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New Year's Eve in New York City

With the new year comes a feeling of turning the page to a new chapter. In reality it’s just numbers on a calendar changing but, in our minds, it can be a powerful force. We as humans will look to almost anything to get out of a slump or a spiral. There are no people better than athletes to find motivation out of literally nothing.

So, for management and players alike, the turn into 2025 is going be to see as a chance to forget the past and look forward. With the season not even 33% of the way done, this is the mentality to have.

Got off to a bad start? Doesn’t matter, still more than two thirds of the season to go. Got off to a good start? Doesn’t matter, still more than two thirds of the season to go.

With the PWHL going from 24-games to 30-games the season has turned into even more of a marathon than previously. Six extra games mean 18 more points on the table for teams to earn. The real race to playoffs begins now and the teams that will succeed are going to be using the new year as a push off.

While the players on the ice are looking for anything to make their season go great, the management of each respective PWHL team are going to be wishing upon the Times Square Ball Drop for some luck to come their way. With no shooting stars in the sky the Ball Drop will have to do. While mind reading might exist, I don’t have that ability so instead I’ll be taking some educated guesses as to what each General Manager and Head Coach is going to be wishing for come 2025.

Boston Fleet

Daniela Pejšová Gets Healthy

The young Czech blueliner was drafted seventh overall in the 2024 PWHL Draft after Boston traded up to get her. It’s no secret why Boston would move up in the draft for her. Despite being one of the youngest players in the league Pejšová’s ceiling is sky high as she presents an intriguing package of high skill and a large frame to make her a force on all 200ft of ice.

She was a top 4 blueliner in Luleå HF’s 2022 and 2023 SDHL championship wins as well. She’s everything Boston needed in a blueliner with the only problem being she got hurt before the season started. While Boston has started to turn their season around some, they still have the worst shooting stats in the league. They’re last in Shots For/60 (23.8) and are fourth in Shots Against/60 (30.4) with Toronto/Ottawa below them in SA/60. Probably not a good thing the two teams considered to be off to a rough start are your companions in that stat.

It’s been a very slow ramp up for Pejšová whose played four out of Boston’s five games and is averaging ~10:23 per game with two games around the 12-minute mark, the other around the four-minute mark, and the most recent game she posted a bit over 14 minutes.

As mentioned above Pejšová has a high ceiling and it makes sense that Boston would rather have her at 100% or close to it in the last half of the season, especially the playoffs, than have her aggravate her injury setting her back. Pejšová is an important piece on the Boston blueline and they need her to make an impact at both ends of the ice. This is a team struggling with shot generation and shot suppression.

She’s going to be a major help with both and help Boston either create a super pairing of Keller-Pejšová or have them on opposite pairings to help them match-up better with opponents like Minnesota was doing with Claire Thompson and Sophie Jaques.

Anyone Not Named Hilary Knight or Megan Keller to be an Offensive Threat

Hilary Knight is at a point per game and Megan Keller is fourth in the PWHL in blueline scoring. That’s fantastic news for Boston fans and exactly what they were hoping for this off-season. Especially Knight finding a way to get back on the scoresheet on a consistent basis.

With those two putting up points like they are and Aerin Frankel coming in on fire surely Boston is a top three team at least. Even with having a game in hand on everyone not named Montréal, Boston is last in points but fourth in points % (0.400). You’d think they’d be in a better position considering they have the highest Team SV% (0.927) in the PWHL to go along with the fourth highest Team SH% (9.24). On the surface everything looks to be where it should be. Once we start diving a bit deeper we can see where the issues are coming from.

Chart showing poor Boston shot rates

Despite scoring at a good rate and not being unlucky nor lucky, Boston finds itself at the bottom of the league in GF/60 where they sit last (2.20) and last in EVGF/GP (1.75). Being five games in it’s hard to figure out who the real Boston is. If it’s the team that scores 2.20 GF/60 then Frankel and co. better be ready to put up a 0.950 SV% each game or wins are going to be hard to come by.

Without doing a full-blown analysis of Boston’s offence one of the more general things they can do to increase their scoring output is getting more shots on goal. It’s not a guarantee but typically the more shots you put on the net the more you’ll score. Their four games have gone 19, 20, 27, 25, and 28 SOG so there’s progression. The problem is that even if you take out the first two games that’s still 26.7 SF/60 and still last in the PWHL.

Goals aren’t going to come from inflating your shot totals by just shooting more from the point so it’s not as though any shot taken will help. However, it is an indication that Boston isn’t putting the type of sustained pressure on needed for consistent goal scoring.

Minnesota Frost

Sophie Jaques Gets Healthy

What do you get for the team where everything is going their way? How about one of their best blueliners back healthy? Unfortunately seems to be a bit of a trend to the start of this season where some of the best blueliners are ending up injured with Pejšová starting the season injured, Ella Shelton getting injured one game in, and then Jaques injured right before the Christmas break.

While Claire Thompson has stepped up and is clearly carrying the blueline, having Thompson and Jaques gave Head Coach Ken Klee a lot of options in how he wanted to deploy his blueliners. Have a dominant pairing of Thompson/Jaques or have each one carry a pair making it difficult on opposing teams to match up. Then of course you add Stecklein into the mix and suddenly there’s no easy pairing to go up against. Now with Jaques out Minnesota loses someone who’s able to push the play up the ice which has been a major boon to their league leading 56.18 SF%.

Chart showing Minnesota domination

The importance of Jaques also can’t be understated. As we just went through above in the Boston section, the more shots on goals you get typically the more goals you see go in. It doesn’t mean if you put up 40 shots you’re guaranteed over six goals but you’re probably scoring a lot. With how good players are now though it doesn’t hurt getting pucks on net as long as it’s not along the perimeter and what Jaques does it take a lot of shots that can turn into dangerous scoring chances. She has three points this season with having a 11.62 S/60 which is among the best among blueliners.

It took her a few games to adjust in Minnesota but being traded to the Fleet was the best thing to happen for both of them. Jaques was put in a position to thrive and did becoming an important part of their Cup run while arguably being a Playoff MVP candidate. Without her ability to move the puck Minnesota doesn’t win and they know it. It’s why Jaques finished top three in every Minnesota playoff game in ice time and out of those 10 games she finishes top two eight times.

Stop Needing to Outscore Their Defensive Problems

PDO chart

This is a bit of a weird one I’ll admit. It’s been pointed out a few times so far in this article that general rule of thumb is more shots, more goals and Minnesota is the best shot suppression team in the PWHL by a lot at 24.47 SA/60. They did this last season too where they ended up at 25.88 SA/60 being the best team in the league at suppressing shots. They were also great at keeping the puck out of their net with a league second best 2.21 GA/60 and league best 1.38 EVGA/GP. The reason they almost missed out on the playoffs was they couldn’t score. Second last in GF/60 (2.12), third in EVGF/60 (1.63), second last in PP% (8.06%), and second last in Team SH% (7.07%). This season they’re scoring like mad being first in GF/60 (3.45), first in EVGF/GP (2.5), second in PP% (28.57%), and first in Team SH% (10.99%). There’s a reason they are tops in the league in points and PTS%. Teams are struggling to match their scoring and they’re struggling to get enough shots to compete with the goals Minnesota is putting up. So why is this on the New Years Wishlist for Minnesota when everything seems to be going so well?

Chart showing poor GA numbers for Minnesota

We haven’t reached the stage of red flags yet where things are going wrong but the yellow flags are out and the warning signs are there. Toronto and, especially, New York have shown some real holes in the Minnesota defensive play. If not for Toronto completely breaking down in the third period and New York not having to come down from being down 3-0 we might be seeing a Minnesota with a different record that doesn’t have them in first.

Apart from the anecdotal evidence I’ve laid out here I have two other pieces that are showing some cracks. There are only two teams with a Team SV% below a 0.910 with one being Minnesota and the other being Toronto. Both are also under a 0.900 SV% with Minnesota at 0.893 Team SV% and Toronto at a 0.896 SV%. You could claim it’s a goalie issue but as someone who watches every game I know they haven’t been perfect however they’re far on the list of problems for me. When the defensive play improves we’ll see the goalie numbers improve and until then these numbers are an indication of what’s happening in front of the goalies.

Montréal Victorie

The Offence Comes Alive

It’s been a bit of a bumpy start for Montréal who are sitting happily in third place but it’s certainly a perilous position. They’ve won four out of five games for the best Win% (0.800) in the PWHL. Yet they’re tied for highest PTS% though because they only have two regulation wins which coincidently came in the only games Marie-Philip Poulin has points and those points were purely goals. Otherwise MPP awkwardly sits at one point in four games which is extremely unusual for her.

It’s certainly not for lack of effort though. She’s putting up a 13.51 S/60 but has a 10.00 SH% and I know age eventually comes for us all however I don’t see this being an age issue. The team just isn’t getting the lucky bounces and it’s not a 100% cohesive unit yet as we can see by the constant line juggling coming from Coach Kori Cheverie.

Chart showing team goal leaders

This isn’t to put the blame or the like onto MPP. Montréal as a whole is struggling offensively. Their highest point producer is Abby Boreen with four points in five games and their highest primary point producer is Laura Stacey with three primary points in five games.

A big part of the problem is that the Montréal PP is currently quite the embarrassment. With their 9.52 PP% they’re the only PWHL team to have a PP under 10%. They’ve been on the PP the most times this season out of any team with 21 PP’s but only have two goals. We’re talking about a PP that features players such as Laura Stacey, Marie-Philip Poulin, and Erin Ambrose. Oh, and those two PP goals? They came in the first game of the season, so they’ve now gone four straight games without a PP goal.

Now I’m going to give Montréal fans some hope here. The PP isn’t going to be operating below 10% for the rest of the season. Eventually they’ll figure it out and at least end up at last season’s 15% PP. Last season the league average SV% was at 0.921and still Stacey/MPP were shooting above 10% with their goals per game above 0.43 GPG. The league average SV% is currently sitting at 0.908 which means sooner rather than later, Stacey and MPP are going to be a lot closer to their career numbers in which for MPP means almost a goal per game whereas Stacey should come in around 0.50 goals per game. The goals are coming Montréal fans and the latest game versus Minnesota should be a positive indication of things to come.

Ann-Renée Desbiens to go OFF

I want to be very clear with this one right off the bat. This isn’t me thinking the Montréal staff is hoping Desbiens gets it together or that I personally think she’s playing poorly. She was good last season and she’s been good this season too. With the league average SV% at 0.921 last season Desbiens finished with a 0.923 SV%, 0.625 QS%, one shutout, and a 7-5-4 record. Maybe the record should have been a clue that Montréal wasn’t going to look great in OT games as that carried over into the playoffs where Montréal lost three straight OT games to be swept by Boston. It’s very hard to blame Desbiens for those loses too. She had a 0.931 SV% in the playoffs and only one game where Boston managed to score more than two goals on her. You can trust Desbiens to be consistently above average but above average isn’t Desbiens’ consistent ceiling.

She’s an elite goalie who has earned the starting spot on Team Canada since 2021 for a reason while racking up four Gold Medals in five tournaments. She was the best goalie in the 2022/23 PWHPA season/tour and won the PWHPA championship to go along with it. You can win with the way Desbiens is playing right now or with how she played last season. There’s nothing inherently wrong with her play that warrants concern. The Frost won the Walter Cup last season with two goalies who definitely weren’t perfect last season. What would make winning a Walter Cup easier though is for Desbiens to reach her elite, Goalie of the Year level play. Every GM/coach wishes their goalie went off the way Aerin Frankel has especially during her 2024 Walter Cup finalist run. With the skill that Desbiens has that’s a lot more realistic goal than other goalies.

New York Sirens

Ella Shelton Comes Back

Chart showing Ella Shelton big point share

This one was obvious right? Of course a team wants the best blueliner in the world right now back in the line-up. They need her back because she takes this team from consistently good to consistently great. The defensive depth on this team has stepped up in a major way making the loss of Shelton hurt a little bit less than you’d expect. Micah Zandee-Hart and Maya Nylén Persson have taken over top pair duties with immediate success. Allyson Simpson has stepped up onto the second pair and has looked great. She’s added an offensive touch to the blueline at even-strength that’s helped to make up for the absence of Shelton. Credit to New York in building a blueline that could handle such a big loss. We’re seeing how Minnesota is handling the loss of Sophie Jaques and it’s not been a fun time for them. Their offensive generation has taken a noticeable hit and while they squeaked away a shootout win versus New York, they had very little to give versus Montréal.

Ella Shelton top 3 point leader

For those unfamiliar with the work of Ella Shelton lets go over who New York is missing. Her defensive play is great. Probably the lone defensive bright spot on a struggling New York team last season. Schroeder or Levy could at least be comfortable knowing things wouldn’t get too out of hand with her on the ice.

Then of course there’s Shelton elite offensive production. She finished third in the PWHL in primary points (18) beating out or tying everyone not named Natalie Spooner or Sarah Nurse. Shelton had seven goals last season which beat players such as Hilary Knight, Taylor Heise, and Kendall Coyne Schofield. She had 10 PP points and 10 even-strength points making her dangerous whenever she was on the ice. She could drive the offence to a level few could match.

In New York’s two regulation losses this season they’ve gone 0/10 losing each game by two goals. Does her being in the line-up turn those into wins? Maybe not both but it’s hard to ignore the impact she was capable of having. Yes New York is having a very good season so far but you can tell they miss her presence.  

Find a Second Line That Works

Every team to have ever existed wishes they had a depth scoring that could keep up with their first line. Be very convenient being an offensive juggernaut that just outscores it’s opponents by a ridiculous amount giving the fans comfortable victories that don’t shorten life spans. That doesn’t happen so teams are just hoping for a depth player every so often to score a goal. What teams do rely on though is when the first line isn’t going that the second line is capable of stepping up. Obviously not consistently or that team would be rolling over everyone but have at least someone on the second line who can be a scoring threat. Ask Montréal how lack of secondary scoring hurt them last season. Look at how Minnesota benefitted from it in the playoffs where Michela Cava could have won Playoff MVP as she gave them a great 1-2 punch in the line-up. Minnesota is even benefiting from it now with Dominique Petrie and Michela Cava providing secondary scoring to support Heise/Coyne Schofield who are leading the way.

New York is benefiting from a top line that is going off thanks to Alex Carpenter and Sarah Fillier deciding to own the league. Where they’re starting to struggle is in the secondary scoring category. They don’t have a reliable line yet to throw over the boards to push the offence. They’ve gotten depth scoring but there’s a reason they sit in third despite having the best top line in the league. Sirens Head Coach Greg Fargo clearly understands the issue as he moved Jessie Elridge to the second line to help spark something there while Noora Tulus went to the top line.

Results haven’t been forthcoming so far however there are signs that Fargo might be onto something here. Abby Roque is currently at a 5.6 SH% and while last seasons 14.6 SH% was probably an aberration she’s not a 5.6% shooter. Especially as she’s currently seventh in the PWHL in SOG. She’s getting chances and odds are they’ll start going in. Jessie Eldridge is essentially in the same boat as Roque so the right process is being followed goals just aren’t happening. Some more tweaking or a bit more time to let chemistry develop might be enough to set them off sending New York to the top of the standings.

Ottawa Charge

Anyone be Capable of Being a Shutdown Defender

For the first time since the inception of the Ottawa franchise in the PWHL fans are looking at their goals against numbers and feeling good about themselves. A 2.63 GA/60 isn’t great but it is tied with Minnesota and New York who are the best teams in the league. When you look over at EVGA/GP Ottawa has a 1.50 EVGA/GP which is second best in the league. This is helping Ottawa have the best even-strength goal differential in the league to boot at a plus three. What hasn’t been helping their GA/60 is their 76.2% PK which has allowed five goals against. So apart from the PK teams are having issues scoring on them which is great news for Ottawa fans who last season were second last in both GA/60 and EVGA/GP. It’s fair to say that Ottawa has been playing better defensively this season than previously however Emerance Maschmeyer has been fantastic and an early MVP candidate. Maschmeyer leads the league in SV% while seeing the highest SA/60 among all starting goalies. She’s carrying the defensive load the same way Aerin Frankel is in Boston and if you’ve talked to Boston fans recently they’re unimpressed with how often she’s been left out to dry.

I’d say Ottawa is giving Maschmeyer a bit more support than Boston is giving Frankel but it’s not by much more. They at least spend some time in the offensive zone to help keep some of the pressure off Maschmeyer. The concern that I’m sure the coaching staff and management is having is how much longer can Maschmeyer keep this up? It’s definitely possible it’s all season and Maschmeyer is named MVP to go along with it. Now they tried this last season to the tune of a fifth place finish and no playoffs. They have Aneta Tejlarova who is their best defensive blueliner but there’s no one on the blueline who you’d either put out with Tejlarova or put out before/after her with the same level of confidence. That option doesn’t look likely to be internal as Ronja Savolainen and Stephanie Markowski are helpful additions to the blueline though don’t really move the needle defensively in the way the team needs it. Ottawa has shown to not be afraid to make a trade, potentially one with Toronto is a good fit.

Best Players be the Best Players

Ottawa is far from being out of the playoff race but they certainly haven’t made it easy on themselves. While Emerance Maschmeyer has certainly shown up and shown off her elite goaltending, the rest of the team is struggling to keep pace. They currently sit fifth in GF/60 at 2.30 with the only team below them being Boston. They’re sitting in a fine spot in terms of EVGF/60 at 2.00 which is tied with New York and Montréal but what’s noticeable is their 13.33% PP. They’re only one of two teams, the other being Montréal, who have a PP that is below 20%. That’s leaving goals on the table that they’ve needed and haven’t gotten. All of this can be pointed to one part of Ottawa’s game missing and that’s their best players being their best players. The PP is where those players should be getting some easy points but it’s not happening.

Now full credit to Tereza Vanišová here who has come out of the gate on fire this season. When she first got to Ottawa the trade was looking heavily in Montréal’s favour but Vanišová has six points in six games for fifth in PWHL points and her five primary points have her in sixth in the PWHL in primary points. She’s doing her job. I’m sure she’d appreciate some help though. It’s not as though Vanišová is doing it all alone. Kateřina Mrázová, Danielle Serdachny, and Jincy Roese all have four points in six games. Last season that type of production would have had Ottawa right in the middle of the standings. When you and only one other team, Montréal, are the only teams with only one player in the top 15 of PTS/GP it’s probably not a good sign. For Montréal it’s not holding them back because they’re finding scoring up and down the line-up. It’s not happening for Ottawa so they need their best players to take on the majority of the scoring. It hasn’t happened yet which is why Ottawa is already fighting for their playoff lives six games in.

Toronto Sceptres

Someone, Anyone be Natalie Spooner-lite

Coming out of the playoffs Toronto knew one thing for certain: Natalie Spooner would not be playing at the start of the season. For a team that finished first in the PWHL that’s a big blow but they still finished first. That should indicate they can handle the loss, at least temporarily. Especially since the team went out and brought in Ottawa Charge MVP Darryl Watts as well as former Toronto Six star player Emma Woods. Then of course they go out and draft Julia Gosling to go along with Izzy Daniel. The season Spooner had was incredible. She was by far and away the best player in the league. She scored 20 goals in 24 games which is ridiculously good especially when factoring that 0.921 league average SV%. I’ve written and talked about Spooner’s season a lot. It’s hard to imagine anyone matching it and Toronto knew they couldn’t match it. Even if Spooner started the season healthy, she probably doesn’t repeat that performance.

What Spooner brought to Toronto last season was someone to lead the charge to the top of the standings. While the team was floundering Spooner stepped up and won games for the team. With her leading the way the rest of the team fell in line turning into a powerhouse. The problem Toronto has run into now isn’t that they don’t have the far and away MVP on their team. It’s that no one is leading the charge offensively in the way Spooner did even on a smaller scale. Renata Fast is a point per game but she has no goals and only half her points are primary points. Sarah Nurse has five points but who is taking over her offensive role if she’s taken over Spooner’s? Watts has four primary points in six games but only one goal. This is a team in search of someone to take the offensive reigns of the team alongside Nurse and lead. They’re not dead in the water but the concern is starting to build especially since the Sceptres refuse to release a timeline on Spooner’s return.

Offence From the Backend

This is going to raise some eyebrows and I understand. How could Toronto want more from its blueline when Renata Fast is seventh in points in the PWHL with only Claire Thompson ahead of her among blueliners in points? Even if you look at primary points Fast remains second among blueliners though it does become a four-way tie. Maybe the rest of the blueline is slacking a bit offensively however the Sceptres blueline has a combined seven primary points which matches the other top teams in the league. Maybe we can point to goals from the blueline being an issue which it kind of is for Toronto though not one that’s extremely concerning at the moment. Toronto has two goals from it’s blueline with the most any other team having being three. Even pointing out Toronto’s fourth place PP doesn’t provide a whole lot of evidence to the case considering they’re still sitting at a 21.42 PP%. All the numbers seem to point to Toronto’s blueline being just fine at the very least so what is my issue with the Toronto blueline? It’s a bubble waiting to burst unless the Toronto blueline switches how it creates offence.

Right now how it creates offence is give the puck to the forwards and hope they do something. Their SOG generation is the worst in the PWHL. Their blueline leads the league in combined points but is last in SOG from the blueline. The next three teams in points (Ottawa, New York, Minnesota) are also the top three teams in SOG generation. By virtue of being on the top pair and being the main puck carrier of the pairing Fast is always going to look fine when it comes to point production. She finished fifth last season in points among blueliners but does drop to seventh when looking at PTS/60. It’s helpful being on the ice with the best player in the league and Fast isn’t inept offensively so she’ll always put up points. They lack an offensive dynamo though and even if Fast was adequate for the job she can’t do it alone. They need someone on the blueline who can be trusted to create offence and right now that’s no one which has led to their current scoring issues and why it always looks like a Herculean effort to score goals.

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