It’s up to each individual to decide on how to break up the WNBA season into parts.
It can be 44 individual games that carry the same weight. Or maybe two 22-game parts. Universally, it’s looked at through the lens of a pre- and post-All-Star break as two halves.
For the Dream, it’s not only about playing a full 40 minutes in a game, a phrase that is preached to every player from Karl Smesko, but a full 44 games over the course of a season – no matter how you cut it.
“The second quarter of the season is like the hardest, right before you go into All-Star, because it leaves you a feel of what it’s going to feel like after that, because a lot of teams relax, they get comfortable,” Angel Reese said during the Dream’s five-game losing streak. “It’s not supposed to be easy. Championship culture is not supposed to be easy.”
It won’t be easy, and make no mistake about it – the expectations haven’t changed for the Dream, who were one of the early-season favorites to make – and win – the WNBA Finals.
For the Dream, who were winners of four of their last five games entering the All-Star break, they still want to reach that goal. Before that can happen, though, they have to get through the unofficial second half of the season.
Here are five things to keep an eye on during the stretch run for the team.
Implementing Brionna Jones into the mix
Brionna Jones returned to the Dream two games before the All-Star break. A source close to the situation told The IX Sports that she would be playing around 15 minutes upon her return with a gradual ramp-up.
The team has stuck true to its word, as Jones has played just over 15 minutes per game in her first two games back, plus 21:04 in Wednesday’s comeback win in Dallas.
If you ask Smesko, he has four top-10 players in the league on his team – one of those being Jones.
“She’s just such a smart player. She just understands spacing and where to move to help everybody function. She set good screens,” Smesko said about Jones after she made her season debut. “She has played great for somebody who hasn’t played all season for that to be the first time you go out there. I thought that she was moving really well, and I thought she played a great game.”
One area where Smesko is looking to implement Jones in is with Reese. While Jones has been out, Reese has been playing center, a position she hasn’t consistently played since her time at LSU.
Smesko mentioned that he wanted to add in some wrinkles with Jones returning, and we saw a glimpse of it against the Chicago Sky.
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There was a play to start the second quarter where Jordin Canada brought the ball up for the Dream. Jones was serving as her trailer, before entering the paint to set a down-screen for Reese.
The Sky switched, putting Azurá Stevens on Reese as Jones immediately sealed Kamilla Cardoso down low. Reese made the entry pass immediately in a drawn-up play for Jones.
The Dream already have plays and motions drawn up for Jones, as Smesko alluded to to The IX Sports ahead of Wednesday’s game. However, with Jones and Reese playing together for the first time, he also said that there are more that could be added into the offense.
It’s those wrinkles that the Dream are going to implement in the second half as Jones gets her legs back under her and eventually returns to the starting lineup.
While the offense will be big, it’ll be her defensive presence as a rim protector that will be the most valuable for the team down the stretch.
“Having Bri back out on the floor, having another vet out there, and just the experience that she has, she brings a lot to this team,” Canada told The IX Sports after the team’s win against the Sky. “We know Bri can do it all, especially on the defensive glass.”
Hitting key shots
June 20. Keep that date in mind.
While Smesko is happy with the looks that his team is getting offensively, the Dream aren’t hitting shots at the rate that they are used to. While he’ll – correctly – point out that Dream have the most points in the paint (restricted area, really), the biggest part of the Above the Line (ATL) offensive system that Smesko runs is to take the highest percentage open shot – many of them from three-point range.
Let’s go back to that date. June 20. It’s a big date because it’s the last game in which the Dream made double-digit three-pointers in a game.
“I mean we’re gonna have to shoot the ball better, finish layups better, and shoot the ball better from the perimeter if you want to advance in the playoffs,” Smesko told the media after Wednesday’s game.
For a team that puts a focus on shooting the long ball, they just aren’t hitting the shots, as their 31.1 three-point percentage ranks No. 13 in the league.
“I think we understand that we’ve gone through a little bit of a shooting dip, and that we’re more than capable of hitting some of the higher percentage of the shots that we’re getting,” Smesko told The IX Sports. “So, having a couple days where we can just knock down some shots, build up the confidence again, I think will go a long way.”
Two of the players who have seen their numbers dip the most year over year from behind the arc are Allisha Gray and Naz Hillmon.
“I just don’t think for the quality of shot that we’re getting, we’re not getting the return that we would normally get,” Smesko said. “I think there’s a frustration that builds up. When it happens in one game, that’s one thing, but once it happens a few games, it’s just human nature to be a little bit frustrated by it. You want to, everybody just wants to see the ball in the basket, and as soon as we get off to a good start, and we hit a few threes right away, I think most of these struggles are going to be over.”
Steady bench production
When the Dream brought back their five starters from a season ago and acquired Reese from the Sky, there was one sacrifice that they had to make to make it work with the salary cap – experience on the bench.
It’s been an issue for the Dream at times this year, as the bench production has been hit and miss.
Isobel Borlase has had flashes, including three double-digit scoring outputs and playing in critical moments for the team.
Rookie Madina Okot has been thrust into a large role for the team and has been a per-minute star for them on the offensive side.
Hillmon will be returning to the bench once Jones is healthy.
Te-Hina Paopao – who is dealing with a right-leg injury that will keep her sidelined for the next few weeks – hasn’t taken the next step forward in her development that they have been counting on.
While there are positives listed there, they haven’t been consistent positives.
The bench mob of last year consisted of players like Hillmon, Nia Coffey, Maya Caldwell, and Paopao, and it was one of the more productive bench units in the league.
The experience is gone now, and Smesko has been forced to turn to a group that calls itself the “stay ready squad,” which has a lot of potential, but is very young.
The youth has resulted in Smesko turning to his starters more than he normally would. There are 24 players in the WNBA who average at least 29.9 minutes per game. The Dream’s starters make up five of them.
The Minnesota Lynx, Las Vegas Aces, and Dallas Wings are the only other teams that have three players appear in the top 24.
The trade deadline is this Sunday, and while Smesko and general manager Dan Padover believe in the group that they’ve assembled, the Dream are paying attention to who is available before the deadline, a source within the team told me.
The Dream traded their first-round picks in the next two drafts to acquire Reese, so they’ll have to be creative in any trade situation.
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Defensive development for Madina Okot
Speaking of Okot, she’s exceeded every expectation that the Dream had of her when they drafted her. They knew that she was a green player, but they also knew that they needed her to step up right away to help the team.
Okot ranks No. 12 in PER, a metric that measures the per-minute impact a player has on the court, in the league.
What’s more, among all players in the new WNBA “shot difficulty” metric, Okot ranks No. 1 in the league with an xFG (expected field goal percentage) of 55.1 percent.
Shot difficulty looks at the expected field goal percentage, the field goal percentage that we would expect an average WNBA player to shoot given the player tracking details of each shot taken, accounting for the angle of the shot, proximity of the defender, and more.
“Medina comes in and gives us some great minutes,” Canada told The IX Sports. “So that’s what we need from her anytime she steps out on the floor.”
The one area where Okot needs to improve is on the defensive side of the ball – especially against the pick and roll.
Okot has been a quality defender with a 100.2 defensive player rating (an estimate of how many points the player allowed per 100 possessions they individually faced while on the court), thanks in part to the rim protection that she offers.
But where she’s still susceptible to defensive blunders is when the opposition targets her in the pick-and-roll.
When the Sky came back in the Dream’s most-recent game, Okot was targeted heavily by the opposition when they got into their motions. Okot wasn’t able to recover in time, leading to easy buckets at the rim for the Sky.
Eventually, it led to Smesko making the swap to Jones, who had a big stop at the rim that led to the Dream getting the ball and ultimately winning.
It’s part of developing a player in real time.
“Everybody sees the talent is there. It’s just getting more reps,” Smesko explained. “Some situations she hasn’t been in a lot in her life that she’s now in, and you know, guarding players on the perimeter, and she’s seen a lot of different offensive actions. And maybe she didn’t have to defend as much in college, but you know she’s really good.
“She’s willing to work every day, and you know, I just hope she realizes how good she can be. She just wants to work and get there because the potential is there to be like an All-Star and above player.”
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Naz Hillmon finding her footing off of the bench
When Jones is fully back and off a minutes restriction, Hillmon will reprise her role on the bench that she held for much of last year before she replaced Brittney Griner in the starting lineup.
It’s a role that Hillmon thrived in, as she won the Sixth Player of the Year Award.
This year, it’s been a struggle for Hillmon, as we documented at The IX Sports, due in large part to nagging injuries.
With her returning to the bench, she’ll be able to provide a much-needed spark for the second unit as she’ll still play minutes that mirror a starter’s workload.
With Hillmon’s versatility, it will allow Smesko to look at different combinations to run out Hillmon with Reese, Jones, or Okot playing center.
The question is, with Paopao sidelined, could the Dream roll out a big lineup with Hillmon, Reese, and Jones on the court at the same time?
“I guess anything is possible, but I wouldn’t expect a ton of it,” Smesko said.
It’s the flexibility that the Dream need down the stretch, but it’s something that Hillmon needs, too, if she wants to revert to her 2025 level of production.
