TIG Roundtable: Walter Cup Finals Predictions

We’ll be the first to admit we didn’t see this final matchup coming.

The first-ever Walter Cup will see a matchup between #3 PWHL Boston and #4 PWHL Minnesota.

PWHL Boston defeated PWHL Montréal in three games, one of which went to triple overtime. In a huge upset, PWHL Minnesota came back from being down two games to none against PWHL Toronto and completed the reverse sweep in game 5.

It’s anyone’s championship to win. Here’s how the TIG team thinks it’ll all shake out.

Who wins? How many games will it take?

Maya Smith: Boston in 5. Coming into the playoffs I would have said Minnesota takes it in 3 if they got this far. But, Boston played a very complete series against Montréal and proved that I have no idea what I’m talking about. I don’t think it’ll be easy but I do think they can do it. 

Lydia Murray: I honestly have no idea. This is a matchup few, if any, were expecting, and it truly feels like it could go either way. Boston’s overall play against Montréal was probably stronger and more consistent than Minnesota’s against Toronto but underestimating a team that just reverse-swept the #1 seed feels like a terrible idea. My guess is this series goes at least four games, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it takes all five. If the extra rest doesn’t lead to a slow start for Boston, I’m inclined to say they ultimately take it since they’ve been playing great hockey for weeks while Minnesota whimpered into the playoffs, but it’s really hard to predict. Either way, we should be in for another great series. 

Geremy: I really shouldn’t be allowed to make predictions any more side eyes Toronto. Boston in five? Sure that sounds good. We’re going to be treated to five coin flip games where each team gets 20 shots a piece so your guess is as good as mine. I think I give the edge to Boston because they have shown for a few weeks now they can come up with that game-winning goal. I also like the puck mobility they have on the back end which gave Toronto issues especially once they lost Natalie Spooner. Their ability to create offensive chances just dove off a cliff. 

Mike: I know that I want a five-game series, but I suspect Boston will come away with the victory here in the end before we get to Game 5. I’ll say we go four games and Boston rides the red-hot Aerin Frankel to a Walter Cup victory. Just a week or so ago, I would have said Boston had the worst odds of lifting the Cup among the playoff teams. The playoffs are a much different animal than the regular season and right now Boston looks like a team to be feared in the postseason. 

Emma S: Considering both of my predictions were… not even close last time I doubt this is going to be correct but I’ll say Minnesota in five. While I really like the style of play Boston has been putting on the ice, I think the momentum of taking down the No. 1 team is really going to help Minnesota out here. I never want to bet against playoff Aerin Frankel, but I think Minnesota’s depth is healthier than Montréal’s was, and it’s going to be harder for Boston to take advantage of Minny the same way they did in round one. 

Name an X-Factor for each team.

Maya Smith: For Boston, I’ll go with Lexie Adzija. She has just been on her game lately. Lexie is physical and she can score, and I think that could be the difference maker, especially up against someone like Lee Stecklein.

For Minnesota, I’m going with Kendall Coyne-Schofield and Taylor Heise (I’m picking two because I organized this so I make the rules). These two are arguably the best players for Minnesota and so far both have only produced in the final game of the first series. I think if they can get going, we can see them make a huge difference for the team. 

Lydia Murray: For Boston, it’s Amanda Pelkey. I don’t know about you, but I didn’t have Pelkey tied for the playoff lead in points on my bingo card. She’s been playing the best hockey of her PWHL career since the playoffs started and earning the extra minutes to show for it (her average TOI has jumped from 10:45 in the regular season to 19:07 in the playoffs). Granted, all three of Boston’s playoff games going to overtime helps with the minutes jump, but it was a lot more dramatic than her usual linemates’, so it’s still meaningful. It’ll be huge for Boston if she can keep up anything resembling this level of play in the Finals.

As for Minnesota, I’m going with Kendall Coyne Schofield. She only notched two assists in the series against Toronto– one on the power play and one on an empty-netter–and both came in the final game. She’s their captain and one of their most experienced forwards, so Minnesota will be counting on her to build off that Game 5 momentum and help generate more offense. She has shown on the international stage that she knows how to step up when the lights are at their brightest, so look for her to have a big series.

Geremy: The X-Factor for each team are Lexie Adzija (Boston) and Abby Boreen (Minnesota). As we’ve seen in these playoffs, what these games are coming down to is which teams can get as close to the goal as possible and cause chaos. We’re looking at two teams that are going to bog the offense right down which means getting to the net is going to be hard, especially being effective in front of the net. Both Adzija and Boreen are very good at working in front of the net so we could be seeing this come down to which player can give their team the edge in front of the net.  

Mike Murphy: For Boston, I’m going with mid-season acquisition Susanna Tapani. The veteran Finn has made a huge impression since being acquired in the Sophie Jaques blockbuster and Boston wouldn’t be here without some of the big plays she’s made both in the regular season and the playoffs.

For Minnesota, I’ll go with Liz Schepers. Before Game 5 against Toronto, Schepers had the primary assist on every goal scored by PWHL Minnesota – three, to be exact. She enters the final with as many points as she had in 19 regular season games and an NCAA title victory to her name. PWHL Minnesota is going to need depth scoring in this series because we saw what happened to this team when it couldn’t find it in the regular season. 

Emma S: For Boston, I’ll say Megan Keller. I think in the first round, a lot was expected out of Aerin Frankel, and while she delivered I think Boston’s defense really needs to step it up in round 2 and eliminate some of the shot discrepancies. While the offense also needs to start clicking shot-production-wise, making Frankel’s life easier starts with the defense and Keller. If she’s able to settle in and control the puck defensively, that’ll make a huge difference for Boston. Meanwhile, for Minnesota, I’m gonna say Taylor Heise. I’ve loved watching Heise play in high-stakes situations the last few years, and while she was relatively quiet to start the playoffs (and to end the regular season), the two goals in Game 5 give me reason to believe she’s really going to jump out in the finals, and that’s going to make all the difference against Frankel and Boston.  

Rookie to watch:

Maya Smith: Sophie Jaques. She has really excelled since coming to Minnesota in a trade earlier in the season. Not only is she super solid on defense, but she also produces offensively. She goes into the finals tied with her teammate, and Renata Fast (eliminated in the semi-final) for the most points by a defenseman in the postseason. She gets it done when it counts. 

Lydia Murray: Alina Müller. Müller had a mostly strong semifinal series, but she really kicked it up a notch in Game 3. She was flying all game and earned her first playoff point with the primary assist on the game-winning goal. Her speed and playmaking ability are potential game-breakers, so if she carries that Game 3 play into this series, look out.

Geremy: If Minnesota has a hope of winning this series they need Sophie Jaques to go off. She’s the best puck mover on Minnesota’s backend and it’s not really close. If Minnesota wants the offense they need to beat Boston they’re going to need Jaques to step up again. She did it versus Toronto putting up three points in the last three games and honestly playing some pretty good defensive hockey. 

Mike: I’m stealing Maya’s answer – Sophie Jaques. I mean, c’mon. Boston drafts her, doesn’t utilize her and deploy her correctly, trades her to Minnesota, and now she’s facing them in the PWHL Walter Cup Final. How great is that? Jaques shares the team lead in playoff scoring and is third on the team in iSOG. Oh, and she piled up points against Boston in the regular season after the trade. She’s going to be fun to watch. 

Emma S: I’m going to go a bit off the board and say Theresa Schafzahl. While Zumwinkle, Jaques, Heise, and Müller have all gotten their flowers at points this season, I really love the way Schafzahl has grown into her role as a first-line winger this postseason. The last OT goal for Boston was created in part because of her, and on the line with Müller and Tapani, I think she’s really someone to keep an eye on moving forward into the final round. 

Who will be the series MVP?

Maya Smith: Gotta go with the goalies here. They have been the difference-makers throughout the playoffs so far, and I don’t see that being any different in the final round. It’s unlikely that we’re going to see blowouts on either side, or 6-5 finishes. Whoever makes the most saves takes the MVP in my mind. 

Lydia Murray: I’m indecisive, so I’m copping out again and choosing an MVP from each team. From Boston, it’ll be Aerin Frankel. She made 141 saves in three games last series. Boston is not here without her, and it’s also hard to imagine them winning this series without her. From Minnesota, I think I’ll stick with the goalie theme and go with Maddie Rooney. She wasn’t as busy as Frankel, but she did get two shutouts and played outstanding after taking Nicole Hensley’s starting job. Her play is a huge reason why Minnesota clawed back to beat Toronto, and she’ll need to keep it up if Minnesota hopes to raise the Walter Cup.

Geremy: I have a good feeling about Megan Keller having herself a series. Toronto didn’t have a weapon close to her on the backend and if Minnesota is going to give her room she’s going to generate a lot of rebounds at the very least. That Minnesota defense is a tough nut to crack as we watched Toronto’s offense suddenly dry up. You need special players to help break it and that’s what Keller is. They need her offense more than ever. 

Mike: Aerin Frankel. This is her moment. She’s playing against a team that has Team USA’s last two star starting goaltenders and she has dragged Boston to the Walter Cup Final with her play. She can show the world she’s Team USA’s next star goalie. I’d be shocked if Frankel gets rattled now after how brilliant she was against PWHL Montréal. She’s coming into this series with a .972 Sv% and yielded just four goals to Montréal in three games. 

Emma S: Short and sweet – whichever goaltender comes out on top. A lot of this series is going to come down to the netminders for all of the reasons listed above, and that’s who is going to snag the series MVP award. 

Who will be the playoff MVP? 

Maya Smith: Assuming she doesn’t get lit up in this series, I think it has to be Aerin Frankel. Based on the number of saves she made in the first series alone, she should be recognized. We are seeing Frankel in peak performance and, as a Canadian, that is scary. 

Lydia Murray: Since the playoff MVP will likely go to a member of the winning team, I’m going to echo my series MVP answers. Given how both teams got here, I imagine the MVP will be a goaltender barring epic collapses in this series. So, I’ll say the playoff MVP will be Frankel or Rooney. 

Geremy: Voted on by…whoever gets a vote? It’s going to be Aerin Frankel or Maddie Rooney. The easiest narrative is going to be that because the games are so low-scoring it’s because of the goalies standing on their heads. There’s no doubt both goalies have made a lot of saves. It can also be true they’re benefitting from the hyper-focused defensive play in front of them. I think serious consideration should go to Susanna Tapani with her two OT GWGs in a three-game sweep. If she keeps this up it’s going to be hard to deny her role. 

Mike: Yeah, I’m going with Frankel again – for all the reasons I mentioned earlier. PWHL Montréal is a better team than PWHL Boston but Boston is here because of Frankel.

Emma S: If it’s not Aerin Frankel something seriously must have gone wrong in round 2. Just looking at her output all year and especially in the playoffs, it’s her MVP award to lose based on workload and output. While I love how Rooney has been playing as well, I just think Frankel’s been playing lights-out hockey in a way that has had more of a contribution to Boston’s berth in the final than Rooney’s to Minnesota. 

What would make the higher-seeded team lose (Boston)?

Maya Smith: I realize that I’m a goaltender saying that goaltending will be the decision-maker in this series but I truly think it will be. You could say that Rooney is the reason for Minnesota making it to this round and you can absolutely say the same about Frankel. If Rooney shuts the door, Boston could have a difficult time winning. But, they scored on Desbiens so they should be able to score on anyone. 

Lydia Murray: Perhaps the biggest question as we head into this series for Boston is how the extra rest affects them. They have been red-hot since the international break, with only one shootout loss in eight games. They haven’t had much of a break in that timeframe, and while it’s only four full days off, it’s still a concern. In the playoffs, it doesn’t take long for rust to set in if you’re not careful. Minnesota has just one day off after an emotional comeback, so if Boston struggles to regain their playoff legs out of the gate, it may give Minnesota all the momentum they need to win the series. 

Geremy: Same thing that made Toronto lose. Minnesota is just so suffocating defensively that they’re going to turn each game into a coin flip essentially. Both teams won by timely scoring in extremely close games. If Boston loses it’s because they lost every coin toss. 

Mike: Minnesota has a lot of speed, but Boston matches up better against them than PWHL Toronto did. If Heise can build off her Game 5 performance and play like the gamebreaker we all know she is, she can take over this series. She’s that special. The other thing that could upset Boston’s chances is Minnesota finally figuring things out on the power play. Honestly, that could be a huge story here. These teams had the worst (Boston, 7.5%) and second-worst (Minnesota, 8.8%) power plays in the regular season and here they are, in the Walter Cup Final.

Emma S: Boston is going to have to take advantage of a Minnesota penalty kill that has been (for lack of a better word) abysmal this season. And while their power play hasn’t been good by any stretch of the word either, capitalizing on even one chance will be crucial – which I just don’t know if they can do. If goaltending is still as rock solid as it was in round 1, the open ice will be that much more of a game-changer in round 2 when a power play strikes. If Boston doesn’t take advantage of it at all, I foresee it being a potentially rough time offensively for them.