Howdy, y’all and Happy Tennis Tuesday! The BNP Paribas Open wrapped up Sunday with the best match of the year between No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and No. 3 Elena Rybakina. Fitting this came exactly ten years after the women’s final was overshadowed by sexist comments.
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Sabalenka had lost in the Indian Wells final in 2023. She lost there again in 2025. She’d also dropped the 2025 WTA Finals and this year’s Australian Open — four straight WTA Tour final losses to Rybakina. So when Rybakina had a championship point on Sunday, the pattern felt like it was about to close in on her again.
It didn’t.
Sabalenka saved that match point — returning a 121 mph serve and punching a backhand crosscourt winner — and closed out Rybakina 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(6) to finally take the Indian Wells title. The match lasted more than two and a half hours and this wasn’t a Sabalenka cruise but a grind. Somehow, the Belarussian was the one who ground it out. The statistics were close throughout — Sabalenka finished with 10 aces to Rybakina’s 12, and both players held 80% of their service games. They joke that tennis is a game of margins, but the trophy came down to a single backhand.
Now, the Sunshine Double is at the halfway mark and main draw play begins today at the Miami Open. Were you able to catch your breath?
The draw was released after wildcards were given to players like former champions Venus Williams and Sloane Stephens. For some first round matchups (without qualifiers and lucky losers put in) to watch over the next couple of days:
- (WC) Sloane Stephens vs. (WC) Jennifer Brady: Both are coming off of long injury layoffs, including a multi-year one for Brady. This is a massive opportunity for both players to claim their first WTA main draw back and the ranking points that help.
- Dayana Yastremska vs. Ashlyn Krueger: a fun matchup beween two big-hitters. My kind of match.
- Hailey Baptiste vs. Tatjana Maria: two crafty shotmakers if you’re looking for variety. Baptiste is finding some great form this year and took Rybakina to three last week.
- (WC) Venus Williams vs. Francesca Jones: The legend hasn’t gotten a win since her comeback in July, but the home crowd and humidity might steer her over the Brit.
- Zhang Shuai vs. Sorana Cirstea: Another all-veteran matchup between two agressive players. Cirstea finding some career-best form on her farwell tour, too.
Last year, Sabalenka defeated Jessica Pegula to take the title and of course, she’s the big favorite. She’s reached the final in Indian Wells and then rebounded well in Miami, but I’m very curious if winning the title and what comes with that will add any fatigue to the top seed.
The bracket gives her room, but not a free pass. Madison Keys could show up in the fourth round, with Jasmine Paolini or Elina Svitolina as potential quarterfinal opponents. Rybakina is on the same side of the draw and a realistic semifinal opponent— which, after Sunday, is a matchup neither player will take lightly. The bottom half is pretty wide open, in my opinion. Iga Swiatek is coming in off a tough Indian Wells to Svitolina and Coco Gauff’s arm injury is a storyline to look out for as she is a local to the Delray area and will have overwhelming support.
If seeds hold up, here are your Sweet Sixteen:
(1) Aryna Sabalenka vs. (15) Madison Keys
(7) Jasmine Paolini vs. (9) Elina Svitolina
(3) Elena Rybakina vs. (16) Naomi Osaka
(5) Jessica Pegula vs. (11) Ekaterina Alexandrova
(6) Amanda Anisimova vs. (12) Belinda Bencic
(4) Coco Gauff vs. (14) Linda Noskova
(8) Mirra Andreeva vs. (10) Victoria Mboko
(2) Iga Swiatek vs. (13) Karolina Muchova
Like any hardcourt tournament, it’s so tough to bet against Sabalenka. She and Rybakina are the heavy favorites to emerge with the title, but Swiatek has also won here in the past so she’s not one to erase just yet. The courts in Miami are a bit faster than the ones in Indian Wells, so not only should you expect upsets but see the more aggressive players and big servers to take advantage in South Florida.
Now, on to links!
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This Week in Women’s Tennis
Taylor Townsend and Katerina Siniakova took the BNP Paribas Open doubles title, which so happened to fall on Townsend’s son’s birthday:
Every tournament tries to give the players the best perks and Indian Wells is no different.
What a breakthrough for Talia Gibson, who qualified and made the Indian Wells quarterfinals. The Aussie has a tough turnaround but won her qualifying opener in Miami. Could she do it again?
2019 NCAA singles champion Arianne Hortono retired following a career that included 3 singles and 21 doubles ITF World Tour titles. She qualified for two Australian Opens and also won a round in doubles at Wimbledon in 2022. Her career-high rankings were No. 135 in singles and No. 123 in doubles.
Though currently on the sidelines due to pregnancy and then maternity leave, Ons Jabeur launched her new YouTube channel with a series named “Her Game, Her Rules:”
The Billie Jean King Cup qualifiers will be April 10-11 and Elina Svitolina, Victoria Mboko and Jasmine Paolini are among the players that will be representing their country
Even though Naomi Osaka left Evolve, the agency she co-created that also signed Aryna Sabalenka, there’s no love lost.
The Upper Australia Ladies Linz Open announced their field that includes Karolina Pliskova, Ekaterina Alexandrova and Alexandra Eala.
The INTENNSE pro tennis league had their first-ever draft with dozens of players getting picked for teams.
Tweet of the Week
I love that Miyu Kato is using the World Baseball Classic to her advantage and hope the Japanese baseball fans pack the stands:
“Becoming Caitlin Clark” is out now!
Howard Megdal’s newest book is here! “Becoming Caitlin Clark: The Unknown Origin Story of a Modern Basketball Superstar” captures both the historic nature of Clark’s rise and the critical context over the previous century that helped make it possible, including interviews with Clark, Lisa Bluder (who also wrote the foreword), C. Vivian Stringer, Jan Jensen, Molly Kazmer and many others.
Five at The IX: Indian Wells Week 2
Q. Congratulations for everything that happened during this week. You are No. 1, 22 titles before this one, but you were so stressed during the final. Was it because of her, because of you, because of the tournament?
ARYNA SABALENKA: Well, as I said before going to this final, I am so tired of losing these big finals. I mean, don’t get me wrong, players were playing incredible tennis, but still I managed to fight through and to get my opportunity, and I didn’t use it so many times.
So in this final, the way I started the first set and then the first game of the second set, I was really not happy with that, and I was just trying to find something, find a way to get this win for myself, to feel more confident going into the next final. So I guess that’s why.
Q. When you know a player as well as you know Aryna, you have played so many times, you know her off the court, as well, how do you try and formulate a game plan? Because you know exactly what she’s going to try and do, and you know that she knows what you’re going to try and do. How do you go into a match like that?
ELENA RYBAKINA: Well, we have a team which prepares us for different scenarios of the match. And of course we know our strengths and sometimes even knowing where she serves. So I know if it’s a fast serve, even if you put the racquet doesn’t mean that you can really put it back in, because it’s, like, very strong serves.
So we both trying to change some things, and in the important moments, I think the difference is of this extra energy, extra push, and for me I had the one match point and she returned pretty well, so it’s tough to say.
But from my side, I could say that I should have done better in the second set, somehow find this energy maybe, or I don’t know. But I can say that I did everything possible, but still, if you have this little difference, and I had a match point, so I could have done better in the end.
Q. I wanted to ask about the match, actually, a little bit. There were some tight moments. You guys were down 4-2 in the breaker, came up with five straight points, and then they broke you back. It was close again in the second set. So is that your guys’ signature, being able to lift each other up when there is difficulties?
TAYLOR TOWNSEND: I mean, I wouldn’t call it a signature. I just think that it’s part of being a team. You know, if we didn’t do it, it would be very obvious what would happen. Doubles is being able to work together through, you know, the good and the bad things.
You know, it’s very many times that we have played where one is on, the other one is off, and vice versa. Or there are some things that are on and there are some things that are off, and you have to figure that stuff out that day. But that’s not just doubles, it’s tennis, period.
It’s constantly adjusting and having to figure out how to play your best tennis on that day. That can look different from match to match.
So we felt like we were in control of the points, and that we were kind of losing them on our terms. So we just tried to keep going for our shots and doing the right things and setting up the points the right way. That’s the only thing you can do.
I mean, in doubles where there is another person there, if you don’t hit your spot, like Kat said, there’s someone there. So you need to be accurate. There are some times where you do it and some times that we don’t.
Ultimately, I was really proud of the way that we were able to kind of bear down in those moments. And then towards the end, especially in the last game, we said, Okay, we’re going to go for it, we’re going to play to win. We’re not just gonna play to put the ball in, we’re going to play to win.
That last game is probably the best return game we had in the entire match. We got back on the saddle after getting broken. You know, we just went back for it.
Yeah, I have been in that position a lot of times against Kat where, you know, she’s down, and then things just start happening, so I’m really happy to be on the same side of the net as her (smiling).
Q. Reflecting back, you were speaking about your offseason, working on small details of your game, would you say it’s kind of the same trend that you’ve had building in the last couple of years, like looking for ways to be more aggressive? Is that what most of the stuff has been about for you? What is the process like? How do you originate these conversations? Does your coach just bring you videos and bring you new ideas and then you consider them, or is it just stuff you know is happening that you’re thinking about already?
ELINA SVITOLINA: No, my coach is bringing me the videos and the content from matches and working also with the statistics team that bringing, you know, the content. Then we go together through, you know, things that we see that is highlighted.
And for me, yeah, it’s important to find, you know, the small edges where I can improve my game. Because obviously, you know, I’m playing good, but, you know, I want to be even more consistent. I want to win, you know, easier also the matches sometimes.
Yeah, it’s those small edges that you want to, you know, to get better at. Yeah, it’s one of the things that we worked on. Yeah, I feel like it’s helped me to see a little bit my game a bit different. Yeah, just clicked, a few things.
But, I mean, I didn’t start the year, I would say, at my very best at the beginning. I mean, I worked my way in and playing in Auckland, trying to get a few matches here and there, because I didn’t play for, like, three months since I finished the year in September.
Yeah, I think it’s just came together slowly, and yeah, here we have the results. Yeah, I want to push more, I want to go for even better.
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Mondays: Soccer
By: Annie Peterson, @AnnieMPeterson, AP Women’s Soccer
Tuesdays: Tennis
By: Joey Dillon, @JoeyDillon, Freelance Tennis Writer
Wednesdays: Basketball
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