WPBL finals preview: Breaking down the championship series

The inaugural season of the Women’s Pro Baseball League has reached its final stage: the best-of-five championship series to crown the first champion in league history. The combatants are the first-place San Francisco Firebells, led by two-way center fielder and regular season home run co-champion Kelsie Whitmore, and the Los Angeles Queens, led by third baseman and five-tool threat Ashton Lansdell.

Unlike the Firebells’ semifinal opponent, the Boston Hunters, whom San Francisco dominated in the regular and postseasons, winning all seven of their head-to-head games, the Queens are a formidable opponent for the presumed best team in the league. During the regular season, the Queens took two of five games from the Firebells; they’ll only need to do one better over the next seven days to complete an upset in this series.

What follows is all you need to know about the two teams heading into this series, which begins Sept. 16, at 7:00 p.m. ET.  (For some background on the league’s rules and the ballpark in which it has played this season, see last week’s semifinal preview.)

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Here’s the full schedule (all times ET, all games are on ESPN Select in the U.S. and on YouTube internationally):

Sept. 16: Queens @ Firebells, Game 1, 7:00 p.m.

Sept. 17: Queens @ Firebells, Game 2, 7:00 p.m.

Sept. 19: Firebells @ Queens, Game 3, 7:00 p.m.

Sept. 20, Firebells @ Queens, Game 4, 3:00 p.m. (if necessary)

Sept. 22, Queens @ Firebells, Game 5, 7:00 p.m. (if necessary)

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Los Angeles Queens (3) @ San Francisco Firebells (1)

Head-to-head series: 3-2 Firebells

Head-to-head run differential: +16 Firebells

The difference in the regular-season series between these two teams was the most lopsided game in WPBL history. On Aug. 14, the Firebells beat the Queens 17-3. Eliminate that game, and the series was even at 2-2 with the Firebells’ outscoring the Queens by just two runs. “Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the theatre?” you might say. Fair enough, but there is a reason to discount that 17-3 game at least slightly. That’s because the Queens’ starting pitcher in that game, who was charged with eight of those 17 runs, was Suzu Narasaki, who not only didn’t pitch again this season, but was traded to the New York Heights a week later and will not participate in this series.

Less easy to discount is the fact that two-way catcher Jamie Mackay followed Narasaki into that game, allowed two inherited runners to score, then gave up eight runs of her own, six of them on a pair of home runs by Whitmore. The Queens will need Mackay to pitch in this series, possibly as early as Game 1. Then again, Mackay faired much better against the Queens on Aug. 21, allowing just one run in 1 1/3 innings, though that run scored on a double by Whitmore, who seems to have Mackay’s number.

Also worth noting: In a season that is less than two months long from Opening Day to the end of the championship series, these two teams have not met in more than three weeks, their last head-to-head game coming on Aug. 21. That was two-way shortstop Ayuri Shimano’s first game with LA and before injured outfielder Isabella Villarreal returned to the Queens’ lineup, so the Firebells have little experience with either, both of whom have ranked among the Queens’ best hitters in the weeks since. San Francisco also hasn’t faced Shimano, a key pitcher for LA in this series, on the mound.

The Queens won that last matchup on Aug. 21, beating San Francisco 8-6 after scoring three runs in the bottom of the sixth off reliever Peyton Coria. Since then, the Firebells have gone 7-1, but six of those games came against the last-place Boston Hunters. Against non-Hunters teams this season, the mighty Firebells are just 5-5 with a mere +2 run differential. The Firebells are a great team, but they’re not invincible.

San Francisco does have one tremendous advantage heading into this series, however: rest. Because they not only swept the Hunters in the semifinals, dispatching them in a mere two games, but also started their semifinal a day earlier, a reward for being the top seed in the league, the Firebells will enter this series having had four days off. That means all of their pitchers are fully rested, and manager Matt Williams can set up his pitching plan however he sees fit.

The Queens, meanwhile, needed the full three games to defeat the Heights in the seminfinals, and started that semifinal a day later. As a result, they will have just one day off between Game 3 of the semis on Monday and Game 1 of the finals on Wednesday. Worse yet, they used all three of their top starters — ace Ayami Sato, arguable seminfinals MVP Michelle Roche, and new-to-the-Firebells Ayuri Shimano — in Monday’s Game 3.

That won’t only matter in Game 1. Unless there’s a sweep, the championship series will open with four games in five days, something no WPBL team has yet encountered. To this point in the season, no team has played more than three games in a week (Monday to Sunday), and those games have always been followed by two days off (Monday’s Game 3 was the first Monday game in league history, and Game 5 of the championship series will be the first Tuesday game, if it’s required).

That will be a challenge even for the fully rested Firebells. For the Queens, who come into the series with their best pitchers already close to overextended, it could prove unmanageable.

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The Rosters

Note: Stats below include both regular and postseason games. Pythagorean winning percentage is based on run differential and is explained in further detail here. Positions listed for each player are in order of their number of games played at each this season. Designated hitter is listed only for players who started two or more games at DH. Pitcher is not listed among the positions for hitters; rather, two-way players (of which there are many) are listed twice, with an asterisk (*) in the pitching portion of the roster indicating that they are two-way players. Bench players and relief pitchers are listed in order of their playing time as hitters or pitchers (but not both) except where noted. Lineups and pitching roles are all projected based on what we’ve seen the teams do to this point. Rosters are 17 players, but each team designates two players as inactive for each game. Statistics are from Baseball-Reference and SportyDolphin.

Los Angeles Queens

W-L: 10-8 (.556)

R/G: 8.00

RA/G: 8.05

Pythagorean WPct: .497 (–1 run differential)

Projected Lineup:

L – Amira Hondras (2B/RF/CF)
L – Ayuri Shimano (SS/1B)
R – Ashton Lansdell (3B/RF)
R – Jamie Mackay (C/DH/LF/1B)
R – Caitlin Eynon (3B/SS/DH)
S – Sarah Edwards (1B/LF/RF)
R – Isabella Villarreal (LF/2B)
R – Maggie Foxx (C/LF/RF)
R – Mo’ne Davis (CF)

Bench:

R – Michelle Roche (RF/LF)
R – Diana Ibarra (CF/LF)
L – Adelaide Frank (1B/DH)
R – Britney Apgar (CF/RF/LF)
R – Addisyn Baird (LF)

R – Samaria Benítez (2B/SS/RF)

Likely SPs:

Jamie Mackay* (R)
Ayami Sato (R)
Michelle Roche* (R)
Ayuri Shimano* (R)

Bullpen:

Meggie Meidlinger (R)
Amira Hondras* (R)
Isabella Villarreal* (R)
Maggie Foxx* (R)
Adalaide Frank* (R)
Brittany Apgar* (L)

Manager: Eric Young Sr.

Note: Samaria Benítez, who had settled in as the Queens’ second baseman and leadoff hitter over the last eight games, suffered a left knee injury in Game 3 of the semifinals that appeared likely to be season-ending. I’ve thus dropped her to the bottom of the depth chart above, and it’s possible that she will be replaced on the roster entirely (though she could simply be among the Queens’ two inactive players for each game). Amira Hondras, who started the last four games in right field, is likely to return to second base in Benítez’s place.

As for how to fill right field, the Queens have several options, including moving Ashton Lansdell back out there and starting Caitlin Eynon at third (though that’s a defensive downgrade at the hot corner). Michelle Roche is next up on the right-field depth chart, but she’s been worked heavily on the mound, and the Queens may prefer not to have her making additional throws from the outfield. Maggie Foxx went to right field to replace Benítez in Game 3. With manager Eric Young showing a preference for Jamie Mackay behind the plate in the postseason, he may return Foxx to right, but Foxx will have to catch when Mackay pitches. That could create opportunities for Diana Ibarra, who has been little used since the Queens acquired her from the Heights on Aug. 1 but drew a walk in both of her plate appearances in the semifinals; late addition Addisyn Baird, who has appeared in just one game since replacing Thaima Maximiliana on the roster when the latter left to join her national team; or Brittany Apgar, who, along with Adelaide Frank, was on the inactive list for all three semifinal games.

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San Francisco Firebells

W-L: 12-5 (.706)

R/G: 9.24

RA/G: 6.88

Pythagorean WPct: .631 (+40 run differential)

Projected Lineup:

R – Amanda Gianelloni (2B)
R – Kelsie Whitmore (CF/DH)
L – Skylar Kaplan (RF/1B)
S – Andréanne Leblanc (1B)
R – Alexia Jorge (C/DH)
R – Joely Leguizamon (SS)
R – Jua Park (3B/LF/2B/CF)
R – Ayaka Yamamoto (3B)
R – Ela Day-Bédard (LF/CF/RF)

Bench:

L – Jordan Eyster (LF/CF/RF)
R – Samantha Gutierrez (C/3B)
R – Rosi del Castillo (DH/CF)
R – Hinano Beppu (2B/LF)
R – Jill Albayati (3B/LF/1B)

Likely SPs:

Kelsie Whitmore* (R)
Jill Albayati* (R)
Niki Eckert (L)
Liz Gilder (L)

Bullpen:

Peyton Coria (R)
Rosi del Castillo* (R)
Ela Day-Bédard* (R)
Andréanne Leblanc* (R)
Jua Park* (R)

Manager: Matt Williams

Note: The Firebells have a number of injury concerns. Backup catcher/third baseman Sam Guiterrez hasn’t played since being hit in the right eye by a ball during infield practice on Sept. 4; she was inactive for both semifinal games. Two-way star Jill Albayati missed three weeks with a hamstring strain and is likely to be used as a pitcher-only in this series (which is why she’s at the bottom of the bench depth chart above). Outfielder Ela Day-Bédard was unable to play in Game 2 of the semifinal due to a neck issue, the nature of which was unclear at the time. The good news is that reliever Rosi del Castillo, who replaced Day-Bédard in the lineup for that game as the designated hitter, appears to be back as a two-way player for San Francisco, even if she has yet to play the outfield since her knee injury. In addition to all of that, lefty Niki Eckert is only available to the team Friday through Sunday due to her job with New York City’s Department of Education (though perhaps she will be able to take some extra time off for the championship series).

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The Matchup

Offense

In the championship series of a league in which teams have averaged 7.9 runs per game, it’s a given that both of these teams can rake. The Firebells have had the more productive lineup, however. In a league that has averaged a .344/.448/.502 (.950 OPS) line, the Firebells have hit .373/.474/.567 (119 OPS+) to the Queens’ .357/.464/.516 (106 OPS+). The Firebells make more contact (with slightly lower strikeout and walk rates) and hit for more bases (1.5 per hit to the Queens’ 1.4 per hit), though those differences are slight. Neither team is a significant stolen base threat as a whole, but the Queens are more likely to attempt a steal and to get caught (with a sub-70% success rate). Ashton Lansdell is most of LA’s running game, haven stole nine bases in nine attempts. For San Francisco, it’s Jua Park, who is 4-for-4.

The gauntlet in the Firebells’ lineup is comprised of the two-through-four hitters: Kelsie Whitmore (.446/.548/1.125, 246 OPS+, 12 HR), Skylar Kaplan (.492/.574/.678, 157 OPS+, 0 K), Andréanne Leblanc (.386/.500/.544, 120 OPS+, 1 K), and Alexia Jorge (.422/.574/.667, 161 OPS+), all of whom have hit multiple home runs and have reached base in at least half of their at-bats this year.

The Queens’ lineup revolves around captain Ashton Lansdell (.500/.622/.944, 227 OPS+, 6 HR), but the hitters around Lansdell have been less consistent. Samaria Benítez had been an on-base machine ahead of Lansdell but may not play in this series due to a left knee injury. Cleanup hitter Jamie Mackay has provided protection for Lansdell based on the five home runs she hit earlier this season, but Mackay has been much quieter at the plate since her two-homer game on Aug. 15. Since then, she has hit just .216/.302/.324 in 42 plate appearances over 11 games, with just two extra-base hits over that span.

Stepping up since then have been Caitlin Eynon (.426/.472/.681, 141 OPS+), Ayuri Shimano, who has settled into the second spot in the order over the last six games and has hit .414/.538/.586 (137 OPS+) in 39 plate appearances on the season, with a crucial grand slam in Monday’s Game 3, and Isabella Villarreal (a batting-average-heavy .583/.615/.667, 170 OPS+ in 26 PA). However, Queens manager Eric Young hasn’t hit Eynon or Villarreal above fifth this season, and Villarreal has hit seventh in the last four games, making the Queens’ lineup far more navigable for opposing pitchers than the Firebells’ lineup.

Edge: Firebells

Defense

These are the middle two teams in the league in terms of fielding performance this season. Given that neither team runs much, their defense against the running game is of minimal significance, though Firebells catcher Alexia Jorge is a formidable opponent for Ashton Lansdell in that regard.

The Queens’ best fielder is Lansdell, without a question, whether she’s at third base or in right field. She’s an elite athlete with tremendous hand-eye coordination and one of the best arms in the league. She’s more valuable at third base, but the Queens will be subpar at whichever of those two positions she’s not playing. Meanwhile, Villarreall is somewhat limited by her still-achy left hamstring in left field. That puts a lot of demand on center fielder Mo’ne Davis, who is arguably the Queens’ next-best fielder.

The Firebell’s best fielder is right fielder Skylar Kaplan, who is both an outstanding ball hawk and has the best outfield arm in the league — the Queens are advised not to try to take the extra base on her. Jorge is also excellent behind the plate. The Firebells are solid up the middle, in general, and the better overall defensive team out of these two.

Edge: Firebells

Starting Pitching

This is complicated by the rest issue mentioned above, as well as by the uncertainty about how Jill Albayati will bounce back from her 44-pitch outing in Game 2 of the semifinals on Friday. Most likely, Matt Williams will open the series with Kelsie Whitmore on the mound, though the Queens have already seen her three times and beaten her twice. They’ve seen Albayati, Gilder, and Eckert once each, with far less success. Eckert, however, may only be available for Games 3 and 4 due to her job in New York. In the semifinal, Williams seemed to prefer to use Gilder in relief, but he may not have that luxury in this series given the frequency of the games and the need for more starters. Albayati really only gave San Francisco two good innings in the semifinals, tiring and getting the hook in her third inning of work. The team is surely hoping that she can build on that, but that’s not a given.

Still, the Firebells are in much better shape than the Queens, who will likely have to turn to Jamie Mackay to start Game 1. Michelle Roche threw 83 pitches on Monday. Ayuri Shimano threw 54 pitches in that game and didn’t make it through her second inning of work after being unavailable to pitch in Game 2 due to an apparent arm issue. Ayami Sato threw 76 pitches between Saturday and Monday’s games. Mackay is thus a default option, effectively the opener of a likely bullpen game, who enters this series with a 13.50 ERA (61 ERA+) on the season. Worth restating: Kelsie Whitmore is 3-for-4 with a double and two home runs against Mackay this season, and the one out was a line drive.

I expect Sato to get Game 2, then Roche can pitch Game 3 on full rest. Sato has faced the Firebells twice, one good, one bad, and surrendered Whitmore’s first two home runs of the season in the latter outing. Roche has faced them just once with middling results, including an Alexia Jorge home run. Shimano has started just one game for the Queens this year, but she’s the only other player on the team to have started a game on the mound other than Mackay, Sato, and Roche. If her arm is healthy, Game 4 would appear to be hers, though she may also prove to be a glorified opener for a bullpen game.

Edge: Firebells

Relief Pitching

This is where things could get ugly. Needing to reserve four pitchers to make starts leaves both of these teams bereft in the bullpen. Rosi del Castillo is the Firebells’ best reliever if Gilder is held back for a start. Peyton Coria has been Matt Williams’s go-to game-finisher, but she has not been consistent. Ela Day-Bédard has a 20.25 ERA and a stiff neck, and Andréanne Leblanc and Jua Park have combined for just 3 2/3 innings on the season, though Leblanc may emerge as a necessary piece of the San Francisco bullpen in this series.

The Queens have the one true bullpen weapon in this series in 38-year-old Meggie Meidlinger, whose only struggles this season have come against the now-eliminated Heights. Meidlinger hasn’t pitched since Saturday and will thus have three day’s rest entering this series. If Eric Young needs her for three innings on Wednesday, he may just use her that way. Still, as the series continues, it might wear Meidlinger down.

The rest of the bullpen behind Meidlinger is effectively position players pitching. That’s not as derogatory a term in this league as it is in MLB, as the WPBL is packed with capable two-way players, and it could arguably describe potential Game 1 starter Mackay, as well. Still, Amira Hondras, Isabella Villarreal, Maggie Foxx, Adelaide Frank, and Brittany Apgar, combined, have barely more innings pitched than Mackay on the season (13 1/3 to 12 2/3), and Hondras is the only one Young has appeared to trust of late. Young got pretty deep into this season relying primarily on Sato, Roche, Mackay, and Meidlinger. He won’t be able to get away with that in this series, and it could be the Queens’ undoing.

Edge: Queens

Outlook

The Firebells are the clear favorite here, both because of their overall performance this season and their advantage of having a fully rested pitching staff coming into this series. Still, this is far from the sure thing their semifinal matchup against the Hunters was. The Queens can beat the Firebells. They have beaten the Firebells. They have hit Kelsie Whitmore hard, and once these games go to the bullpens, anything could happen.

In their series against the Heights, the Queens proved that they can shut down an elite lineup (their 10-3 win in Game 1) and outslug an elite lineup (their 15-11 win behind three home runs in Game 3). The Firebells, meanwhile, have played six of their last eight games against Boston and were outscored 23-13 by the Heights in the other two. They haven’t been through the fire the way the Queens have and could be in for a surprise. Ultimately, both of these teams will be tested by the schedule of this best-of-five series, and it will take all 15, possibly all 17 players on their respective rosters to emerge with the first championship in WPBL history.

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