The Golden State Valkyries faced two extremely different teams in the first two rounds. A high-octane, transition Dallas Wings squad and a veteran-laden, clutch Las Vegas Aces.
The Atlanta Dream, their WNBA Finals opponents, are closer to the Valkyries. They rank in the top five in most defensive stats, are a rebound-heavy team and can score enough to be a problem.
“They’re also defensive-minded,” Kaila Charles told The IX Sports. “They’re also very big, and they have that tenacious attitude. They’re going to be playing hard. They’re not going to lay over and ever give up. So, it’s going to be a good test for us.”
While the Valkyries swept this series in the regular season, they played all three games over 11 days between June and July, before both teams hit their stride. Just one of the games was decided by double digits in that stretch, too.
“When we played them in the regular season, even though it was earlier, it was difficult for us because they had really good size and their coach is pretty smart,” Charles said. “But I think we’re good as long as we just continue to just be true to who we are and being composed is going to be very important because they’re very physical, just like us. So being able to withstand that physicality, and not allow them to dictate, and for us to be able to still do what we do, I think that would be the key.”
After the Dream lost the two games in Golden State in June, they went on to lose six of seven.
However, Valkyries coach Natalie Nakase noticed the Dream have been a bit quicker, increasing their points in transition to 14.1% of their scoring since adding DeWanna Bonner on August 27. It previously accounted for 12.9%.
Transition is one area where Golden State has been especially stifling on defense, holding opponents to fewer than 3 fastbreak points per game in the playoffs. The Valkyries haven’t been turning the ball over, but their defense has also locked in against transition offense generally.
Bonner has averaged 13.2 points per game in the postseason while shooting 36.4% from 3-point range. She might be the most difficult matchup for the Valkyries.
“They’re playing with a lot more fast pace,” Nakase said. “Obviously, having DeWanna Bonner is different. The spacing is different, so you kind of have to look at both situations. But more importantly, how they’re playing currently, I think, is winning out in terms of the game planning.”
Last season with Phoenix, Bonner averaged 16 points per game against the Valkyries while shooting 55.2%, including 53.3% from 3-point range.
The Valkyries gave up the fewest points in the paint, while the Dream gave up the fewest second-chance points, so this could be a series that is won or lost on the perimeter.
Golden State is already a team that likes to shoot from range. Their 31 paint points per game are last in the league and they shoot from beyond the arc 30.3 times (at 34.4%), while Atlanta shoots 32.5% from range – the fourth-lowest in the WNBA – at 27.5 attempts per game.
One of the Valkyries’ keys to beating Las Vegas was getting offensive boards for second chances. That might be more challenging against the front-loaded Dream.
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Meanwhile, the Dream average 9.1 steals a game and are forcing opponents to turn it over more than 18 times per game in the postseason. The Valkyries turn the ball over the fewest of any team in the WNBA, but if they get sloppy, Atlanta is a team that can capitalize in transition.
“They’re a very defensive-oriented team as well,” Veronica Burton said. “They take a lot of pride on that end, and you see that, and they’re playing really well. They’re playing great basketball right now, and so again, it’s just everyone wants it. Like we both really want it.”
Allisha Gray, who leads the Dream with 22 points per game in the postseason, missed the last two games of the semifinals with New York with a hand injury. Her availability is a question mark, but if she is available, she is one of the best offensive players in the league.
Golden State hasn’t played the Dream with Gray on the floor with Bonner.
Reese posted a double-double in all three regular-season meetings with the Valkyries, too, even in the losses. Her 12.1 rebounds per game led the WNBA and her 521 total set a single-season record. She was also first in the league with 4.8 offensive rebounds per game.
But while Reese played well, the Valkyries took almost everything else away on offense, which might be a bit more difficult with Bonner in the mix.
The Valkyries were outrebounded 98-94 over the three games in the regular season, while Reese played well but the rest of the lineup struggled around her.
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In an ideal world, the Valkyries will switch many bodies onto Reese the same way they did Wilson in the semi-finals. But Reese is shooting 35% from deep since the World Cup, so every closeout she has to make could be a head start to the rim. Do the Valkyries play the percentages and hope that Reese slows down and look to cheat inside?
It will be one of their toughest matchups yet.
“Whether it’s just with their size, with their shooting, the depth that they have. I mean, they have a lot of challenges,” Tiffany Hayes said. “They have a really good team. They got a lot of great players, Olympians on their team, so we’ve got a lot to look forward to, to try to beat them. So we got to try to look at every aspect of that.”
