Another week full of high-level matchups led to more answers and more questions, as we are just under a month away from Selection Sunday. There continue to be upsets, big performances, and even bigger shots. This all leads to the convoluted mess we call the bracket. Here is my projection in this week’s edition of Bracketology.
We will start at the top and work through some of the key points that led to the shape of this bracket:
The one seeds haven’t changed in over a month, and they probably won’t unless somebody loses. We came close this week with UCLA pulling out a nailbiter against Michigan on Sunday. Everybody else won their games with relative ease. These have been the top four teams since the start of the season, and they have proven why consistently.
The last couple of hosting spots were a real mess this week. Maryland bounced back with two good wins last week and pushed itself back into a Top 16 seed. It also helped that many of the teams around them lost at least one game last week. The spot came down to Tennessee and Mississippi. The Volunteers got the final spot thanks to 5 Quad One wins compared to the Rebels’ two. The two teams meet this week, so we’ll have a head-to-head answer soon.
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We had a big change to the bubble as the Stanford Cardinal dropped down into the last four in, while Clemson moved up into the last four byes area. Stanford has been on a downward trajectory, dropping six of their last eight games. Two of those six losses came to non-projected tournament teams, including last week in a 21-point loss to Georgia Tech. Virginia and Colorado just missed out, but have been playing well recently and will have opportunities to jump in this week.
The biggest risers of the bracket over the past week were two Big Ten teams that swept their week in Maryland and Minnesota. Both teams moved up three overall spots and one seed line after upsetting Michigan State and Iowa, respectively. The Gophers and the Terrapins played a thrilling double overtime game way back in December, and it would be great to see them match up again next month in the conference tournament.
The biggest faller of the week was Kentucky. The Wildcats dropped two tough games this week to Vanderbilt and Texas. It continues what has been a rough stretch for Kenny Brooks’ bunch, as they have now lost five of their last six. They have all been to projected tournament teams, but not good for a team with hosting aspirations.
Five power conference games that will have the greatest impact on the bracket over the next week
Vanderbilt vs. Texas, Feb. 12
TCU vs. Baylor, Feb. 12
South Carolina vs. LSU, Feb. 14
Michigan vs. Michigan State, Feb. 15
Virginia vs. Stanford, Feb. 15
Two mid-major games that will most impact the bracket over the next week
Princeton vs. Columbia, Feb. 13
Fairfield vs. Quinnipiac, Feb. 14
Bracketology methodology
Here are some basic bracket rules that help influence my bracket:
- The top four seed lines in each region shall be from different conferences unless a conference has more than four teams in the top 16 (making this rule impossible to follow, as is the case with the SEC and Big 10 in my bracket).
- Teams from the same conference shall not be projected to meet until the Elite Eight if they met three times during the regular season, or the Sweet 16 if they met twice. Because we don’t know what will happen in conference tournaments, I am assuming every conference team will face each other one more time than what is on their schedule. I was able to keep conference teams apart until the Elite Eight, except for one matchup that would require a last-four-in team to pull off an upset.
- In order to comply with bracket rules, it is acceptable to move a team up or down one seed line. I did not have to do that in this projection.
Bracket breakdown:
Multi-Bid conferences:
Big Ten: 12
SEC: 11
ACC: 9
Big 12: 7
Big East: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Last four in:
Stanford
Richmond
Utah
Virginia Tech
First four out:
Virginia
Colorado
Fairfield
Arizona State
Next four out:
South Dakota State
Kansas
Cal
BYU
Next Update: February 18th
Editor’s note (Feb. 11, 3:15 p.m. ET): An earlier version of this story included McNeese State in two different positions on the bracket. This updated bracket has Arkansas State facing Tennessee in Knoxville, Tenn., and McNeese State facing Maryland in College Park, Md.
