As quickly as they started, the Power Four conference tournaments are now over, and they were filled with drama down to the very end. In total on Sunday, eight teams punched their tickets to the 2026 NCAA tournament. From now until Selection Sunday, the bracket won’t change much. A few mid-major tournaments could impact the bubble, but the picture has gotten very clear for the field of 68.
Let’s start at the top and work through some of the key points that led to the shape of this bracket.
We had a change in the order of our No. 1 seeds as Texas moved past South Carolina with their win over the Gamecocks in the SEC championship. The Longhorns took the rubber match and should now get to play in the state of Texas for the first two weeks of the tournament.
Morgantown will see first and second-round action. The Mountaineers’ win in the Big 12 Championship garners them a hosting spot and pushes Minnesota down to a No. 5 seed. Also, while Duke won the ACC tournament, they remain a No. 3 seed. The number of losses they have, including a Quad 2 loss, keeps them from passing Michigan.
The bubble has a new member as South Dakota State’s win in the Summit League championship sees them switch places with conference foe North Dakota State. The Bison become one of the first four out. Tomorrow’s MAAC title game will have a serious impact on the bubble.
The biggest beneficiaries of Sunday’s results were West Virginia, Texas and South Dakota State. The Mountaineers get to host, the Longhorns get to stay in the state of Texas for two weeks and the Jackrabbits are in the field of 68.
Monday’s Games with the greatest impact on the bracket
- UConn v. Villanova, BIG EAST Championship
- Quinnipiac v. Fairfield, MAAC Championship
- Troy v. James Madison, Sun Belt Championship
- Jacksonville v. Austin Peay, ASUN Championship
Bracketology methodology
Here are some basic bracket rules that help influence my bracket:
- The top four seed lines in each region shall be from different conferences unless a conference has more than four teams in the top 16 (making this rule impossible to follow, as is the case with the SEC and Big 10 in my bracket).
- Teams from the same conference shall not be projected to meet until the Elite Eight if they met three times during the regular season or the Sweet 16 if they met twice. Because we don’t know what will happen in conference tournaments, I am assuming every conference team will face each other one more time than what is on their schedule. I was able to keep conference teams apart until the Elite Eight.
- In order to comply with bracket rules, it is acceptable to move a team up or down one seed line. I did not have to do that with this bracket.
Bracket breakdown
Multi-Bid conferences:
- Big Ten: 12
- SEC: 10
- ACC: 9
- Big 12: 8
- BIG EAST: 2
- MAAC: 2
Last four in:
- Fairfield
- Virginia
- Nebraska
- Arizona State
First four out:
- Richmond
- BYU
- North Dakota State
- Utah
Next four out:
- Mississippi State
- Stanford
- Kansas State
- Indiana
Next Update: March 10
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