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The 2026 WTA Finals began on Sunday, but the big news of the weekend was the sudden withdrawal of World No. 1 and defending champion Elena Rybakina. The Kazakh withdrew due to viral illness and was replaced by first alternate Marta Kostyuk. The news wasn’t a shock. She had already pushed back her pre-tournament press conference by a day and had pulled out of the Tokyo quarterfinals (after clinching the year-end World No. 1 ranking) with a neck injury.
The loss is significant. Rybakina won the Australian Open and the U.S. Open this year and became the world No. 1 for the first time. She finished the season 17-2 at the Grand Slams, with titles in Stuttgart and Ningbo, and finals at Indian Wells and Toronto. She also led the tour in aces by a wide margin, hitting 438 this season, 140 more than No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka. She was the defending champion, having gone through last year’s event unbeaten and the clear favorite coming in.
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Rybakina will still finish the year ranked No. 1. The withdrawal costs her a chance at history rather than the ranking. She will not become the first woman since Serena Williams in 2014 to win the WTA Finals in consecutive years. It also hands Sabalenka an opportunity, since her withdrawal gives her Belarusian rival the chance to close the gap between them.
This year’s event also moved. It was scheduled to take place in Saudi Arabia but was relocated to Indian Wells in July after U.S. military strikes on Iran in February and the war that followed in the region. That changes the conditions. Indian Wells is an outdoor hard-court venue where the ball bounces high and the courts play on the slower side. Compared with last year’s faster Riyadh conditions, this helps counter-punchers and heavy hitters with strong defense, and it blunts pure serving. Even if Rybakina had been healthy, her biggest weapon would have been somewhat less decisive here.
How a Rybakina-less Finals impacts the tournament
Before the withdrawal, the standard take was that Rybakina was the favorite, Sabalenka was her main rival, and everyone else was fighting for the other semifinal spots. Now the picture is quite different.
First, the best player of the year is gone, so the title is much more open. Rybakina’s 2026 results against the other seven players were excellent and none of them have a Slam-level record against her.
Second, Sabalenka becomes the favorite by default. She’s the only player in the field with a clear record of beating nearly everyone, and she has the most match-winning weapons on a slower hard court. Her main weakness is herself. When her serve or forehand goes off, she can lose to almost anyone, which is why she doesn’t win everything even when she’s the best player in the draw.
Third, the Americans get a real chance. Gauff in particular has been consistent at big events, with Cincinnati, finals in Rome and Miami and a quarterfinal at Wimbledon. She has beaten Pegula repeatedly this season and beaten Sabalenka-level opposition before. The one thing she hasn’t done this year is win the biggest events. A bracket without Rybakina gives her a better route than she would have had.
Finally, there’s the ranking angle. Rybakina ends the year at No. 1 whether she plays or not, but the year-end narrative is affected. A Sabalenka title would give her a strong closing statement and a good claim to be considered the best player in the world heading into 2027, even if the official number next to her name says otherwise.
The field
The eight-player field is split into two round-robin groups, and the top two in each advance to the semifinals.
- Group 1: Coco Gauff, Jessica Pegula, Linda Nosková and Marta Kostyuk
- Group 2: Aryna Sabalenka, Mirra Andreeva, Elina Svitolina and Karolína Muchová
The draw originally put Rybakina in a brutal group. She was drawn with Gauff, Pegula and Nosková, while Sabalenka’s group looked more evenly matched. Removing her turns Group 1 into a much more open contest. She was the one player there who consistently beat everyone else, and she led Nosková 3-0 in their head-to-head. Without her, Gauff is the clear favorite in the group, with Nosková (to me) a dangerous second.
Group 2 is unchanged and has always been Sabalenka’s group to lose. Because the groups are separate, Rybakina and Sabalenka could only have met in the semifinals or the final. That meeting is the marquee potential matchup the tournament has lost. Rybakina beat Sabalenka in last year’s Finals championship match and in two Grand Slam finals this season, though Sabalenka won the Indian Wells final in March. The one player who has had Sabalenka’s number on the biggest stages won’t be in the bracket. Other than Sabalenka, it’s a crapshoot to see who will take a semifinal berth. I’ll slightly give Mirra Andreeva the one-up here but Elina Svitolina and Karolína Muchová can knock each other out to have it come down to sets or even games.
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“Round 1”
Group 1 opened Sunday with two results. Gauff defeated Pegula 6-4, 6-7(5), 6-2, and Nosková downed Kostyuk 6-2, 6-4. Gauff’s win was a long, tense match, but she closed it out with a dominant third set. That’s the kind of match she often loses, so it’s an encouraging sign for her.
Nosková looked sharp and has plenty of reason for confidence. She’s the Wimbledon champion, and she is 2-1 against Gauff, including a win in Madrid this year. The Tuesday match between the two is the key one in the group. Nosková can clinch a semifinal spot with a straight-sets win, and if Gauff and Pegula both win, Gauff takes the group. Pegula and Kostyuk are fighting to stay alive. Pegula is dangerous but has just lost a draining three-setter, and Kostyuk has the additional disadvantage of arriving as a late substitute who had been practicing as an alternate
Sabalenka opened Monday with a tight two-set win over Muchová, 7-6(2), 7-5. That was a reasonable start against a clever, difficult opponent. Muchová led their head-to-head coming in, so beating her matters.
Andreeva, the No. 3 seed, beat Svitolina 6-4, 6-0, a scoreline I certainly wasn’t expecting. That puts Andreeva level with Sabalenka at 1-0, and it leaves Svitolina in a difficult spot. Svitolina is a seasoned competitor who won the Italian Open this year, beating Gauff in the final. But a bagel in the second set is a rough way to start a short round-robin, and she now needs to win her remaining matches to have a chance of advancing.
Andreeva or Muchová could still take a set off Sabalenka, and a loss in the group wouldn’t eliminate her. Still, it’s hard to see her not reaching the semifinals. She’s the strongest player in the group on pace alone, and she has won Indian Wells and Miami this year. Her Indian Wells title in March came in a final she won from a set down, saving a championship point along the way. That’s an encouraging sign for her at this particular venue.
Predicting the rest of the week
My semifinal picks are Sabalenka vs. Nosková and Gauff vs. Andreeva, with the matchups depending on how the groups finish. I expect Sabalenka to beat Nosková in a good match, since her power and experience should outlast Nosková’s aggression over three sets but don’t be surprised if Sabalenka shows up to win in 2. Gauff should get past Andreeva with her defense and consistency, though that one could go either way. Gauff has had Andreeva’s number and that mental edge gains more muscle when the field is this tough.
That sets up Sabalenka against Gauff in the final. Gauff has a real chance, but Sabalenka has the edge in firepower, her hard-court record this year is excellent and she has won two of the biggest WTA-level hardcourt events of 2026 already. On a slower surface, Gauff’s defense will force Sabalenka to win the points herself, and that’s usually what she does best when she’s in rhythm.
I’ll take Sabalenka over Gauff in a three-set battle to finally capture her first WTA Finals.
Until next week, on to links!
This Week in Women’s Tennis
Claire Liu, one of my favorite stories of 2026, won her first career WTA title at the Prudential Hong Kong Open with a rout of Alex Eala. The doubles title was captured by Chan Hao-ching and Miyu Kato who defeated Aussies Talia Gibson and Maddison Inglis.
At the Chennai Open, Magda Linette upset top seed and defending champion Janice Tjen to win her fourth career WTA title. Simona Waltert and Naïma Karamoko won the doubles crown over local hopes Vaishnavi Adkar and Rutuja Bhosale, who were the first all-Indian duo to make a WTA final.
Live practice streams were available leading up to the WTA Finals and unfortunately, Jessica Pegula was caught on a hot mic that led to an apology from the WTA for not letting players aware of the situation.
Two wtatennis.com reads: the stats of the WTA Finals field and Martina Navratilova’s Indian Wells breakdown.
The WTA changed up their usual portrait shoot of the WTA Finals participants, which the styling caught some heat online:
Barbara Palicova, who was a Top 200 player this year, has committed to play at Texas during the upcoming Spring season.
Jodie Burrage opened up about the abuse she received online following her loss in Chennai.
Here for Hello Kitty x WTA.
Tennis continues to make a big resurgence in America but can it stick to create domination on tour?
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Five at The IX: WTA Finals Media Day
” I’m usually a focus on ‘what’s next’ type of person, but definitely [being] here five times in a row is something to be proud of because [I’m] consistently being among the top eight players of the world for some time now. I definitely think that’s an accomplishment. When you’re in it, you don’t really realize how big of a deal it is” — Coco Gauff, reflecting on her making five straight WTA Finals
“I think I keep an open mind. There’s definitely surfaces I know that certain players hate. If you go in maybe with a different mentality and can kind of work on that, that can really change your season around on a surface that maybe you’re not comfortable on … .That’s what I try to do. I try to know if I’m struggling on one. I’m like, ‘Yeah, I don’t really like it, but I got to find a way to figure out how to make it work.” — Jessica Pegula on maintaining her consistency across surfaces
“I do not have my driver’s license yet. I’m planning on getting it maybe in the end of this year, maybe [smiling]. We used this car for the photo shoot. I was able to sit inside. Obviously I played with it a little bit. They didn’t give me the key, unfortunately [laughing] … .It’s a very nice car. Very comfortable. Even if I do not have my driver’s license, as I say many times, I know how to drive. I know how to, you know, get around in the car. It’s not going to be a problem. It’s going to be a very, very nice prize for the winner.” — Mirra Andreeva on the one-of-a-kind MANUFAKTUR Made to Measure Mercedes-AMG SL 55 roadster given to the singles winner
“It’s the most competitive tournament that one can play in a year. Also the situation where you can lose a match and win the whole thing is very, very new to me. I’ve seen people do it. It’s a great way to show the fighting spirit. I cannot wait what happens in the first few rounds.” — Linda Nosková on competing in her first WTA Finals
” I’m super happy to be back at Indian Wells. A lot of great memories, especially this season, getting my dog, getting engaged, winning the title. I hope Indian Wells will keep being perfect for me [smiling]. ” — Aryna Sabalenka on returning to Indian Wells
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