Howdy y’all and welcome to Tennis Insider and also, Happy Pride Month!
The last week in Paris has been hot and wild, to say the least. Coco Gauff (reigning champion) is gone. Elena Rybakina (the hottest player in the last eight months) is gone. Iga Swiatek (four-time champion) is gone, taken out in straight sets by a Ukrainian who hadn’t lost a clay match all season. The chaos is real, and what’s left standing heading into the Roland Garros quarterfinals is genuinely compelling: a world number one who still hasn’t dropped a set, a qualifier who has no business being here, two Ukrainian women who are going to have to play each other, and a 36-year-old in what might be her farewell run.
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Oh, and Serena Williams announced her comeback yesterday. More on that later, but first lets break down the final eight.
(1) Aryna Sabalenka vs. (25) Diana Shnaider
Let’s be real: Sabalenka is the best player left in this draw by a significant margin. She beat Naomi Osaka on Monday night in the tournament’s first women’s primetime night session in three years, and she made it look routine — 7-5, 6-3, not a set dropped in four matches, playing the kind of aggressive, low-margin tennis that is just fundamentally harder to solve on clay than it has any right to be. With Gauff and Rybakina both eliminated, Sabalenka is now the heavy favorite to finally win one of the two majors that has kept eluding her.
Shnaider earned her spot here the hard way. The 20-year-old Russian — who has ranked as high as No. 11 and owns five tour titles — reversed three prior losses to Madison Keys in a three-set battle to reach her first Grand Slam quarterfinal. She’s earned this. She also has never played Sabalenka. That is a significant problem.
The styles aren’t totally mismatched; both players like to take the ball early, go for big groundstrokes, and impose themselves rather than construct points patiently. But Sabalenka is operating on a different wavelength right now. Shnaider’s path to winning this involves making Sabalenka uncomfortable early, forcing errors, and hoping the occasion doesn’t flatten her. The occasion will not flatten Sabalenka. She’s been waiting for this tournament for years.
Pick: Sabalenka in two.
(22) Anna Kalinskaya vs. (Q) Maja Chwalinska
This is the match of the quarterfinals — not because it’s the best tennis, but because of what Chwalinska has done to get here. The Polish qualifier, ranked outside the top 100, came through qualifying, survived the draw, and knocked out enough opponents that she now stands three wins from a Grand Slam title.
Chwalinska beat Diane Parry to reach the quarterfinals, and her presence in the last eight will change the trajectory of her career regardless of what happens next. She plays with nothing to lose. That’s a genuinely dangerous thing, especially at a Slam like Roland Garros that tends to always have a surprise Cinderella semifinalist.
Kalinskaya had to grind past Anastasia Potapova, the player who just knocked out defending champion Gauff, in a third-set super tiebreak to get here. It’s only her second career Grand Slam quarterfinal; her first was at the 2024 Australian Open. She’s a clean ball-striker with a flat, quick game that can dismantle opponents before they settle. On clay, her margins get thinner. Against a qualifier playing with house money, her margins need to be sharp.
The romantic in me wants Chwalinska, but the realist in me sees Kalinskaya finding her level when it matters.
Pick: Kalinskaya in two.
“Becoming Caitlin Clark” is out now!
Howard Megdal’s newest book is here! “Becoming Caitlin Clark: The Unknown Origin Story of a Modern Basketball Superstar” captures both the historic nature of Clark’s rise and the critical context over the previous century that helped make it possible, including interviews with Clark, Lisa Bluder (who also wrote the foreword), C. Vivian Stringer, Jan Jensen, Molly Kazmer and many others.
(7) Elina Svitolina vs. (15) Marta Kostyuk
The headline writes itself: two Ukrainian women, playing each other on the courts of Roland Garros. The geopolitical weight of this match is obvious and does not need to be overstated. They are colleagues in a sport that has been awkward and inconsistent about the war in Ukraine, and now they play for a Grand Slam semifinal.
The tennis case for each of them is real. Svitolina came into Paris having just won Rome (her third title there) and is on one of the best runs of her career. She’s into her sixth Roland Garros quarterfinal, has already reached the Australian Open semifinal this season, and is playing with the confidence of someone who has figured something out. She beat Belinda Bencic in three sets to get here after dropping the first set.
Kostyuk is 15-0 on clay this season. Fifteen and zero. She took down Swiatek in straight sets without blinking, and she won titles in Rouen and Madrid earlier on the swing. She beat Andreeva in the Madrid final. She is not intimidated by big names or big stages. Her quote after the Swiatek win was measured, almost defiant: “I’m still technically the underdog. Maybe a lot of things will change after this tournament.”
They might. Kostyuk’s form is the more remarkable story right now, but Svitolina’s experience (six quarterfinals in Paris and a 2023 Wimbledon semifinal during one of the most emotionally charged runs in recent memory) gives her a kind of steadiness under pressure that’s hard to manufacture. This one goes long. It gets emotional. It’s probably the best match of the quarterfinals.
Pick: Svitolina in three
(8) Mirra Andreeva vs. (18) Sorana Cirstea
Andreeva, only 19, is here for the third consecutive year. That alone tells you most of what you need to know: she’s not a young player making a surprise run anymore but a genuine contender in the back half of a major.
She demolished Jil Teichmann in the round of 16 and has looked increasingly locked in as the fortnight has gone on. She won the Linz title earlier this year, beating Cirstea in the quarterfinals there. She knows how this one plays.
Cirstea is 36, in what she’s described as her farewell season, and she’s making it count. A title in Cluj-Napoca, semifinals in Rouen and Rome, a quarterfinal in Linz before Andreeva ended it and now, back in the Roland Garros quarterfinals for the first time in 17 years. This is a great story. It is also, most likely, a story that ends here.
Andreeva is a decade and a half younger, playing better tennis, and already owns the head-to-head. Cirstea will compete. She always does, so don’t be surprised to see
Pick: Andreeva in three.
And Then There’s Serena
This morning, Serena Williams: 44 years old and four years removed from her last competitive match and announced she has accepted a wildcard into the doubles draw at the HSBC Championships at Queen’s Club next week. Her partner is, as rumored, Victoria Mboko. Queen’s begins June 8 and Wimbledon? June 29.
The math here is not subtle.
Williams re-entered the ITIA’s anti-doping testing pool late last year, a move that requires a six-month waiting period which cleared in February. She’d been posting about hitting again, making the usual non-committal noises, and then this morning posted an on-court video with the caption “Good news travels fast.” The internet immediately caught fire.
Let’s be honest about what this is. Doubles at a WTA 500 event is the lowest-stakes competitive re-entry she could have chosen. It shares physical burden, limits exposure, gives her a feel for match pace after four years away, and — crucially — it is a logical precursor to a Wimbledon wildcard request. Her career record on grass is 107-15. She has won seven Wimbledon singles titles. The All England Club would hand her a singles wildcard tomorrow if she asked. The question is whether she will.
Motivationally, a few things are going on. Venus, at 45, went to the US Open last summer and pushed Karolina Muchova to three sets in singles. Serena watched and posted: “I hope to be like you.” Whatever else is driving this, competitive sibling energy is in the mix. Beyond that, Serena has never been someone who simply walks away. She “evolved away” from tennis, as she put it, without ever formally retiring. She’s been waiting to see if she still wanted it. And apparently, she does.
Realistically: a 44-year-old who hasn’t played a singles match in four years is not going to contend at Wimbledon. The game has moved. The young players hit harder and cover more court than even the previous generation. But Serena Williams on grass, even at 44 and rusty and even in doubles — will be the most-watched person at Queen’s Club. If she gets a Wimbledon wildcard and plays a round or two in singles, it will be the biggest tennis story of the summer.
Is this a limited comeback or the beginning of a full return? Nobody knows,. She’s said “this next chapter,” not “one last appearance.” That’s intentional. Watch the Queen’s draw carefully and Wimbledon’s wildcard announcements even more so.
The greatest women’s tennis player ever might not be finished yet.
Now, on to links!
This Week in Women’s Tennis
Larry King, the former husband of Billie Jean King and a factor in creating the WTA, passed away this past week at the age of 81:
I really loved this piece about the WTA creating their fertility program, helping extend many players’ careers.
From sabbaticals to overcoming humble starts, Roland Garros has reignited a fire for players.
Unfortunately, Hailey Baptiste tore her ACL and meniscus in her second round match, ending her breakout season. She received lots of love and support after announcing it:
There’s also been lots of conversations about the tarps and on-court boards injuring players this past fortnight:
Reigning champion Tatjana Maria won’t receive a main draw wildcard next week in Queen’s Club contradicting them doing it for Feliciano Lopez in 2018.
There could be some rumblings in the future with the ITF and WTA:
In college tennis news, the ITA announced their All-Americans for the season and there’s a small update in Reese Brantmeier and Maya Joint’s lawsuit against the NCAA. The USTA also shared the players competing for U.S. Open wildcards in their annual playoff:
Something to keep tabs on during Serena Williams’ comeback: GLP-1s in professional sports.
Moldova opened their new national training center with Simona Halep participating in festivities.
Tweet of the Week
I admit, I cackled hard at this:
Five at The IX: Roland Garros Week 1
“My boyfriend is my coach, and he told me if I break through [the] Top 50, he’ll propose. He’s getting scared now.” – Yuliia Starodubtseva on her coach/boyfriend Pearse Dolan potentially popping the question soon. Starodubtseva came into the tournament ranked No. 55, and picked up the biggest win of her WTA Tour Driven by Mercedes-Benz career over second-seeded Rybakina.
“Everything is starstruck here. It’s starstruck to be here, right? Maybe one day I’ll wake up and it will all sink in.” – Iva Jovic , still 18, on the magnitude of playing the French Open.
“I’m sharing the truth. I’m sharing the facts. This is my life and this is my story.” – Oleksandra Oliynykova on her openness and honesty about the dire situation in her native Ukraine.
“I had a lot of pressure. I felt like I had to win because my parents [gave] everything. But at least I did it. I’m a really big fighter. Maybe that’s the reason why I’m still fighting today like that.” – Tamara Korpatsch on what it meant to her to advance to the third round of a major for the first time. The German explained that when she was young, due to a lack of funds and resources, she and her family had to sleep in their car when traveling to ITF tournaments.
“Then I was upset because I’ve been getting Joe & the Juice every day. So I was a bit upset because my juice spilled. I didn’t have my complete breakfast like I wanted to.” – Coco Gauff on the minor car accident she was in prior to her first-round match. Thankfully, no one was injured, and she was able to laugh about it.
Soccer: Annie Peterson, @AnnieMPeterson, AP Women’s Soccer
Tennis: Joey Dillon, @JoeyDillon, Freelance Tennis Writer
Basketball: Howard Megdal, @HowardMegdal, The IX Sports
Softball: Maren Angus-Coombs, @Maren-Angus, Softball on SI
Golf: Marin Dremock, @MDremock, The IX Sports
Hockey: @TheIceGarden, The Ice Garden
Gymnastics: Jessica Taylor Price, @jesstaylorprice, Freelance Writer
