Howdy, y’all and Happy Tennis Tuesday! The BNP Paribas Open has reached the round of 16 in the women’s draw, and if the first week in the desert was any indication, Tuesday’s slate is going to be must-watch tennis. With defending champion Mirra Andreeva knocked out early and Coco Gauff retiring for only the second time in her career, the quarterfinal bracket is wide open.
Our Sweet Sixteen lineup is as follows:
(1) Aryna Sabalenka vs. (16) Naomi Osaka
(10) Victoria Mboko vs. (6) Amanda Anisimova
(21) Alexandra Eala vs. (14) Linda Noskova
(Q) Talia Gibson vs. (7) Jasmine Paolini
(5) Jessica Pegula vs. (10) Belinda Benic
Sonay Kartal vs. (3) Elena Rybakina
Katerina Siniakova vs. (9) Elina Svitolina
(13) Karolina Muchova vs. (2) Iga Swiatek
Here’s a few matchups to grab some popcorn for:
The Headliner: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs. (16) Naomi Osaka
This potential matchup jumped off the draw sheet before the tournament even began and I’m pumped it’s here. Sabalenka is chasing her first Indian Wells title after coming up empty twice in the final, while Osaka won the whole thing back in 2018. In fact, their only meeting came that same year with Osaka winning a thriller on her way to her first US Open crown. Sabalenka has been impressive this week, belting 23 winners in a clinical win over Jaqueline Cristian, while Osaka bounced back from dropping a set against Camila Osorio to win 6-1, 3-6, 6-1. Sabalenka is the heavy favorite, but Osaka has history on her side and an audience that will be firmly behind her. Though, I still think we’ll see Sabalenka take the match in straight sets.
The Storyline: (21) Alexandra Eala vs. (14) Linda Noskova
Eala, 20 and a graduate of Rafael Nadal’s academy in Spain, is the first player from the Philippines to reach the Indian Wells round of 16, and she’ll already be ranked a career-high next week regardless of what happens Tuesday. Her path here has been nothing short of dramatic: a near-midnight comeback win over Yastremska in the second round, followed by a match against Coco Gauff that ended abruptly when Gauff retired with a painful left arm injury. Remarkably, Eala now holds a 3-3 record against Top 5 players, with wins over Madison Keys, Iga Swiatek, and now Gauff. Noskova, 21 and another gifted Czech talent, won’t be intimidated — but the crowd will be firmly in Eala’s corner as the Filipino continues her debut in the desert. I’ll take Eala for the win, though my gut says three sets.
The Veterans’ Battle: Katerina Siniakova vs. (9) Elina Svitolina
Siniakova rallied past defending champion Andreeva in a grueling 2 hour, 48 minute contest to reach the round of 16 for the first time at Indian Wells. However, the Czech is carrying serious mileage on her legs with a three-and-a-half hour win beforehand over Leylah Fernandez (on top of doubles). Svitolina is experienced, steady, and exactly the kind of opponent who can expose fatigue. This one could be a grinder since the Indian Wells courts can be annoyingly slow, but Svitolina is in too good of form to not take the win in straight sets.
The Shotmaker’s Duel: (13) Karolina Muchova vs. (2) Iga Swiatek
On paper, this looks like a comfortable assignment for Swiatek. The two have met five times, with Swiatek leading the head-to-head 4-1 and the lone Muchova win came on clay at the 2023 French Open. The last time these two met on hard courts at Indian Wells, in this very same round last year, Swiatek was merciless, winning 6-1, 6-1. However, context matters, and Muchova’s won her last eight matches and carries a 9-1 record over her past ten outings. She’s one of those rare players whose game has the ingredients to genuinely trouble Swiatek: the slice, the drop shot, the ability to redirect pace and change the tempo of a rally in ways that pure baseliners simply can’t. Though she’s healthy and locked in, Swiatek is a two-time champion in Indian Wells and simply a force on these courts. Take her in two sets, here.
We’ll see how week two unfolds on the West Coast, but I’m still taking Aryna Sabalenka to win her first BNP Paribas Open. On to links!
This Week in Women’s Tennis
The WTA held their annual Annalee Thurston Award Reception, where multiple honorees were admired including Tracy Austin:
Congratulations to Aryna Sabalenka, who showed off her new dog, Ash, as well as getting engaged this past week in Indian Wells. Her diamond ring is safe for play:
Victoria Mboko and Alexandra Eala are continuing their meteoric rises in the Top 40 with impressive Indian Wells debuts.
Bianca Andreescu says she’s in her seventh version of her career as she continues to rise back up the ranks following injury and burnout.
Serena Williams, whose sister Venus is mum about the GOAT coming back, received the Barbie treatment for International Women’s Day.
Reese Brantemeier was announced as this year’s recipient of the Hurd Award, a $100,000 grant given to a collegiate player about to break onto the professional tennis tour. Anne-Christine Lutkemeyer was named a finalist and will receive $40,000.
Zheng Qinwen has added Marcos Baghdatis as a coaching member of her team, joining Pere Riba.
Speaking of coaches, Wim Fissette (Iga Swiatek) and Tom Gutteridge (Iva Jovic) opened up about about the processes to building their players.
I’m a massive fan and wearer of Lululemon’s tennis-specific line and am all for their jump into the sport and BNP Paribas Open.
In his new role as USTA CEO, Craig Tiley is aiming for 35 million Americans to be playing tennis by 2035.
Among the players coming to Charleston next month is Jessica Pegula, who’s aiming to repeat as Credit One Charleston Open champion.
Tweet of the Week
Panna Udvardy gave perhaps the scariest example of how bettors and other figures in tennis are threatening players just after Lucrezia Stefanini spoke out. The WTA shared that there was no data breach even though the Hungarian was reached out to her personal number:
Five at The IX: Indian Wells Week 1
Q. Can I ask about the architecture council and what the main things are you want to get out of that?
JESSICA PEGULA: Yeah, I mean, the goal is to try and prioritize the schedule in the calendar for next year. As soon as next year, hopefully.
I think our goal is just to problem-solve and to try and figure out some ways to do it. I think Valerie has done a really good job as far as just getting tons of feedback from a lot of players, us included. And just kind of throwing a lot of ideas and seeing where there are some areas where we can quickly change.
I think that’s something that within the WTA we have had to get better at is changing things quicker and not taking years and years for things to kind of evolve.
So she’s really shown that initiative very quickly just by forming the architecture council. And I think also it kind of shows that she wants to make change because I think she’s putting it out there, putting pressure on herself, like, hey, I have made this council, this is priority, this is our goal, if we don’t get this done, it doesn’t necessarily look great.
So I actually kind of like that she’s been very out front with it, just, hey, this is what we’re going to do, this is our goal. We’re getting asked about it a ton in press, and we’re going to try and hopefully make some changes to make everyone’s lives a little bit easier, I think, hopefully by next year in the calendar.
Q. Emma Raducanu was speaking about the potential for having some time where she doesn’t have a coach. Can you imagine ever having a period where you don’t have a coach there or what that would look like?
ARYNA SABALENKA: Yeah, I’m ready to fire all of them right now. (Laughter.)
No, I think for me personally it would be tough. I think even though I’m mentally tough and strong, for me it’s important to feel the support and to see my team in the box and just have my people around.
So for me, I mean, right now I don’t see myself being without the coach. And even though I’m, like, smart and I know tennis, I kind of like know everything, but at the same time, I don’t like to go in the practice and do the whole practice myself. It just takes too much of an energy.
I just need the coach to schedule the practice, to make me do stuff and just so the only thing I’m worried about is my tennis, not like which exercise should I do today? What should I work on today?
For me, it would be difficult. But I feel like she been struggling a lot with finding the right coach, the right fit for her. I think maybe for her it’s good to take this little break, not rushing, like, bringing just anyone in her team. That just makes more problem, I feel like, and insecureness, you don’t have your person around.
I feel like maybe for her it’s a good decision, but I feel like she’s going to obviously end up having coach. I think she just need to choose carefully the person that she’s gonna bring on her team.
Q. Women athletes have historically had a lot of social trouble with gender expression, being deemed too masculine, and if they’re too feminine, it’s almost demeaning. I wonder now that ATP is doing these athlete arrivals with all the fashion, do you think if the WTA did something like that for the women, is there a risk it would be seen as frivolous, take away from the athleticism, or are we at a good place that you can publicly be both to a global audience?
COCO GAUFF: Yeah, I think there is nothing that an athlete can really do to take away from the athleticism that they have. How we perform on court — or what we do off court has nothing to do with how we perform on court. I haven’t seen the ATP arrival thing, so I guess I need to look at that, see what outfits the guys are putting out.
No, I think it’s a great thing. There was a little thing, WTA did it, was it last year or two years ago, Cincinnati, a couple players participated in that, and I thought that was really cool.
I enjoyed doing that. I know with every match it might be pretty hard, but I think definitely at least for press day it can be something that we can elevate a little bit more and make it more fun.
No, I don’t think it will take away that. There is always going to be people that tell women to focus on the court, not focus on yourself, blah, blah, blah. I think that’s what’s the beautiful thing about being also a female athlete is that you can express yourself in so many ways.
Just being a woman in general around the world I think there is a lot of ways you can express yourself. Yeah, I hope we can showcase that more, because there’s a lot of girls on tour who dress nice off the court, but we just don’t always have the time to show it.
Q. This hasn’t always been your best tournament in terms of suitability. I’m wondering, now that you have been on tour a few years, how you see an evolution in your game or other players’ games in terms of surface and court adaptability. Like I’m thinking Maria Sharapova winning her final two slams at the French Open would have been unlikely at the start of her career. Do you see yourself evolving and what works for you?
AMANDA ANISIMOVA: Yeah, I think it’s just a matter of adapting. I think I’m a player who can play well on all surfaces as long as I pull all the things together for myself.
Like you said, I kind of have a love/hate relationship with the courts here. I had a great run when I was 16 and played well and really found my rhythm that year and was playing really well and felt really comfortable.
There were other times with the conditions, with the wind here it can get difficult. I mean, I haven’t played this tournament that many times, and I feel like with each year that I play, I kind of learn something about how I can adapt better, how I can ease my game to my advantage. I’m someone who likes to play on slow courts, as well, so I feel like this tournament can actually suit me very well.
Yeah, today was a big confidence booster, in a way. I was able to figure it out and kind of adjust to the courts. So hopefully I can build off of that. I’m a player who likes to gain momentum throughout the tournament, so I’m hoping that that will be the case for the week.
Yeah, I love this tournament. Hoping for a longer stay this time, but yeah, just enjoying every single day. Yeah, as you said with the clay courts, I think some players are just able to play on all surfaces, and I’m hoping to be a player that can do that.
Q. You have introduced a lot of people to the sport of tennis and coming to tournaments. What do you think tournaments can do to help sort of encourage new fans who are coming into a sport that they might not know about but are sort of interested in a specific player and want to sort of learn more about the sport?
ALEXANDRA EALA: Well, I love that they’re — you know, it’s not just myself that have been bringing in different and new demographics into the audience and to the sport.
Personally, I think one of the ways, I’m not saying that I know everything, but I think one of the ways is for the tennis community in general to develop in certain countries where tennis is not as big as other sports, I would say.
So speaking from my experience, tennis has grown so much in my country, right, and I think that that really adds to the fact that they come and they support me, because tennis is so popular now. So people are developing genuine interest in the sport.
Another example of what I’m saying is in Australian Open, there were four women from Southeast Asia in the main draw, so that attracted — so it was Lanlana, Mai, Janice, and myself, so that attracted another demographic that maybe was not so present in other years. Or another example is my friend Zeynep, she’s from Turkey, she’s been pulling in a lot of Turkish people and from the Middle East.
So I think if tennis is able to develop in those countries, it will naturally grow the sport and naturally produce high-level competitors. That’s my opinion.
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