When Angel Reese took to the podium after the Dream’s 11-point win over the Phoenix Mercury on Aug. 22, she was confident.
Feeling herself.
Feeling her team.
It’s understandable why, too, as the Dream were in the midst of a four-game road winning streak – including beating the Las Vegas Aces, who always have the Dream’s number – and it marked the third straight game where the Dream’s defensive big three – Reese, Rhyne Howard, and Jordin Canada – recorded eight or more steals in a game.
In fact, during that three-game stretch, the three Dream defensive stalwarts recorded 27 steals between them.
“I think the Defensive Player of the Year is in Atlanta,” Reese said during her postgame availability. “One through three. One of us. So, you can check the stats, too.”
The confidence is part of what makes her Angel, but does the Defensive Player of the Year really reside in Atlanta?
The odds seem to think it’s a possibility. Here’s what FanDuel has the odds set at as of Sept. 9:
- Gabby Williams, -140
- A’ja Wilson, +260
- Shakira Austin, +550
- Angel Reese, +900
- Kiah Stokes, +7500
- Veronica Burton, +10000
- Natasha Howard, +10000
- Rhyne Howard, +20000
- Breanna Stewart, +25000
Those aren’t stats, though. Those are just betting odds. Reese gave us a prompt to “check the stats,” so we’re going to do just that to see the case for her, Howard, and Canada.
Traditional stats
Rhyne Howard:
- First in steals per game
- Second in points off turnovers
Jordin Canada:
- Second in steals per game
- The only player in the league to average more than 6 assists and 1 steal per game
Angel Reese:
- Third in steals per game
- 10th in points off of turnovers
These are the traditional stats where the Dream players excel. All season long, head coach Karl Smesko has put an emphasis on getting DEALS (deflections+steals), and it’s something that all three have taken seriously.
Canada and Howard have been having an internal competition game-to-game to jockey for position as the league leader in steals, with Reese right behind them.
As for the deflections, well, it’s a stat that isn’t tracked.
“I don’t think they keep this as a stat, but Rhyne probably leads the league in deflections,” Smesko told reporters. “She’s just very disruptive on the defensive end.”
For Howard, specifically, she has a chance to break the WNBA record for steals in a season (100 by Teresa Weatherspoon in 1998), needing nine more across the team’s final four games to get her there.
“Coach talks a lot about deflections and steals,” Canada said. “I think that is the difference with our defense of just being able to just get a lot of deflections, hands on the ball, and us being able to run out and transition and getting a lot of steals and stealing possessions from the other team, and allowing us to execute on the offensive end in transition.”
No team does a better job in prioritizing its defense to set up its offense than the Golden State Valkyries, but Atlanta is up there in terms of doing what it wants to do – push the pace.
Howard leading the charge in points off of turnovers isn’t a surprise, neither is Reese coming in at No. 10. Canada won’t appear there, but she’s the facilitator on offense who will push the action out of transition to often set them up for those buckets.
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Advanced stats
Rhyne Howard
- 14th in total VPM (98th percentile)
- 99th percentile in turnover value (+38)
- Fifth in the league in stop percentage
- 10th in defensive rating
- Third in defensive win shares (2.3)
- Fourth in total win shares 6.5
- Fourth in rated man-to-man defense
- Leads all players in minutes per game
- Third in the league in transition points per game
- Second in the league in fast-break threes.
- 92 steals are the fifth most in any WNBA season
- Fourth in defensive net points
- Second in total net points
- Second in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) at 6.5. A’ja Wilson leads all players at 6.6
Jordin Canada
- One of three qualified point guards to have a positive offensive and defensive VPM
- In the 94th percentile or better in assist creation and self-created shots
- Third in the league in stop percentage
- 15th in defensive rating (2nd among PGs)
- 10th in defensive win shares (2nd among PGs) 1.9
- Top 20 in isolated defense
- Sixth in defensive WAR (tied with A’ja and Azzi)
Angel Reese
- Second in defensive VPM
- 98th percentile in turnover value
- 3.5 stop percentage (82nd percentile)
- Fourth in defensive rating
- Leads all players in defensive win shares (2.5)
- Defensive on/off leader (-15.1 difference when she’s off the court)
- No. 5 in net rating difference
- Second in defensive RAPM
- Tied for first in jump balls won
- Ranks 13th in defensive ranking during high-leverage minutes
- One of two players to average a double-double on the season
- One of two centers to average more than 1.5 steals per game (Aliyah Boston)
- Leads the league in Total Rebound Percentage
- She has 485 rebounds, 198 offensive rebounds, and 36 mebounds (z-bounds) for 18.75%
The three also have a 101.9 defensive rating for three-player lineup rankings, which is 11th among all qualified lineups.
When Gabby Williams, the betting favorite for Defensive Player of the Year, was in Atlanta earlier this year, she chatted with The IX Sports about the tide changing from bigs to wings in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation.
A lot of that has to do with not looking just at the traditional box score stats, but looking deeper than that.
“When you have guards like Ryne and I, there are no guards who are never mentioned in the conversation for Defensive Player of the Year,” Williams told The IX Sports. “I’m hoping that we start seeing more players like us and others like Allisha Gray in there, as well. We are players who just want to win and want to win on the defensive end. I just hope that it brings some light to it, and that we’re not just counting blocks.”
That’s where the Dream players – and Williams – really stand out.
A lot of the above stats are measured with advanced plus-minus data, taking context into account with not just the points scored when they are on and off the court (a flawed metric to use), but it’s looking at who is playing alongside them, who is against them, the matchups that they are drawing, the hedging on the screens, the help-side defense, and more.
Now, each voter has their own criteria to vote for, and sometimes, it’s easier to look at the surface-level stats.
Let’s relate this to baseball really quick, yeah? Stay with me.
A player can win the Triple Crown if they lead the league in home runs, runs scored, and RBIs. Now, as the sport has developed, we know that there are data points that more accurately measure a player’s value to a team and overall value that are stickier than using runs and RBIs, which lack context and other variables.
However, for the average fan, it’s worth using those as an entry point and for accessibility. Both of those are good things.
The same can be said with the WNBA. If blocks, steals, and defensive rating are what you care about the most, I’m not here to change your mind.
It’s worth noting, though, that it’s the reason that bigs traditionally win this award as the last line of defense.
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The eye test
What about what can’t be measured?
Before the Dream’s final game before the FIBA break, I asked Smesko about what the three players do that may not be seen in the box score.
The example that I threw out to him was the job that Reese does defending ball screens with her lateral and vertical quickness to take away passing lanes, hedge out on the ball handler, and get back into position to thwart any additional offensive motion out of the play.
Smesko was ready for this one.
“Well, let me start with Rhyne, because I do think that she is one of the smartest players in the league, and she knows what’s coming ahead of time,” Smesko said. “We all do our film work, and we have a pretty good idea of what’s ahead, but she is ahead of the game. She knows what’s coming next. I think that gives her a really big advantage in those situations.
“For Jordin, it’s her relentlessness. She’s just what you want to be. You want to be annoying to go against, and JC is just always right there, and you’re not going to lose her. And if you get away from her for a second, you only have one second because she’s getting back in front of you.”
Then, came Smesko on Reese.
Reese told The IX Sports that, “I want to win a Defensive Player of the Year Award. He (Smesko) knows what I can bring defensively.”
He does, indeed.
“I think that Angel has improved defensively throughout the year because she’s been serious about wanting to make the WNBA All-Defensive team and also being considered for Defensive Player of the Year,” he said. “You’ve seen ball screen defense improve, help side defense improve, defensive communication improve. I do think we have some really good impact players on the defensive side of the ball, and hopefully they get recognized as such.”
Where do they rank against past winners?
The game evolves as we’ve seen, but the best way to use actionable data is to look at a three-year sample.
That’s what we’ll do here with Canada, Howard, and Reese – as well as Williams, the betting favorite – compared to the last three winners of the Defensive Player of the Year Award, with a mix of surface-level stats and analytical ones.
| Player | Year | Steals | Blocks | Defensive Rating | Defensive Win Shares | Defensive VPM |
| Rhyne Howard | 2026 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 100.5 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| Jordin Canada | 2026 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 102.3 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Angel Reese | 2026 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 98.4 | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| Gabby Williams | 2026 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 96.7 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| A’ja Wilson | 2025 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 93.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Alanna Smith | 2025 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 93.7 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Napheesa Collier | 2024 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 89.2 | 2.9 | 2.4 |
| A’ja Wilson | 2023 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 91.3 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
Their advocates
Smesko is an advocate, of course, and when he was asked pregame against the Portland Fire about his “pitch” for the three standout defenders, a huge smile broke across his face.
“Ooh, the pitch!” Smesko exclaimed. “You should have told me ahead of time so I could have all of the numbers.”
I have them, coach. Don’t worry.
“I do think we have multiple candidates for Defensive Player of the Year,” he said. Obviously there’s Angel. You always look at those counting numbers, like steals and rebounds, and she’s the best rebounder in the league. But like our defensive rating with her on the floor is exceptional, and really with our starting unit on the floor, our defensive rating is exceptional (*first in the league, in fact, coach*). The impact that she makes, and being able to guard multiple positions.
“Then you’re looking at Rhyne. There isn’t another player in the league that has as many deflections and defensive plays and takes on the toughest defensive assignments all the time. And then, definitely for a WNBA All-Defensive team, like I think sometimes JC gets overlooked just because she’s not someone who’s going to be talking about all the things that she contributes to the team. She’s the first one to praise everybody else, but we know how big JC’s been for us this year. She’s had a great offensive year, but defensively, only Rhyne has more steals. She’s just so competitive on the defensive end. She makes such a huge impact on that side.”
Smesko was right about his assessment of Canada. Not just about her contributions, of course, but about the way that she will lift up – and advocate for – her teammates ahead of herself.
“I know that Angel impacts the game in a lot of different ways, and the same with Rhyne,” Canada said. “But for me, I’m just here to do my job, honestly. I don’t care about awards. I mean, it’s great to get recognized, but at the end of the day, I just want to win. I want to do whatever I can to help my teammates. So, whatever that requires of me, I’m going to do. I know there’s going to be a lot of people that count me out, and that’s fine. I just want to continue playing the best that I can be.”
One person who isn’t counting Canada out – or Howard and Reese – is the guy who was in charge of keeping this core group together this offseason: general manager Dan Padover.
“It’s funny because all three affect the game at different stages, right? Jordin gets people right from the break, and I think she makes it really difficult on the opposing team’s lead ball handler for 35 to 40 minutes, and it starts there,” Padover told The IX Sports. “Then they get to the next secondary level, and Rhyne is just everywhere, and from a lateral standpoint, she can just cover so much ground with her quickness, with her length. She’s got some of the best hands in the league.”
Padover goes on to talk about Reese’s impact not only at the rim at the third level, but also her versatility.
“With Angel on the back line, she can switch from guards to bigs. She’s so quick,” Padover said. “She can get out and recover to posts who can shoot. She makes huge plays, as you guys have seen with you know some phenomenal steals. They all are just obviously really quick to get to the ball, whether it’s from a deflection or steals perspective. That’s why they’re in the top three in the league. But they all do it from a different position. They all do it in different ways, and all three of them are equally effective.”
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There hasn’t been a big push behind any of them yet. Once FIBA ends, we’ll see more of that. Media voters have from Sept. 17 to 25 to vote for their award winners – including the Defensive Player of the Year.
Once momentum starts taking shape, Smesko will be ready to make a strong push for his player.
“I do think we should have the Defensive Player of the Year, and I will weigh in as soon as I see that there’s some momentum behind one of our players,” Smesko said. “I’m all in on that one, and I will say that lately, Angel seems to be trending in that direction. So I’m hoping everybody takes a look at what we’ve been able to do defensively, not just with the counting numbers, but analytically, what we’ve been able to do with Angel and Rhyne on the floor, and then hopefully J.C. makes the WNBA All-Defensive team, as well.”
