Last week, UCLA and USC both beat then-No. 9 Ohio State at home by double digits. In both games, the winners were aided by 29% shooting for Ohio State, balanced scoring, depth, and significant rebounding margins. So, what happens in the Battle of Los Angeles on Thursday? Will USC pull off the upset? Or does UCLA continue their unbeaten streak, bringing it to 24 games?
Keys for USC:
If the game against Ohio State showed viewers anything, it’s that USC can win without JuJu Watkins putting up monster numbers. The Wooden Award finalist didn’t have her first points until 5:34 left in the first half, when she hit a pair of free throws. She didn’t hit her first field goal until 2:02 left in the third quarter on a difficult and-one bucket, after going 0-11 from the floor. But teammates Kiki Iriafen (24 points, 13 rebounds, 4 assists) and Kennedy Smith (13 points, 13 rebounds, 5 assists, 3-3 from three), picked up the slack. Against a UCLA team that prides itself in the depth of its talent, USC will absolutely need to avoid being a one-woman-show.
After the win, Coach Lindsay Gottlieb told reporters “We want everyone clicking, we want everyone in a rhythm. But the gravity that she draws and attracts opens things up for other people, and everyone’s got her back. And they’re capable of making plays.” She added “I don’t think we were in a position last year where we could have won games without her scoring as much as she had to score. We’re built a little differently this year.”
USC’s 62 rebounds more than doubled Ohio State’s 30, and they held Ohio State to a whopping zero second chance points on only six offensive rebounds. They themselves had 18 second chance points on 19 offensive rebounds. Against UCLA, this will be a major key, as the Bruins’ total rebound rate is first in the nation at 60.3%. UCLA’s Lauren Betts is averaging 9.7 rebounds per game this season, fourth in the Big Ten. She’s grabbing 4 offensive rebounds per game. Iriafen has a tall (to the tune of 6’7) task in keeping former teammate Betts of the glass, while keeping her fouls at the minimum — an area that has been an ongoing challenge for her this season.
Last but not least, USC will need to limit turnovers. It’s been an ongoing battle for them this year — averaging 20 turnovers per game. Against a team like UCLA that is organized, well-coached and can get out in transition, they won’t win if they don’t take care of the ball.
“We have to find ways to elevate and be better,” said Coach Gottlieb when asked how they would bring their energy into their next matchup. “That’s what we’ll do with UCLA.”
Keys for UCLA:
UCLA’s win over Ohio State came as many of them have this year: a slow wearing down of the other team over time, fueled by depth and the multitude of threats they bring to the table. Despite turning the ball over 23 times against Ohio State’s notorious pressure defense, they rarely looked phased — with a confidence and cohesion that made viewers feel like the victory was never in question. Despite turning it over 23 times, they had 19 assists, perhaps unsurprising given they’re twelfth in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio.
Just as USC will need to keep Lauren Betts off the glass, UCLA will need to do the same. USC’s Iriafen is averaging 18 points per game alongside 8.4 rebounds, half of which are offensive boards. Limiting her second chance points will be essential for USC. Getting Iriafen in early foul trouble will also help — she’s struggled to stay on the floor in key matchups, losing valuable minutes early in the game when playing against larger opponents.
A huge key for UCLA’s frontcourt offense will be limiting JuJu Watkins. In last year’s matchup between the two teams, where USC took the win in double overtime, Watkins scored 33 points on 27 shots. In the earlier matchup, also taken by USC, Watkins had 32. While her shooting has been below her usual average over the last few games, there’s no question her impact, especially in front of a loud home crowd full of celebrities, family, and children in Watkins jerseys.
After the Ohio State game, Head Coach Cori Close said she was grateful that this game was slightly messier than the others they played, heading into the remainder of the season. “We needed a game like that: chaos, disappointment, we looked tired at times, and we had to find a way to buckle down and do it with toughness and rebounding and defense.”
New meaning to the rivalry
While USC and UCLA have been cross-town foes for decades, the last few years have taken the rivalry to a new level. The influx of major talent has brought both sold out crowds and national attention.
After UCLA’s home win last week, UCLA Coach Cori Close reflected on this upgraded rivalry, and how remarkable it is to experience it. “Being able to be a part of building women’s basketball in Southern California, you know, to be able to really have a sense of humility that we are getting to do this, we get to experience something special,” Close said. “And I think that’s what we talk about, about protecting this, and understanding what a privilege this is, to be part of this journey.”
