Welcome back to WNBA Notes, your journey into trends and analysis around the WNBA. Today we’re looking at how Olivia Miles is already elite, what’s wrong with the Toronto rotation, and why the Golden State offense can be worrying. For reference, since this notebook comes out over the weekend, I define “this week” as the prior Sunday through last night.
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Golden State
Gabby Williams is 4-for-8 on pull-up middys and 8-20 on threes. Those jumpers have been huge for the Valkyries, who are relying on her to create pressure on the defense. If and when those don’t fall as much in the future, I’m worried about this offense, because if Kaila Charles shoots like she did prior to joining Golden State last summer, the only players who can consistently create scoring opportunities in this rotation are Veronica Burton and Cecilia Zandalasini. Janelle Salaün’s off-screen shooting is a big weapon too, but that’s three players in the rotation. Even including Tiffany Hayes when she comes back from a broken finger, that’s not a lot of threats who can both dribble and shoot.
Minnesota
The Wings may not be gaining much from Fudd at the moment, but the Lynx sure are glad she went No. 1, because getting Olivia Miles at No. 2 is already shaping up to be a historic steal. The point guard isn’t just a future franchise cornerstone; she’s already saving the Napeesa Collier-less portion of Minnesota’s season and is a top-four point guard in the league right now.1
Save for a rookie mistake here and there, Miles might have the best on-ball feel in the league. Nearly every possession ends in a positive look, whether it’s putting the point of attack defender in hell, blowing by a mismatch or drop coverage, or making passes that only three players in the league could make.2 She has shown little issue with the speed of the WNBA game, unsurprising for a point guard whose 2025-26 season at TCU was spent almost entirely making every opponent into a Potemkin defense.
Thanks to that feel, there’s few players in the game who can match the level of positive impact Miles has shown so far, even with her shooting just 3-12 on jumpers so far, per Synergy. Because while Allisha Gray is stellar at finishing any play where she starts with an advantage and Breanna Stewart is a superconnector who can do anything inside 18 feet and Bueckers will turn the slightest defensive gap into a bucket for someone, Miles is creating an open look for the Lynx offense even when the defense is perfectly set.
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It has so far been impossible to consistently defend against Miles’ speed, her handle and change of pace, and her playmaking. Angel Reese, Natasha Mack and Alanna Smith all learned the hard way about her speed.
Jordin Canada, every single Mercury wing, Odyssey Sims and Azzi Fudd were all put in the torture chamber by the handle.
Karl Smesko and Nate Tibbetts, two of the handful best coaches in the league, have watched their help assignments get abused by the playmaking.
Unless you think her pull-up 3-point attempts have been an issue — and with a 36% mark on those shots since the mechanical change she made after her junior season ACL tear, per Synergy, those should be within her wheelhouse — the only real issue Miles has had is a few ill-advised passes. That’s been the result of adjusting to the speed and length of defensive rotations in the W, but even if that never improves, her current ratio of outstanding to turnover-worthy passes is still in the upper echelon for point guards. Most of the top playmaking prospects in WNBA history only got to Miles’ current assist and turnover percentages (35% and 16%, respectively) in their fourth or fifth seasons, the only exception being Caitlin Clark.
This isn’t even to mention Miles’ off-ball activity on both ends and on-ball defense all being at a significantly higher level than she’d shown at any point since her underclassman seasons at Notre Dame.
But don’t just take my word for it. Here’s a list of every rookie Cheryl Reeve has given at least 20 minutes a game and 20% usage to, per Sports Reference:
- Monica Wright, 2010, when Minnesota finished with the second-worst record in the league
- Maya Moore, 2011
- Crystal Dangerfield, 2020
- Diamond Miller, 2023, one of just two losing seasons since 2010
- Olivia Miles, 2026
The Lynx have already beaten Phoenix and lost by just one point to Atlanta, both preseason favorites to reach the semis.3 Reeve’s plan to entrust the first month and a half of her team’s offense to a rookie is going about as well as it possible could — and Miles isn’t even hitting threes yet.
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Toronto
Sandy Brondello is having some issues this year. The offensive system is a mess, there are routine coverage busts, and her lineups are not putting the backcourt in roles to succeed.
To that last point, what is Julie Allemand doing in the starting lineup? Marina Mabrey and Brittney Sykes rank third and fourth, respectively, in usage rate among qualified players, so there’s no point in having a point guard to set them up when they’re doing nearly all the offensive initiation. But reliable table-setting is the only point in playing Allemand, who is an extremely reluctant shooter and a poor defender.
Brondello should be supplanting Allemand with either Kiki Rice or Lexi Held. Rice has had some foul trouble but has played consistently well with loud flashes, and Held was at times one of the better scorers among bench guards last season with a long track record of great shooting. But Brondello has always relied on trusted vets over younger players even when it was to her own team’s detriment, whether it was shelving Courtney Williams and Isabelle Harrison in favor of the over-the-hill Noelle Quinn and Mistie Bass, playing 33-year-old Camille Smith over Stephanie Talbot, or a litany of bad vets over Brianna Turner, Alanna Smith and Sophie Cunningham.
Moving Allemand down the rotation and moving Rice and Held up, as well as getting Temi Fágbénlé back won’t fix everything, but it’s the easiest start.
- 1. Alyssa Thomas, 2. Caitlin Clark, 3. Veronica Burton, and then a tie between Miles and Chelsea Gray, because I’m a bit concerned by how slow Gray’s looked to start this season. Skylar Diggins is sometimes here but far too inconsistent offensively, and Paige Bueckers isn’t a point guard the way she’s playing (more on that next week). ↩︎
- Her, Gray and Clark ↩︎
- If you knew ball ↩︎
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