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The U.S. Open, the final Grand Slam of the year, is here and the draw is locked and loaded. The last seven majors have produced seven different women’s champions. Rybakina in Melbourne, a teenager in Paris, a Czech “nobody” had circled going into June at Wimbledon. If you’ve been trying to build a narrative around who “owns” this era of women’s tennis, the sport keeps declining to cooperate, and there’s no reason to think Flushing Meadows breaks that streak just because Aryna Sabalenka’s name is at the top of the draw sheet again.
Play started Sunday, so this isn’t a completely blank-slate preview: Pegula’s already through her opener, Venus Williams was taken out after a wild late-night loss to Sofia Kenin โ but the shape of the next two weeks is worth laying out now, because the draw and the form lines both suggest this one’s wide open.
The No. 1 ranking is basically a side tournament
Sabalenka comes in as the two-time defending champion and still the favorite on paper, but the ranking math is genuinely strange this year. She’s sitting on 8,575 points to Rybakina’s 8,141 (a gap of 434) and because Sabalenka is defending a full title’s worth of points just by showing up, she’s playing with almost no cushion. Rybakina, by contrast, can take over No. 1 simply by reaching the semifinals, regardless of what anyone else in the draw does. She could theoretically even inherit the top spot without winning another match this tournament if Sabalenka, Gauff, and Pegula all fail to lift the trophy. Sabalenka’s only route to staying No. 1 is winning the whole thing and having Rybakina go out before the final four.
That would be a fun subplot on its own, except Rybakina hasn’t practiced much on-site this week after retiring from her Cincinnati quarterfinal against Swiatek with a leg issue. An Achilles problem has reportedly been ruled out, but “managing a recovery” isn’t the ideal way to walk into a Slam where the ranking is on the line.
Meanwhile, Sabalenka’s own form has been shakier than her seeding suggests. She hasn’t reached a final since the Sunshine Double back in March, and she’s landed in arguably the toughest section of the whole draw. Diana Shnaider, who beat her at the French Open in a third-set bagel, is lurking, along with Barbora Krejฤรญkovรก and a red-hot Marta Kostyuk. On paper, it’s Sabalenka to the final. In practice, this is not a group of players anyone wants to see four times in a row on the way there.
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Toronto and Cincinnati champions linger
Iga ลwiฤ tek is a four-time French Open champion but hasn’t really live up to her seeding in New York since she lifted the title in 2022. This year, she’s seeded 8th , another symptom of how bunched up the top of the sport is right now. She’s projected into a quarterfinal with Rybakina, which given Rybakina’s fitness questions might be the best draw luck ลwiฤ tek could ask for. Hard courts have just never quite clicked for her the way clay does, and New York in particular has been a recurring source of frustration. If there’s a “does she finally solve it” storyline in this draw, it’s hers.
Coco Gauff, on the other hand, arrives with the most obvious form of anyone in the field. She just won her second Cincinnati title, beating Pegula in the final, and the parallel writing itself is that she won Cincinnati in 2023 and then won her first Slam here a few weeks later. She’s downplayed the comparison publicly, which is the right instinct โ but her double-fault numbers, which led the tour the past two seasons, have genuinely improved under Gavin MacMillan, the same biomechanics coach who rebuilt Sabalenka’s service motion. She’s the No. 4 seed but sits as the clear second favorite and she gets to do it in the building where she already has a title.
The favorites, realistically
Sabalenka is still the correct favorite given the rรฉsumรฉ, but “correct favorite” and “safe bet” aren’t the same thing this year. Bluntly, seven different major winners in a row is the kind of stat that should make you nervous about anyone. Gauff has the best current hard-court form in the field and a home-crowd edge that shouldn’t be underrated in a two-week event. ลwiฤ tek is the wild card of the top tier: capable of running through anyone, equally capable of a puzzling exit against a player she should beat and was impressive en route to a Toronto title. Rybakina remains dangerous purely on ceiling and she already has a hard-court major this year from Melbourne, but the physical question mark is real. And Pegula deserves more attention than she usually gets: third seed, a Cincinnati finalist just weeks ago, and playing a home Slam with a draw that sets up reasonably well for her before a likely quarterfinal against Karolina Muchovรก. Also she’s made her lone Grand Slam final here in New York.
Don’t sleep on Mirra Andreeva either. She’s the reigning French Open champion at 19, seeded 5th, and projected to run into Rybakina in the semifinals if the seeds hold โ which on hard courts is genuinely competitive tennis, not a formality.
Darkhorses worth watching
Alexandra Eala is the name to file away. The Filipino player was over 100-1 to win it all two months ago and has come down to around 28-1 after winning her first WTA title in Washington. She landed in Gauff’s quarter and could face 14th-seeded Iva Jovic as early as the third round: a match worth circling regardless of how far either of them actually goes, because it’s the kind of match that potentially tells you something about the WTA’s future in a few years.
Marta Kostyuk is in the middle of a genuine breakout season and is chasing her third consecutive Grand Slam semifinal, which is not a small thing to say about anyone right now. She’s also sitting in Sabalenka’s section, for what it’s worth.
Linda Noskovรก technically isn’t a “darkhorse” anymore as the reigning Wimbledon champion and the No. 6 seed. To be frank, she’s priced well behind where that resume would normally put her and she’s projected to meet Sabalenka in the quarterfinals. If she’s the one who ends Sabalenka’s stay in that matchup, nobody who’s watched her this year should be shocked.
There’s also two-time U.S. Open champion Naomi Osaka, last year’s runner-up Amanda Anisimova and the forever tough Elina Svitolina lurking around in the Nos. 9-16 range that can really shake the top seeds out of this tournament.
Now, I was able to get a print out of the draw on-site here in New York and filled out my entire bracket before the tournament started and here’s how I think things will pan out through the women’s final on Sept. 12:
Round of 16
(1) Aryna Sabalenka def. (15) Diana Shnaider
(11) Marta Kostyuk def. (6) Linda Noskovรก
(3) Jessica Pegula def. (16) Sorana Cรฎrstea
(9) Elina Svitolina def. (7) Karolina Muchovรก
(10) Amanda Anisimova def. (5) Maria Andreeva
(4) Coco Gauff def. (14) Iva Jovic
(8) Iga ลwiฤ
tek def. (22) Madison Keys
(13) Naomi Osaka def. (2) Elena Rybakina
Quarterfinals
(1) Aryna Sabalenka def. (11) Marta Kostyuk
(3) Jessica Pegula def. (9) Elina Svitolina
(4) Coco Gauff def. (10) Amanda Anisimova
(8) Iga ลwiฤ
tek def. (13) Naomi Osaka
Semi-Finals
(3) Jessica Pegula (1) Aryna Sabalenka
(4) Coco Gauff def. (8) ลwiฤ
tek
Final
(4) Coco Gauff def. Jessica Pegula (but I will say, my gut wanted to list Pegula here as the champ. I just have a feeling but my hand wrote Gauff on my draw, so just in the event the reverse happens, I want the record to reflect.
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This week in women’s tennis
Congratulations to Mary Carillo, who was inducted into the International Tennis Hall of Fame this past weekend.
Diane Parry won her first WTA singles title at the Abierto GNP Seguros with a three-set win over Elise Mertens. The doubles title was captured by Maya Joint and Xu Yifan, who defeated Maria Kozyreva and Maia Lumsden.
Qualifying week at the U.S. Open is special, but the last match to finish was an absolute battle with Brooklyn-born Elvina Kalieva reaching her first major with a standing-room only crowd. The roar on match point might’ve been my highlight last week.
Katie Boulter shared the trials and tribulations of being a newlywed with ATP player Alex de Minaur and how tennis is the priority for now.
Taylor Townsend says she plays her best tennis in New York and is eager for another deep singles run.
Thea Frodin was a playing extra for the King Richard movie and now finds herself facing off against Elena Rybakina in the first round of the U.S. Open.
Emma Navarro headlines the list of collegiate alums in the main draw of this year’s U.S. Open:
Genie Bouchard is just over a year into retirement and is embracing life without being tethered to a suitcase.
The U.S. Open is becoming a bit of a city of influencers instead of tennis at the focus.
Are you a tennis score nerd? If so, @tenniscorigami has you covered.
In partnerships news, Jessica Pegula is teaming up with The Farmer’s Dog, Naomi Osaka is with Tatcha and Aryna Sabalenka will be a face of Moroccanoil.
For lower-ranked players, things like this from Slams go a long way:
The ATX Open will continue in the Lone Star State through at least 2029 following an extension.
It was nice to see some friends and former colleagues in the media center who moved onto tennis.com but are going through a “pause,” a tough but potential indicator of how American tennis media is evolving.
It’s hot in New York and adidas is bringing technology used in other sports to tennis.
The Singapore Open entry list was announced with Jessica Pegula, Mirra Andreeva and Amanda Anisimova headlining the top of the list.
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Five at The IX: U.S. Open Media Day
Q. How do you feel about your game the last few months? Because it has been a while since your last title in Miami. This has been a really dominant few years for you. How do you tell yourself that there’s not much reason to panic or be worried about…
ARYNA SABALENKA: Well, that’s the beauty of a sport. Throw tough challenges at me, I will come back only stronger. It wasn’t the best period. I don’t want to defend myself, but obviously I just don’t want to talk about that period. I’ve been dealing with several things.
But who cares, right? Yeah, I didn’t perform my best. These tough lessons definitely going to make me way, way stronger and working even harder.
I work on my mental side of the game. I was trying to reset my mind and to come back stronger, so it’s only going to make me stronger. It’s only a matter of time for me to come back.
Q. You have taken a role in leadership and structure on the tours, you were quoted in the announcement about the agreement with the slams. Could you articulate a bit more about how you feel about what’s been accomplished so far and also about the council you’re getting behind the scenes.
JESSICA PEGULA: I think it’s been amazing what the players have been able to accomplish. They have never had anything like this as far as with the slams being able to generate a council, also the player welfare contribution, and then another increase in prize money has been amazing. It shows being united on the men and the women’s side, especially with the top players, have put a lot of pressure on the slams just to continue to grow our sport and feel like we’re making progress at least with the players.
There is still of course more work to do and there’s going to be a lot of things that come up, but I am definitely appreciative of, especially the US Open, to kind of step forward with making those announcements and wanting to do that.
I think it’s very important for our sport, but obviously that doesn’t mean it ends there. I think going into the council, we’ll see how that’s constructed, and whose on it and how it’s made up, and then I think a lot of discussions will have to go through there. It’s been interesting to be a part of. It’s just the other side of tennis and dealing with slams. Tennis is very fractionalized in a lot of ways. So being able to kind of get everyone on the same page is a huge step for our sport and for the players. I know a lot of the players have been really appreciative of that. I’m happy that I could be a part of it.
Q. Maybe it’s a slightly weird question, but curious, not just in the Philippines, how aware you are of the impact you’re having on tennis. Like I think everybody in the media is aware that put your name in the headlines for something and it will get ten times the hits. It’s a game changer for the sport in terms of economy, and that’s a lot on one person’s shoulders. I wondered how aware you are of that, how you experience that.
ALEXANDRA EALA: Well, I think at the forefront of everything is gratitude. I’m very grateful for the support, right, that my fans give me and that my supporters give me.
But in terms of what I contribute to the tennis, every single WTA player and every single ATP player has contributed to the world of tennis and its history just by being here and by putting in the work every single day.
So although there are certain things like the media and the things that you mentioned that make me stand out, I think that I’m a drop in the ocean when it comes to these things. And the more I’m on tour, the more I learn about the history.
Of course this year, having had the pleasure to play doubles twice with Venus, I have learned a lot about her mentality on court, but also things about how she championed equal prize money with her sister, and things like that. Maybe the regular player on tour who’s not so exposed to the media, what they’ve had to work towards and what they’ve had to work through to get to where they are now is so inspiring in itself.
So there are so many stories behind the scenes that you might not even realize. So that really keeps me humble. It keeps me motivated to work harder and stay among these incredible people.
Q. Your mom posted on Instagram yesterday about the requests that you get for tickets, and she was very polite and firm, but can you expand on that a little bit. Do you see the most demand around the US Open? Why might that be? Obviously you’ve had a lot of success on tour, winning matches all over the world. What about this week compares to the rest of your time on tour in terms of the demand you get for tickets?
COCO GAUFF: Yeah, for starters, I did not know she was posting that. I saw the Cincinnati picture before I went to practice and I saw a long caption. I’m like, Oh, this is probably something sweet, I’ll read it after practice, because I was on the way on court. Then I saw somebody on Threads say, Oh, Mama Gauff is strict. I was like, what’s going on?
I looked, and then I see this post, and I’m, like, Oh, my goodness. But honestly, it was needed, and it was directed, yeah, towards a few family and friends.
No, to be honest, yeah, people come out of the woodwork. You haven’t spoken to someone for years. They don’t say congrats or happy birthday or nothing, then they’re like, Oh, I’m in New York, can I have 8 tickets to your match in your box, please.
They give us tickets here, but they’re selling an event so it’s not like I can give all these people tickets. No, last year they were really stressed out between my mom and my dad trying to accommodate everyone. If we have it, we’ll give it. But it was just I think stressful for them.
A lot of people personally don’t have my number, so they don’t reach out to me. They’ll reach out to them or someone on my team.
Yeah, I guess, I don’t know who the person who sent her a text this year where she felt that was like the final straw. But somebody must have sent her something, and she was just, like, I need to make a post.
Yeah, specifically in New York, it’s just crazy. But New York and Wimbledon are the ones that I think people want to come to, and we try our best to accommodate everyone. But some of the requests, you would be surprised at how absurd they are.
Q. What were the biggest lessons you learned from winning Wimbledon? How are you going to use that entering your first major as a slam champion?
LINDA NOSKOVร: Yeah, well, I definitely learned a lot along the way, along those two weeks, and not only those two weeks. But it’s something I’ve always worked for. It is always something that I dreamed of winning and doing. But it’s still all brand new, so it’s very tough to get used to whatever comes in this way. But I feel like I have learned mainly the fact that I’m possible โ it’s possible, you know, for me to do it, for me to make it till the very end, and just lift Grand Slam trophy. I feel like all of us, all players, just dream about that moment and when it actually comes, it’s very hard to realize, and to realize all the things that went into it.
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