤรญkovรก. Whenever the Italian reaches a Grand Slam quarterfinal, she’s made the final. Take that for what you will.
Paolini and Kostyuk have met three times, with Paolini leading 2-1. All match-ups were on hard-courts and they haven’t met since Cincinnati 2023.
The pick: Paolini’s grass-court pedigree and big match composure give her a slight edge over a Kostyuk still finding her rhythm on the surface. Paolini in three.
(9) Linda Noskovรก vs. (25) Elise Mertens
The lowest-profile pairing of the round pits two players chasing career-best results. Noskovรก, the highest surviving seed in the bottom half, delivered the result of the day among the lower seeds by eliminating 2025 semifinalist and former Australian Open champion Madison Keys, 6-4, 7-6(2), riding a dominant serving performance. It’s Noskovรก’s first Wimbledon quarterfinal.
30-year-old Mertens is making her own milestone run โ also a first Wimbledon quarterfinal โ after a clinical 6-4, 6-4 win over Marie Bouzkovรก in which she saved 10 of 13 break points and out-hit her opponent 24 winners to 15. She won’t overpower Noskovรก, but the Belgian is quite crafty and to her own credit, is a two-time women’s doubles champion at the tournament. Even though it’s doubles, having that under your belt is massive.
This will be the first meeting against the two, which makes things a little more juicy.
My pick: Noskovรก’s ball speed and improved serve have been the standout tools of her tournament and they should be enough to trouble Mertens’ steadier, more defensive game. Noskovรก in two close sets.
From there, I’m taking a Pegula against ……… let’s go with Noskovรก. A rematch of the WTA 500 final in Berlin Noskovรก took in three sets, but this time I think we’re going to see a maiden Grand Slam champion for the second consecutive major.
Until then, it’s on to links!
This Week in Women’s Tennis
The partnership between the WTA and Saudi Tennis Association is done and the 2026 WTA Finals have been moved to Indian Wells, Calif.
Mariam Bolkvadze is in the midst of her final comeback from injury and had a career breakthrough this week by qualifying and making the second round just a few miles from her home.
Claire Liu is finding some form that originally led her to the Top 100 and she’s penning her thoughts on Substack, with this piece on being Asian in the sport getting a lot of eyeballs.
Zeynep Sรถnmez spoke out about not being able to wear a Pro-Palestine pin on her outfit at Wimbledon, but the tournament was fine to use a watermelon shock absorber on her racquet.
Ellie Coleman and Emma Jackson were teammates at Duke and now are toiling on the pro circuit, noting that life on the road has made them appreciate their time at Durham.
Naomi Osaka is eager to get the All England member pin:
Ashlyn Krueger was soaring last year, reaching No. 29 before things started to unravel. After multiple coaching changes, she’s on her own and has been the hottest player on grass and is a name to look out for this summer.
Elina Svitolina, Marta Kostyuk, Alex Eala and Venus Williams are among the entries for the Mubadala DC Open that begins at the end of the month.
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Tweet of the Week
Even if for one match, Serena Williams had us all captivated
Five at The IX: Wimbledon Week 1
“I just want to go, get completely drunk, forget about tennis, and try to get in better shape.” โ Aryna Sabalenka
“Well, you got me speechless there. It’s an honor to be able to pave the way for young girls. It would be the honor of my life to be able to inspire others. I think inspiration is such a beautiful thing. Then again, I think the main message here is that I don’t want them to look at me and say, I want to be the next Alex Eala. I want them to look at me and say, Wow, I want to be the first me.” โ Alex Eala
“You’re right, I would actually prefer to talk about my clothes. It’s kind of weird. In some ways I feel like I’m a lot more equipped to talk about my clothes than to talk about my tennis. It’s strange, because I’ve been playing tennis for 20-something years. Some days I don’t feel like an expert on it.” โ Naomi Osaka
“Honestly, I don’t care anymore about the results. I’ve been so focused on them that it’s hard to continue like that. So I’m really trying to let it go. I don’t have good results, so I’m not going to expect for myself good results because they’re just not happening. I need to work from the beginning and try to just get my tennis better.” โ Iga ลwiฤ tek
“The saga of the WTA Finals continues. It’s like we can’t catch a break, and I don’t necessarily think it’s our fault. There just tends to be a lot of world conflicts that seem to happen and get in the way.” โ Jessica Pegula
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