The Walter Cup Final is set.
This year, the Montréal Victoire will face the Ottawa Charge to crown a new champion of the PWHL. Ahead of Game 1 on Thursday night, here’s what our experts at The Ice Garden are expecting from this series:
What will it take for the Montréal Victoire to win their first Walter Cup?
Dylan Nazareth: They need to do what they couldn’t last year in the playoffs: beat Gwyneth Philips. They had scoring troubles at times in the first round, and they’ll need big performances from their star players and continued depth contributions from across the lineup.
Mike Murphy: I think this should be Montréal’s series to lose, but Philips is going to be a problem for them. Philips went Super Saiyan in the Boston series to the tune of a .951 save percentage. She is the riddle that Montréal needs to solve. Another factor here will be discipline. Montréal may be great on the penalty kill, but they will need to quickly calibrate to how the officials are calling the series.
Reid Lemker: Finding a way to solve Gwyneth Philips. Montréal was able to score enough goals to beat a very good Maddie Rooney in the series against the Frost, but I think the difficulty will be ramped up even more in this series against Philips and the Charge.
Melissa Burgess: Depth scoring. We all know how good Marie-Philip Poulin is, but she cannot carry this team entirely by herself — try as she might.
Maya Smith: I agree with Melissa: the team needs to step up for Poulin the way that she always steps up for them. They need to do all of the little things right and play their polished game, no matter what Ottawa throws at them.
Lydia Murray: I agree with all my colleagues. Depth scoring will be important, but solving Philips is going to be Montréal’s biggest challenge. To do that, they need to learn from Boston’s mistakes: quantity and even shot quality don’t really matter if you don’t screen Philips and don’t get to the rebounds she gives up.
What about the Ottawa Charge?
Dylan: Ottawa has been the most counted out team this season, and now they’re back in the Final. To secure the win, they’ll need to find a way to keep scoring messy goals. That includes needing to better on the power play. Montréal took many poor penalties in the first round, so if those opportunities keep coming, that’s when the Charge need to strike.
Murphy: Ottawa needs to stay out of the box, let Philips see all the shots coming her way, and find a way to out-chance Montréal’s scoring depth. Fanuza Kadirova and the third line need to turn the heat up on Montréal, draw some penalties, and get in front of Desbiens. The Charge aren’t going to overshadow Montréal with skill, so they will need to out-work them and win the possession game at evens.
Reid: Ottawa needs to find success on the power play. Montréal gave the Frost ample power-play opportunities, but Minnesota wasn’t able to cash in often enough. Scoring on Ann-Renée Desbiens will be a challenge for Ottawa, and they need their power play to supplement their five-on-five offence. The Charge were 2/13 (15.4%) on the power play against the Boston Fleet in round one.
Melissa: The little things. Getting shots on net, yes, but also capitalizing on rebounds and taking advantage of the bounces as they come. Also key to get in front of the net; like with Boston, if the goalie can see the puck, she’s going to stop it. Winning puck battles along the boards will also help the cause.
Maya: If they could beat Aerin Frankel, can they beat Ann-Renée Desbiens? There are definitely areas where she is stronger than Frankel. If Ottawa plays their game and keeps the depth scoring coming, they could take this.
Lydia: Ottawa needs to keep up a lot of what they were doing offensively against Boston if they also hope to crack Desbiens. They need the power play to stay hot and the scoring to keep coming from all over the lineup. However, they’re going to have to take the netfront chaos up a notch. They did a good job of screening Frankel when they had the chance, but she’s significantly easier to screen than Desbiens. Frankel is generously listed at 5’5”, while Desbiens stands as one of the PWHL’s taller goalies at 5’9”. That means more bodies, and ideally some bigger ones, have to get in front of her to take her eyes away, and taking her eyes away is the best way to beat her.
Who will be the series MVP?
Dylan: Marie-Philip Poulin. Even though she’s not fully healthy, she still managed to find another gear to close out round one. It’s hard to bet against her in the Finals.
Murphy: Philips. She has the ability to steal this series or, more likely, come close to stealing it and get the nod as the MVP playing for the losing team.
Reid: Laura Stacey. I think Montréal takes the series, and I think Stacey will lead them in scoring in the series. Stacey was a bit inconsistent in round one. She scored a hat trick in Game 1 but was held off the scoresheet in Games 3, 4, and 5. With Poulin’s health still a question, I think Stacey is Montréal’s best bet for consistent offence.
Melissa: Philips. The Victoire are so strong offensively, but look at what Philips has already accomplished in her young career. She was MVP last year and I expect nothing less this year.
Maya: It’s hard not to say Philips. She got it last year, even when the team lost, and she plays at another level in the playoffs. If Montréal can find their scoring, I think Poulin. She dragged this team into the finals.
Lydia: It’s going to be Poulin or Philips. It’s low-hanging fruit to pick those two, but they both dragged their teams into this series, and they’re going to have to drag them out of it too.
Series Prediction?
Dylan: Montréal in four.
Murphy: Montréal wins in four games but three of the four games are decided by a single goal. The goaltending in this series is out of this world and I think we’re in for an unforgettable series.
Reid: Montréal in five. As Mike said, the goaltending in this series will keep games close. I think Montréal will control more of the play, but Philips and the Charge are plenty good enough to steal a couple of games. I just don’t think you can win a five-game series against Montréal with the kind of shot discrepancy Ottawa had against Boston (the Fleet outshot the Charge 142-94 across their four-game series). That said, Gwyneth Philips.
Melissa: Ottawa in five. Embrace the chaos.
Maya: Montréal in five and the games are close.
Lydia: Montréal in five with every game decided by a single goal, plus maybe an empty-netter. I can also see it ending in four games, but Poulin’s uncanny clutch gene comes out strongest in “do-or-die” games, and they’ll need her at her best to end things.
BONUS: How many games go to overtime?
Dylan: Based on last year’s Finals and Montréal’s playoff history against Ottawa, I’m going with three.
Murphy: I love this question — let’s go with two games going beyond 60 minutes. I’ll also predict one game going beyond a single overtime.
Reid: I’ll go out on a limb and say we only get one overtime game in a five-game series. I expect three of the five games to be decided by one goal, and one of those games will go to overtime.
Melissa: I say two go to overtime, with one of them being 0-0 at the end of regulation. Just look at this goaltending!
Maya: I’ll say two of the five go into overtime, and I think the rest are one-goal games.
Lydia: I’ll also say two games are headed to overtime, with one being a multi-OT extravaganza. If both end in a single overtime though, I think we could see a third.