It was all good just a year ago in Atlanta.
The Dream, under then first-year head coach Karl Smesko, overachieved compared to external expectations, finishing with 30 wins and as the No. 3 seed entering the WNBA playoffs.
They were at home, hosting the No. 6 Indiana Fever, who were without Caitlin Clark, Sophie Cunningham, Aari McDonald and other key players, in what looked like it would be an easy matchup on paper.
There’s a reason, however, that the game takes place on the court and not on paper. The series went three games, with the Dream having homecourt advantage. The story is known now, of how it ended.
The Dream carried a 73-69 lead heading into the fourth quarter, but then the offense disappeared. They went the final 2:32 of the game without a field goal, with it ending after an Aliyah Boston layup, a Rhyne Howard turnover, and a missed 24-footer by Brionna Jones on a blown side-out-of-bounds play.
Four thousand fans left stunned.
Smesko with a look in his eyes similar to a deer seeing a semi truck barreling down on it.
It was pure and utter shock.
“I never want to experience that feeling again,” guard Allisha Gray said during training camp this season.
But the best thing about basketball is that there’s always a chance to redeem yourself.
“I love being around this team. We all bought into the vision,” said point guard Jordin Canada after the Game 3 loss. “Like coach said, ‘What is delayed is not denied.’ Atlanta will be back. I guarantee that.”
For the Dream, it may have taken a year, but they are back in the playoffs. This time, though, despite the Fever controlling their destiny up until the final day of the regular season, the Dream will be facing off against the upstart Washington Mystics instead.
“Over the break, we spent a lot of time studying all of the playoff teams. Obviously, Indiana had the greatest chance, but you don’t want to put all your eggs in one basket,” Smesko told The IX Sports. “You want to be prepared no matter what the matchup is, and you never know how playoffs are going to play out. So you want to be ahead of the game as much as possible. I think that we did a good job with the the break getting prepared for whatever situation comes.”
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The Dream will have homecourt once again, but this year they are a year older, a year wiser and with a new x-factor that they didn’t have at their disposal last season.
If the Dream want to make sure that Gray doesn’t have that feeling again, they’ll have to defeat a Mystics’ team that won the season series against them, 2-1.
To do that, here are five keys for the Dream.
Don’t allow Washington to set the physicality
There are two teams in the WNBA who determine how the referees will call a game when it comes to fouls and physicality more than any other teams — the Mystics and the Valkyries.
Washington is a team that plays a hard-nosed defensive style, with an elite rim protector in Shakira Austin and a lockdown perimeter defender in Sonia Citron.
But they are more than that.
Austin and Kiki Iriafen play tough in the paint — not dirty, just physical. It’s physical to a point where it puts the refs in a position to decide if they are going to call fouls early or not.
If Washington is able to set the tone physically, the Dream will have to adapt to it.
In the first game after the FIBA Women’s World Cup break, Angel Reese reflected on the physical style of play that is similar, in a way, to what the Mystics want to do.
“That was my first time playing in that environment where it’s super physical,” Reese said. “You can get away with a lot more. I love those refs. They were amazing. Oh my God, fire.”
The Dream can play physically, but they’ve had to adjust to inconsistencies throughout the way that WNBA referees would call games.
If the Dream allow Austin, Iriafen, Cotie McMahon and Michaela Onyenwere to set the tone early, they have to be ready to adjust on the fly.
Push the pace
Like the Valkyries, Washington uses its defense to set up its offense. They not only use their physicality defensively to determine what teams can get away with, but they also control the pace of play, too.
Washington ranked No. 14 in pace this season, averaging 80.7 possessions per 40 minutes.
The Dream, in turn, ranked No. 5 in the league with an average pace of 83.9. Smesko, too, likes to have his defense set up his offense, but in his case, it’s done by getting DEALS (deflections plus steals) in order to have the team push the ball in transition.
Eight of the Dream’s 14 losses this season came in games when the pace was below their average mark.
Defend the paint
The two teams are No. 1 and No. 2 in points in the paint per game, with Atlanta having a slight advantage over Washington.
A lot of those points come from driving to the rim by players like Jordin Canada and Howard, but it’s also due to Reese’s play — especially with her offensive progression as the season has gone on.
For the Mystics, though, it’s a lot of traditional back-to-the-basket points with Austin, Iriafen and rookie Lauren Betts.
Betts has continued to develop as her rookie season has progressed, finding a softer touch outside of the restricted zone.
But another rookie, McMahon, could be an x-factor for head coach Sydney Johnson’s team. She brings an energy off the bench, coming in to make an immediate impact on offense and defense. She’ll go down low and get physical in the paint.
This is where the loss of Brionna Jones could hurt the Dream.
Reese has been playing out of position all year as the team’s starting center, but is one of the favorites to win the Defensive Player of the Year Award.
Outside of her, though, they’ll be counting on Naz Hillmon and DeWanna Bonner, primarily, as the paint stoppers.
If the Mystics go with a two-big lineup with Betts and Austin in at the same time, the Dream will have to decide if it wants to thrust rookie Madina Okot into action to counter the size advantage that the Mystics will have.
They’ll look to pound it down low and get the Dream — specifically Reese — into early foul trouble.
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Apply pressure to Georgia Amoore
It’s easy to forget that Georgia Amoore missed all of last season, her rookie season, after tearing her ACL in training camp. While it was a slower start than she — and fans — would like to have seen, she really settled in as the season progressed.
While the defense and pressure that the Mystics apply gets a lot of attention, let’s not forget that the Dream have the top three players in steals per game on their roster in Howard, Canada and Reese.
Canada’s defensive prowess will be key for the Dream against the Mystics — especially as the primary defender on Amoore.
We’ve seen earlier this season that Howard will guard Citron on most of the possessions as her primary defender, so that’ll leave Canada on Amoore. With Canada being one of the fastest guards in the league in overall speed but also lateral speed, she should be able to take away the angles and passing lanes from Amoore.
What’s more, while Amoore is an advanced ball handler, she can still get flustered when she’s being pressed and blitzed off of ball screens.
Smesko isn’t afraid to ramp up the defensive pressure and call for a blitz off of screens, which should result in the Dream jumping the passing lanes and giving Amoore fits.
Count on the veterans
The Mystics, in a lot of ways, are reminiscent of the Dream from last season. They’ve outperformed external expectations, reaching a point that many didn’t think they could reach.
There’s usually an estimated clock on when a team will arrive (think of the Michigan Wolverines with their super sophomore team a season ago, learning how to lose in March Madness before succeeding in the NCAA Tournament), and the Mystics are ahead of schedule.
They aren’t just happy to be here, though. They are a really good team, and one that buys into Johnson’s approach fully. But they are still young. Onyenwere and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton are the veterans of this team, but the rest of them are young. They entered the season with an average age of 23.5, making them the youngest team in WNBA history.
So while, yes, they have nothing to lose, they also have everything to gain.
It’s similar to the Dream last year, as they arrived as a top seed despite being picked to finish seventh during the preseason.
While the Mystics have Onyenwere and Laney-Hamilton, the Dream have nine-year vet Canada, two-time WNBA champion Bonner as well as the rest of the core who gained valuable playoff experience a season ago.
It’ll also be Reese’s playoff debut, and she’s said multiple times she’s leaning on her veterans to learn how to play in the playoffs.
It’s the biggest advantage that the Dream have, and if they are able to channel the experience against the young Mystics, it could be the only advantage that they need.
