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Roland Garros began Sunday, and the women’s draw has produced something rarer than a clear-cut favorite: actual uncertainty. Four players at the very top of the sport have legitimate claims to the title, none of them has dominant form coming in, and the clay season produced two different champions at Madrid and Rome who weren’t among that group. The Suzanne-Lenglen Cup will be awarded on Saturday, June 6. Right now, picking the winner feels like an honest coin flip, just with four coins.
Aryna Sabalenka enters as the top seed and last year’s finalist, but she’s not arriving in Paris in commanding form. After losing to Hailey Baptiste in Madrid, a player who saved six match points to end a 15-match winning streak, Sabalenka ran into a surging Sorana Cรฎrstea in Rome, that loss compounded by a back injury.
And yet, the case for Sabalenka is straightforward: she’s been the most consistent Slam performer in the women’s game over the past two seasons, and the last time she won a major (the 2025 U.S. Open) she wasn’t exactly coming off the summer hardcourt swinging either. Her draw looks manageable on paper โ a first-round test against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, a potential fourth-round rematch with Naomi Osaka, and a likely quarterfinal against either Victoria Mboko or Jessica Pegula. The concern is that when Sabalenka has entered Slams as the clear-cut favorite, she hasn’t always been able to close. The pressure of being the number one seed at a tournament she desperately wants to win is a different kind of weight than she’s used to carrying.
Coco Gauff opens the defense of her title against fellow American Taylor Townsend, having won the 2025 Roland Garros final over Sabalenka 6โ7(5), 6โ2, 6โ4 in a match that showcased everything that makes her dangerous on this surface. Heavy topspin, relentless movement and a mental toughness that tends to peak at the Slams. Gauff arrived in Rome in strong form and pushed all the way to the final, losing a grueling three-set match while still clearly finding her range on the clay. Of the core favorites, she may have the clearest psychological edge. She’s won here before, she knows what closing a Roland Garros final feels like, and she’s just 22 years old.
Her section of the draw contains some landmines. Mirra Andreeva, Karolina Muchovรก, Sorana Cรฎrstea, Hailey Baptiste and Jasmine Paolini are all in her quarter of the bracket. Any one of those matches could end her tournament before the second week. The path to the final is genuinely difficult.
No player in this draw has a better Roland Garros record than Iga ลwiฤ tek. Four titles. A level of dominance on the Parisian clay that bordered on mechanical for most of 2022 and 2023. The question entering 2026 was whether she could find that version of herself again.
Her 2026 season has been turbulent: a 14-8 record entering Rome, no semifinal appearances before the clay swing, and a tearful retirement during her Madrid third-round match due to illness. Despite hiring former Nadal coach Francisco Roig ahead of the Stuttgart clay event, ลwiฤ tek managed only two match wins under his guidance before Rome.
Rome, though, changed the conversation. She reached the semifinals, and the ball-striking looked sharper and more deliberate. ลwiฤ tek’s first-round win over Emerson Jones at Roland Garros prompted former World No. 1 Mats Wilander to declare she “looks impossible to beat” on Philippe-Chatrier, noting she’s adjusted her positioning to play further behind the baseline, letting the high bounce do its work. Her draw is brutal after the first two rounds: a third-round appointment with Jeฤผena Ostapenko, who has historically troubled her, and a potential quarterfinal against Rome champion Elina Svitolina, whom she has lost to twice this season already.
Elena Rybakina is arguably the most interesting figure in this draw for one simple reason: the second seed has never reached a Roland Garros semifinal. She’s the most recent major winner in the field, having taken the Australian Open earlier this year, and she sits at a career-high ranking of No. 2. Her serve-and-forehand combination is devastatingly effective on any surface, and when she’s on, she has the power to dismantle anyone. The gap in her Roland Garros resume compared to her results elsewhere remains one of the sport’s more curious puzzles. Now, it looks like the best chance she’s had to solve it.
How do I think the draw will pan out? Time for some infamous predictions!
Round of 16
(1) Aryna Sabalenka def. (16) Naomi Osaka
(5) Jessica Pegula def. (19) Madison Keys
(4) Coco Gauff def. (14) Ekaterina Alexandrova
(6) Amanda Anisimova def. (23) Elise Mertens
(7) Elina Svitolina def. (11) Belinda Bencic
(3) Iga ลwiฤ
tek def. (15) Marta Kostyuk
(10) Karolina Muchovรก def. (8) Mirra Andreeva
(2) Elena Rybakina def. (18) Sorana Cรฎrstea
Quarterfinals
(1) Aryna Sabalenka def. (5) Jessica Pegula
(4) Coco Gauff def. (6) Amanda Anisimova
(7) Elina Svitolina def. (3) Iga ลwiฤ
tek
(2) Elena Rybakina def. (10) Karolina Muchovรก
Semi-Finals
(1) Aryna Sabalenka def. (4) Coco Gauff
(7) Elina Svitolina def. (2) Elena Rybakina
Final
(1) Aryna Sabalenka def. (7) Elina Svitolina
I would love for Svitolina to take it all this fortnight, but a Sabalenka at a Slam is usually on another level. We’ll just have to see.
On to links!
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This Week in Women’s Tennis
Top players are choosing to cap their press conferences at 15 minutes as a way to protest their share of Grand Slam prize money. Apparently, former WTA CEO Larry Scott is advising them:
Emma Navarro won her first title in 15 months at the Internationaux de Strasbourg, sharing that she’s rediscovered herself as a player recently and it’s translating on court.
Meanwhile, Petra Marฤinko captured her first WTA title at the Grand Prix Sar La Princesse Lalla Meryem in Rabat to continue her rise up the rankings.
With husband Gaรซl Monfils playing his final Roland Garros, wife Elina Svitolina penned a great tribute for The Players Tribune.
While college tennis programs are facing the heat with program cuts, there’s still a large contingent represented at Roland Garros:
Akasha Urhobo made her Grand Slam main draw debut at Roland Garros and her start to the game was different than the majority of her counterparts.
Another Grand Slam debut comes from Lilli Tagger, who has former Roland Garros champion Francesca Schiavone in her corner.
While they won’t have ELC technology like most of the previous tournaments, players opened up about playing on clay and its own challenges.
Tweet of the Week
Loved seeing Naomi Osaka and Taylor Townsend hosting a pre-Roland Garros dinner for Black players and explaining the reason behind it:
Five at The IX: Roland Garros Media Day
“As a woman, we really sacrifice a lot and we put a lot to be here. I’m really happy to see that we are moving towards [the] right direction.”ย โย Aryna Sabalenka on the continued pursuit, and progress, towards equal prize money.
“I had the best time ever playing. You can see why she’s such an icon. I learned so much from her, just from being around her.”ย โย Katie Boulter on what it was like to play doubles with Venus Williams in Madrid. Boulter added, unsurprisingly, that she’d love the opportunity to do so again, but it won’t be at Roland Garros โ Williams is set to play withย Hailey Baptisteย in Paris.
“When I play doubles, it reminds me of when me and my sister played ping-pong.” โ Mirra Andreeva expressing the joy she experiences when she plays doubles, as there’s less stress, fewer nerves and shared laughter with her partner, Diana Shnaider.
“He’s someone that I always looked forward to talking to in press, and sometimes there are few people that I feel like that [about]. I miss seeing Howard here, and just sending my prayers to his family.” โ Jessica Pegula, who began her press conference by sending condolences to the family of veteran Associated Press tennis writer Howard Fendrich, who tragically passed away this week.
“Spike Lee was right next to my towel box, so that was pretty cool.” โ Coco Gauff reflecting on having the Academy Award-winning filmmaker’s support during last year’s French Open final. It’s commonplace to see Spike courtside at Madison Square Garden, or in Arthur Ashe Stadium, but his presence at Court Philippe-Chatrier felt like quite the surprise.
“Becoming Caitlin Clark” is out now!
Howard Megdal’s newest book is here! “Becoming Caitlin Clark: The Unknown Origin Story of a Modern Basketball Superstar” captures both the historic nature of Clark’s rise and the critical context over the previous century that helped make it possible, including interviews with Clark, Lisa Bluder (who also wrote the foreword), C. Vivian Stringer, Jan Jensen, Molly Kazmer and many others.
Mondays: Soccer
By: Annie Peterson, @AnnieMPeterson, AP Womenโs Soccer
Tuesdays: Tennis
By: Joey Dillon, @JoeyDillon, Freelance Tennis Writer
Wednesdays: Basketball
By: Howard Megdal, @HowardMegdal, The IX Sports
Thursdays: Golf
By: Marin Dremock, @MDremock, The IX Sports
Fridays: Hockey
By: @TheIceGarden, The Ice Garden
Saturdays: Gymnastics
By: Jessica Taylor Price, @jesstaylorprice, Freelance Writer