At the other end of the spectrum of the Vancouver Goldeneyes and Seattle Torrent are the Boston Fleet, Minnesota Frost, and Montréal Victoire. They all appear well on their way to securing a playoff spot. All three teams are currently rocking a +0.600 PTS%. Going by the theoretical 45-point entry into the playoffs, Minnesota and Montréal are currently nine points away, while Boston is six points off. With 11 games remaining between the three, Montréal and Minnesota most likely need three regulation wins. Boston needs just two.
The Boston Fleet
There’s only been two seasons, but it’d be an unprecedented collapse by a team to not get those few wins to secure their spot. The closest situation we’ve had is Boston last season. They won four of their last 11 games, three in regulation and one in overtime. That’s far above the bar we see for these three top teams right now. This is hockey, though, and sometimes the nearly impossible happens. Maybe it won’t this season, but you can bet in the future there will be a team in Minnesota, Montréal, or Boston’s position that suddenly finds themselves out of the playoffs.
Boston has a very low bar of likely just needing two regulation wins to make the playoffs. With how they’ve been playing so far, it’s extremely hard to imagine that Boston falls out of the race. I’m not the biggest fan of them choosing to play coin flip hockey, but they’ve built up such a lead on the rest of the league and the coin flip has gone their way so many times that they could collapse into the playoffs. With Aerin Frankel and arguably the league’s best defensive team, you’re going to accidentally win a few games even if your PDO of 102.8 starts to regress to a more normal level.
The Minnesota Frost
Where it gets interesting is with Montréal and Minnesota. Both teams have 36 points in 19 games. Both have the small task of getting nine points in their remaining 11 games. They could lose nine games in OT and probably still make it into the playoffs, so once again the odds they fall out are quite small. That doesn’t mean it can’t happen, and there are some yellow flags that indicate it is possible.
Minnesota has been by far and away the best offensive team in the league, at least in terms of results. They’re the only team to hit the +3.00 goals for per 60 mark. Plus, they’re the only team to hit the +2.00 even-strength goals for per game mark. They also hold the third best power play efficiency rate at 19.61%. They’re getting goals all over the place. Even if you take away their seven empty net goals, they’re the only team to hit the 50-goals for mark.
In a league where goaltending is above the league average SV% from the 2024 inaugural season, currently a 0.924 league average SV% up from 0.921 in 2024, Minnesota is shooting at an astonishing 10.69%. Not even Toronto in 2024 finished with a +10% shooting%, despite pumping up their goal total with seven empty net goals. Maybe Minnesota just doesn’t stop being a shooting heater. One could propose they’re getting into the scoring areas in a way that would make their current SH% sustainable. Compared to the New York Sirens, they are very similar shot charts. Plus, Minnesota has scored 12 more goals in one fewer game.
That’s an indication that Minnesota should expect a scoring drop, especially while also posting a 103.3 PDO. Nothing says “regression imminent” more than a PDO above a 101, especially to the degree that Minnesota is at. Should their scoring regress as expected, they have a cushion to prevent a complete freefall. Still, they’d need to keep the regression to normal amounts. They do that through being better defensively. If they can’t, then Nicole Hensley and Maddie Rooney have to step up in a big way. This last stretch, we’ll see if Minnesota’s goaltending can carry them the rest of the way to a playoff spot.
The Montréal Victoire
For Montréal this all hinges on Marie-Philip Poulin — specifically, her health. Montréal’s PDO is on the upper edge of probable negative regression coming at 101.5, though it shouldn’t be a sharp drop. It’s concerning that Poulin is their number one center, best goal scorer, best offensive driver, best playmaker, and best two-way player. No one that can replace her, and their offence is showing some concern as-is. They sit third in GF/60, which is great. However, they sit sixth in EVGF/GP. Their 24% PP is putting in a lot of work to make up for the lack of even-strength scoring.
I know that Abby Roque is having a very productive season with six goals and 15 points on the year. She’s been a great offensive compliment to Poulin and Laura Stacey. The problem that Montréal would face without Poulin is that Roque is not a PWHL-winning caliber center. There’s a reason she went to Montréal and has only been a winger. She doesn’t have the footspeed or ability to be a two-way presence you need from a top six center. She couldn’t do that as the number two center in New York for two seasons.
What should calm down Montréal fans is that even if they lose Marie-Philip Poulin, they’re far and away the best shot share team at even-strength with a 56.98% even-strength shots for%. Next closest in New York at 51.93%. Ann-Renée Desbiens further cements Montreal’s place in the playoffs. She’s been the best goalie in the PWHL this season, or at least a top two goalie alongside Aerin Frankel. If Montréal has to do the Boston thing of playing coin flip hockey, they do have the goalie to accidentally win enough games to put them into the playoffs.