Despite a wildly entertaining Saturday of conference tournament action, the results didn’t have a major impact on the projected bracket. We also had our first official ticket punched with Western Illinois winning the Ohio Valley Conference. The outcomes of Sunday’s championships could shape the bracket, but a game outside the conference tournament actually caused some movement in the projected field of 68.
We will start at the top and work through some of the key points that led to the shape of this bracket:
Three of the four No. 1 seeds all won on Saturday, but one will have to lose on Sunday as Texas and South Carolina face off for the SEC tournament crown. A win for Texas moves them ahead of South Carolina for the third overall seed. A heavy Longhorns loss and an Iowa defeat of UCLA could move the Hawkeyes into the final No. 1 seed.
The top 16 didn’t change from Saturday’s action, but like the No. 1 seeds, we could see some changes after Sunday. If West Virginia wins the Big 12, it will grab the last No. 4 seed and a hosting spot. If TCU wins, it will move up to a No. 2 seed. The ACC championship result will also cause some movement in the top 16, with both participants as projected No. 3 seeds.
Welcome to the projected field of 68 Arizona State. Thanks to Columbia’s loss to Harvard, the Sun Devils move into the field to replace Columbia, which is no longer considered the Ivy League’s automatic qualifier. Today is big for the bubble with both the Summit and Atlantic 10 championship games, as one or both leagues could create bid stealers.
The biggest beneficiaries of Saturday’s results were TCU, West Virginia, and Arizona State. The Horned Frogs and Mountaineers both have an opportunity to move up a seed line with a Big 12 championship, and the Sun Devils are now projected in the tournament field with Columbia’s loss.
Sunday’s games with the greatest impact on the bracket:
- Duke vs Louisville – ACC Championship
- UCLA vs Iowa – Big 10 Championship
- South Carolina vs Texas – SEC Championship
- TCU vs West Virginia – Big 12 Championship
- Rhode Island vs George Mason – Atlantic 10 Championship
- North Dakota State vs South Dakota State – Summit League Championship
- Chattanooga vs Samford – Southern Conference Championship
- High Point vs Radford – Big South Championship
Bracketology methodology
Here are some basic bracket rules that help influence my bracket:
- The top four seed lines in each region shall be from different conferences unless a conference has more than four teams in the top 16 (making this rule impossible to follow, as is the case with the SEC and Big 10 in my bracket).
- Teams from the same conference shall not be projected to meet until the Elite Eight if they met three times during the regular season, or the Sweet 16 if they met twice. Because we don’t know what will happen in conference tournaments, I am assuming every conference team will face each other one more time than what is on their schedule. I was able to keep conference teams apart until the Elite Eight.
- In order to comply with bracket rules, it is acceptable to move a team up or down one seed line. I did not have to do that with this bracket.
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Bracket breakdown
Multi-Bid conferences
- Big Ten: 12
- SEC: 10
- ACC: 9
- Big 12: 8
- Big East: 2
- MAAC: 2
Last four in:
- Fairfield
- Virginia
- Nebraska
- Arizona State
First four out:
- Richmond
- BYU
- South Dakota State
- Utah
Next four out:
- Mississippi State
- Stanford
- Kansas State
- Indiana
Next Update: March 9th
